Betting Totals

Mastering MLB Totals: Expert Tips from Handicapper Kevin West

When it comes to wagering on baseball, understanding the ins and outs of MLB totals can give you a real edge. It’s all about strategy and analysis. So, let’s dig into my top tips to help you conquer the world of MLB totals betting and score some winning bets!

Familiarize Yourself With the Starting Pitchers

Pitchers play a major role in determining the total runs in a game. Take a good look at their recent performance, ERA, strikeouts, and walks. Don’t forget to consider their home and away records and how they match up against the opposing team’s lineup via viewing career pitcher vs. hitter stats. Strong pitchers can keep scores low and make the under look mighty tempting.
Tip: Pay especially close attention to the pitcher’s last three starts. Is he keeping allowed runs to a minimum? Is he getting bombed? Another Tip: With starting pitchers going less innings these days, consider betting the 5-inning line. That way you have more control over your outcome and don’t get bit by an unexpected rookie pitcher entering the game out of the bullpen.

Don’t Sleep on the Bullpen

Starting pitchers may get all the glory, but a solid bullpen can be a game-changer. A shaky bullpen can lead to late-game fireworks and push that total over. On the flip side, a dominant bullpen can lock down offenses, resulting in lower-scoring affairs. Keep an eye on teams with reliable relievers to gauge how they might affect the final tally. There are sites that show you their recent usage as well. It’s good to know which horses are in the stable. Its rough betting a game, expecting a solid closer to come out and pitch, only to be told that he’s down for the game because he pitched in the last couple games. If you’re going to try to win long term, this is stuff you have to be aware of.

Dive into Head-to-Head History

History often repeats itself. Take a deep dive into past matchups between the teams you’re eyeing. Look for patterns in run production and check if certain pitchers have given one team trouble or if specific lineups consistently tee-off against certain hurlers. While it’s not always 100% accurate, you can really use this type of information to your advantage.

Weather and Ballpark Factors Matter

Mother Nature and ballpark quirks can have a real impact on scoring. Keep an eye on the weather conditions, including not just how many miles per hour the wind is blowing, but which direction. It’s on you if you bet an over at Wrigley Field and tune in only to find out the flags are blowing in at 25mph! The elements can affect how that ball travels. And let’s not forget about those quirky ballparks with unique dimensions. Some favor the hitters, while others give pitchers the upper hand. Factor these conditions into your calculations for a more accurate read on potential scoring outcomes.

Lineups Hold the Key

A team’s lineup can make or break the scoring party. Take a closer look at each team’s batting order. Consider recent form, on-base percentages, and power numbers of those hitters. Also, be sure to note any injuries or absences that could hinder offensive production. A powerhouse lineup facing a weak pitching staff? That’s a recipe for some high-scoring action! It’s not always 100% accurate, but you’ll win more than you lose if you’re in the know.

Umpire Tendencies

Umpires might not be the star of the show, but they do have a sneaky influence. Some umps have generous strike zones, leading to more strikeouts and potentially lower-scoring affairs. Others have a tighter zone, meaning more offensive opportunities. Keep tabs on umpire tendencies to gain an edge when predicting total runs. A great site for this info is Swish Analytics.

Ride the Betting Wave

It pays to keep your finger on the pulse of the betting market. Pay attention to line movements and public betting trends. Significant line shifts can indicate sharp action or breaking news that’s shaking things up. And those public betting patterns? They can clue you in on where the recreational/novice bettors are leaning, helping you spot potential value or contrarian plays. Don’t ever feel good about siding with the general public and don’t ever feel bad about being on the opposite side. Most baseball bettors are misinformed and it’s actually a good thing to be opposite of “the squares.”

Tip: This may seem too simple to mention, but I’ve had enormous success betting MLB totals simply by searching for two teams with good starting pitchers that have pitched well lately, usually go six innings and are pitching against cold offenses. This betting opportunity doesn’t present itself daily, but when these stars are aligned, your wallet tends to fatten!

Successful over/under wagering requires thorough research, attention to detail, and a disciplined approach. Take your time, trust your analysis, and adapt as the season unfolds. With these tips in your betting arsenal, you’ll be ready to tackle those MLB totals like a pro! Speaking of pros… Be sure that you’re betting with a baseball bookie that offers dimelines! Ignoring this important variable is one of the biggest mistakes bettors make as betting into a 20-cent line is more expensive and makes it more difficult to beat the odds! It’s free! You just need direction of how to take advantage of it!