Watching line movement is something that one must incorporate into their daily baseball handicapping duties if their serious about winning at baseball betting. While it is important to keep an eye on line changes, it should not however be the only variable one uses to handicap a game. Each day (late in the afternoon) we’ll post games that have shown a “noteworthy” change in odds.
The reason for this is that there are a few different types of line moves:
Steam Plays/Sharp Action: This is the type of movement worth paying attention to. This could be defined as a line moving because a betting syndicate (astute group of handicappers) have hammered the game with big money. Often times their opinion is opposite of the public, which is another way to tell that it’s sharp action. (assuming you know how to read public/anti public plays using consensus info)
The public one siding a game: If a game is being “one-sided” which means all action on one side, the bookie will try to balance the action by moving the line to attract action on the other side. This is not the type of play you want to follow.
Head Fakes: This is something that is rare and probably not something you need to learn unless your betting for a living and watch lines on a regular basis. At times, a betting syndicate will hammer one side to gain an attractive price or line on a game and then come back later in the day and hammer it twice as hard the other way. Very sneaky eh? They don’t call sharps “sharp” for no reason!
In summary, comparing an opening line to a current line can and often times will show you that a game has moved in one direction or another. It’s your job to decipher what type of line move has taken place and use it to your advantage if possible. Following line moves is just one of many variables you should use in your betting arsenal. It can and will increase your winning percentage a few points which can be the difference between being a winning or losing handicapper.
Today’s (4/11/07) Noteworthy Movement: tba
