Bet the Runline: Brewers vs. Reds 5/9/22

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds

Date: Monday, May 9th, 06:40 ET

Location: Great American Ball Park

TV: Bally Sports Wisconsin

Money Line: Brewers -170 / Reds +141 (Bovada – Where WE play! GREAT SPORTSBOOK!)

Total Line: 7.5

STARTING PITCHING

Milwaukee: Brandon Woodruff (3-1, 5.18)
Cincinnati: Luis Castillo (0-0, 0)

Key Injuries

Milwaukee Brewers
Andrew McCutchen: Illness (COVID-19 IL)
Josh Hader: Back (OUT)
Pedro Severino: Suspension (OUT)
Jake Cousins: Elbow (10-DAY IL)
Justin Topa: Elbow (10-DAY IL)

Cincinnati Reds
Nick Lodolo: Back (10-DAY IL)
Jose Barrero: Wrist (10-DAY IL)
Nick Senzel: Illness (COVID-19 IL)
Jonathan India: Hamstring (10-DAY IL)
Luis Castillo: Shoulder (10-DAY IL)
Mike Minor: Shoulder (10-DAY IL)
Joey Votto: Illness (COVID-19 IL)
Jake Fraley: Knee (10-DAY IL)
Donovan Solano: Hamstring (10-DAY IL)
Justin Wilson: Elbow (10-DAY IL)
Daniel Duarte: Elbow (60-DAY IL)
Justin Dunn: Shoulder (10-DAY IL)
Max Schrock: Calf (60-DAY IL)

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Milwaukee Brewers: 19-10-0 SU / OU 12-14-3 / Run Line W/L 15-14-0
Cincinnati Reds: 5-23-0 SU / OU 18-9-1 / Run Line W/L 8-20-0

The Cincinnati Reds host the Milwaukee Brewers on Monday, May 9th at Great American Ball Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 06:40 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Milwaukee as the favorite (-170), with an OU line set at 7.5.

Recent Form

The Brewers will look to bounce back from a tough loss to the Braves by the score of 9-2. Milwaukee’s pitching staff finished the game by allowing 9 hits, leading to 9 runs. With their 4 hits, the Brewers could only muster 2 runs. The loss came as Milwaukee was the betting underdog, getting 125.0 on the ML. Together, the Brewers and Braves combined to surpass the over-under betting line set at 7.5 runs. Even with this game going over the total, Milwaukee still has an over-under record of just 12-14-3.

The Brewers are looking to continue adding wins, as they are 3-2 over their last 5 games. This record has come on an average scoring differential of 14. Their hot play has been driven by an offense that typically averages 4.76 runs per game. But, over this stretch this figure has bumped up to 7.6 So far, Milwaukee has won over half of their 10 series played, going 6-3-1.

In their last game, the Cincinnati Reds picked up a 4 run win over the Pirates by a score of 7-3. In the winning effort, the team’s pitchers held the Pirates to 3 runs and 3 hits. The Reds’ offense ended the game with just 2 runs on 6 hits. In the game, Cincinnati was able to take care of business as they were the favorite at -135.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 5 games, winning at a rate of 20.0%. In terms of the over-under, the Reds and Pirates combined to surpass the line of 8.0 runs. Overall, the team has gone over the betting line in over half of their games, going 18-9-1.

The Reds come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 2-3 over their last 5 games. During this time, the team has a run differential of -11. Despite their struggles in the win column, the offense has averaged 6.0 runs over their last 5 games. This is an improvement over their season-long mark of 3.57. Cincinnati has a below .500 series record of just 1-7-1.

Pitching Matchup

For the Brewers, Brandon Woodruff gets the start. Heading into action, he has a record of 3-1. To date, Woodruff has an ERA of 5.18 while lasting an average of 4.82 innings per appearance. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.231. Despite opposing team’s finding success getting on base against Woodruff, he has managed to keep the ball in the ballpark, allowing just 0.75 home runs per 9 innings. On the season, Brandon Woodruff has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 30.0%, while averaging 6.2 K’s per game. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 2.96 walks per contest.

For Reds, pitcher Luis Castillo to the mound, making his first stat of the year. Even in his first outing, the Reds are hopeful for a big time performance from Castillo, as Cincinnati’s bullpen is among the MLB’s worst groups. Combined, Cincinnati’s bullpen staff has one of the league’s worst ERAs at (4.92). This season, Cincinnati’s bullpen has an LOB% of 71.7%%. In addition, the Red’s opponents are having no problem hitting for power, averaging 1.14 deep shots per 9 innings.

Milwaukee vs Cincinnati History

Today’s matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds will be their 3rd meeting of the season. With Milwaukee leading the season series, 3-0. Through 3 games, the series’ over-under record is 3-0, with the average run total sitting at 8.16 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 7.33 runs. Going back to last year, Milwaukee won the season series, 10 games to 9. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 9-10. Last year, the Brewers and Reds averaged 8.16 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 3.53 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series.
Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Reds are 16-39 in their last 55 games as an underdog.
Reds are 15-38 in their last 53 overall.

Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Look for Milwaukee to keep things rolling against the Reds, as they have already picked up 3 wins against their division rival. Even though the Brewers’ offense sputtered in their final two games vs Atlanta, the team dominated Cincinnati pitching in the previous series. Look for the Brewers to cover at -1.5 runs.

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