Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees Pick 8/2/19

Boston Red Sox (59-51) at New York Yankees (68-39)
When: 7 p.m., Friday, August 2
Where: Yankee Stadium, New York

Moneyline: BOS +115/NYY -125 (Bookmaker)
Runline: Red Sox +1.5/Yanks -1.5
Total: 10.5

Starting Pitchers: Eduardo Rodriguez (13-4, 4.13 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) vs. James Paxton (5-6, 4.72 ERA, 1.51 WHIP)

Bronx Beds

Rest can’t be overlooked as a factor here. The Yankees have a significant advantage in that not only did they not have to travel on Thursday, but they didn’t even have to play on Thursday, as they had the day off following a two-game set at home against Arizona. Boston, on the other hand, had to finish up a three-game series against Tampa Bay, which ended in a rather non-competitive 9-4 defeat that served no purpose other than to delay the Sox getting out of Boston and heading to the Bronx.

Boston’s game against Tampa Bay wasn’t over until 11 p.m. Eastern, meaning that the Red Sox had to travel late while the Yankees got to rest and recharge. At this point in the season, that’s likely an essential thing for both teams, especially with them compressing four games into three days.

Paxton’s Problems

To say that James Paxton is having issues on the mound right now seems a rather obvious statement, as the Yankees hurler has gone from not getting run support in low-scoring games to getting lit up by the opposition. In his past two starts, against Colorado and these Red Sox, Paxton didn’t make it to the fifth inning either time, giving up four earned runs to the Rockies and seven to the Red Sox, including four home runs.

Part of that can be blamed on the unique shape of Fenway Park compared to every other stadium in the game, but Yankee Stadium isn’t exactly a pitcher’s paradise either, and that fact’s underscored by the fact that Paxton has given up three home runs in his past two starts in the Bronx. The talent is there to produce a low-scoring contest, but he is just not getting the job done at the moment.

Eduardo’s Excellence

On the other end of the spectrum, Eduardo Rodriguez has been fantastic for the Red Sox since the start of July. He’s been the winning pitcher in seven of his past nine starts, has won five in a row and hasn’t seen his team lose a game that he’s started in North America since June 9 against Tampa Bay. That qualifier has to be added because the one game in his past nine starts that hasn’t been a Sox win came against the Yankees during their bizarre series in London, where playing on a soccer pitch drastically inflated the offensive numbers.

Rodriguez did an excellent job showing what he could do on American soil against the Yankees in his most recent start, which saw him handcuff the Bronx Bombers for three earned runs in 5.2 innings in a 9-5 triumph. In fact, Rodriguez has been darn near unbeatable on American soil outside of Fenway Park this season. Since losing to Oakland on April 4, Rodriguez has made nine road starts, and the Red Sox are 8-1 in those games, and the lone loss came against the Blue Jays — on a visit to Canada.

The Historicals

This visit marks the final of the year to the Bronx for the Red Sox, and they’re likely quite thrilled to leave it behind, as Yankee Stadium has tortured them this season. The Yanks are 4-1 against Boston in the Bronx for the year, and 7-4 on the season against their ancient rivals. The record is actually a little deceptive, as Boston only recently caught up at all with New York by winning three of four when the teams met at Fenway.

Betting Trends

• The Red Sox have won Rodriguez’s past six Friday starts.
• The Red Sox have won six of their past seven against a left-handed starter.
• The Yankees have lost Paxton’s past five starts.
• The over is 5-0 in the Red Sox’s past five against a left-handed starter.
• The over is 12-1 in Rodriguez’s last 13 road starts.
• The over is 10-1 in the Yankees’ last 11 games.

Weather Report

The mercury will be high, with temperatures projected to reach 85 degrees at first pitch in the Bronx.

Dan’s pick

If you remember yesterday, I went with the Rays against the Red Sox because I thought the pitching matchup favored a young and inconsistent Brendan McKay against Boston’s struggling starter. This time, the pitching matchup drastically favors the Red Sox. Rodriguez is pitching very well and is incredibly comfortable away from home (possibly more so than on the road), making him the ideal choice to start what is a must-win for the Red Sox.

By contrast, Paxton is a mess right now. The only thing I can see that the Yankees have going for them is the rest factor. While I do expect that to play a role in this series before all is said and done, this seems the wrong matchup to play that risk. I think Rodriguez gives the Red Sox enough in the tank to get through Friday before fatigue sets in during the Saturday doubleheader. Give me the hot pitcher and the plus money with the Red Sox and let’s taken advantage of 5Dimes sweet lines and get the extra few bucks.