Blue Jays vs. Pirates Expert Pick 5/7/23
Date: Sunday, May 7th, 1:35 ET
Location: PNC Park
TV: SNPT
Money Line: Blue Jays -134/Pirates +114
Total Line: 9
Betting Preview
Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Blue Jays on Sunday, May 7th at PNC Park. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.
Betting Odds
| ML | RL | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | -134 | -1.5 | O 9 (-110) |
| PIT | +114 | +1.5 | U 9 (-110) |
Blue Jays vs. Pirates Projected Lineup
| Batting Order | Position | |
|---|---|---|
| George Springer | 1 | CF |
| Bo Bichette | 2 | SS |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 3 | 1B |
| Matt Chapman | 4 | 3B |
| Daulton Varsho | 5 | RF |
| Alejandro Kirk | 6 | C |
| Whit Merrifield | 7 | 2B |
| Danny Jansen | 8 | C |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 9 | CF |
| Yusei Kikuchi | – | SP |
| Batting Order | Position | |
|---|---|---|
| Ke’Bryan Hayes | 1 | 3B |
| Bryan Reynolds | 2 | CF |
| Andrew McCutchen | 3 | LF |
| Carlos Santana | 4 | 1B |
| Connor Joe | 5 | LF |
| Rodolfo Castro | 6 | 2B |
| Mark Mathias | 7 | RF |
| Ji Hwan Bae | 8 | 2B |
| Austin Hedges | 9 | C |
| Roansy Contreras | – | SP |
Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record
Toronto Blue Jays: 20-14 SU / OU 15-17 / Runline 17-17
On a record of 20-14, the Blue Jays are 4th in the AL East. Currently, they are seven games out of the division lead. Against the Pirates, they will be seeking their 3rd straight win. On the road, they have a record of 11-11 while going 9-3 at home. Toronto’s overall series record is 7-3.
- The Blue Jays have covered the runline in two straight games and have a season-long run margin of 0.3.
- The Blue Jays have been favored in 73.5% of their games and have runline records of 6-6 and 11-11 at home and on the road, respectively
- So far, the Blue Jays have an over/under record of just 15-17.
Against the Blue Jays, the Pirates are looking to shake a six two game losing streak. Yet, their record of 20-14 is stil good for 1st in the NL Central. At home, Pittsburgh has gone 9-6 and 11-8 on the road. So far, their overall series record is 6-3.
- The Pirates have two straight losses vs. the runline and have a season-long run margin of 0.8.
- The Pirates have been favored in 23.5% of their games and have runline records of 7-8 and 13-6 at home and on the road, respectively
- Through 34 games, the over has hit in half of the Pirates’ games at 17-17.
Pitching Matchup
| Pitcher | Appearances | Started | IP | Record | ERA | WHIP | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yusei Kikuchi | 6 | 6 | 31 | 4-0 | 4.02 | 1.25 | 8 |
Starter Yusei Kikuchi comes in with an overall record of 4-0 for the Blue Jays. Having made six appearances, his ERA is 4.02 and he has a K/9 figure of 1.0. Additionally, he has a FIP of 5.44 and an OBP of .312.
During Yusei Kikuchi’s last game, he pitched for 4 1/3 innings. The Blue Jays went on to lose to the Red Sox by a score of 7-6. Kikuchi earned a no-decision, allowing five runs on nine hits.
| Pitcher | Appearances | Started | IP | Record | ERA | WHIP | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roansy Contreras | 6 | 6 | 33 | 3-2 | 4.09 | 1.42 | 1 |
Roansy Contreras has an overall record of 3-2, and will get the start for the Pirates. With six appearances, his ERA currently stands at 4.09, while his K/9 figure is 0.8. Additionally, he has a FIP of 3.66 and an OBP of .343.
In Roansy Contreras’ last outing, the Pirates lost by a score of 4-1 to the Rays. In the game, he allowed four runs on six hits over 5 1/3 innings.
Blue Jays vs. Pirates Offense Outlook
The Blue Jays have played 34 games and are currently ranked 10th in the league, averaging 4.8 runs per game. Toronto ranks 14th in home runs, (37) and have a collective batting average of .258, including .250 on the road and .259 at home.
Toronto Blue Jays Top Hitters On The Road
| Player | BA | HR | SLG | WOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | .360 | 7 | .651 | .452 |
| Bo Bichette | .323 | 4 | .516 | .387 |
| Matt Chapman | .341 | 4 | .612 | .436 |
| Daulton Varsho | .280 | 4 | .500 | .360 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | .322 | 0 | .407 | .347 |
Toronto Blue Jays Top Hitters: Last Five Games
| Player | BA | H | R | HR | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daulton Varsho | .480 | 9 | 3 | 2 | .897 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | .412 | 7 | 3 | 2 | .800 |
| George Springer | .140 | 3 | 3 | 1 | .260 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | .333 | 5 | 3 | 0 | .417 |
| Bo Bichette | .180 | 4 | 4 | 0 | .320 |
The Pirates have played 34 games so far and have an average of 4.8 runs per game, putting them 11th in the league. Pittsburgh has hit 36 home runs, ranking them 17th in the MLB. Their overall batting average is .250, while hitting .250 on the road and .227 at home.
Pittsburgh Pirates Top Bats
| BA | OBP | SLG | RBI | HR | SB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds | .320 | .358 | .566 | 23 | 5 | 5 |
| Jack Suwinski | .244 | .366 | .561 | 19 | 7 | 5 |
| Andrew McCutchen | .238 | .339 | .465 | 15 | 6 | 4 |
Pittsburgh Pirates Top Hitters: Last Five Games
| Player | BA | H | R | HR | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds | .333 | 6 | 2 | 0 | .550 |
| Connor Joe | .200 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .400 |
| Carlos Santana | .167 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .267 |
| Ji Hwan Bae | .167 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .167 |
| Jack Suwinski | .100 | 1 | 1 | 1 | .400 |
Free MLB Pick
Kikuchi has looked really good in three of his last four games. The Toronto Blue Jays may only be 2-5 in their last seven games, but they’re scoring runs. They’ve played 39 runs over their last 7 games for an average of just under 6 runs per game.
The Pirates continue to struggle, losers of six games in a row and only scoring a paltry 8 runs over that span! I’m betting the Jays at -127.
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