Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners ML Pick 7/2/24

Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners
Date: Tuesday, July 2nd, 9:40 ET
Location: T-Mobile Park
TV: MASN
Money Line: Orioles -116/Mariners -101
Total Line: 7.5

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Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Seattle Mariners and the Orioles on Tuesday, July 2nd at T-Mobile Park. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

At 9:40 PM ET, the Orioles and Mariners will square off in an AL matchup. This one is taking place at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, and the Orioles are the favorites on the money line (-116). The Mariners have lost two straight and their money line odds are sitting at -101.

George Kirby will be on the mound for the Mariners, while the Orioles are starting Grayson Rodriguez. Baltimore is 53-31 and the Mariners are 47-39, and they are both 1st in their respective divisions. The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs, and the game can be seen on MASN.

Orioles vs. Mariners Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Baltimore Orioles: 53-31 SU / OU 43-31 / Runline 48-36
Seattle Mariners: 47-39 SU / OU 35-46 / Runline 40-46

Orioles Records & Recent Play

The Orioles will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Rangers with an 11-2 loss. Baltimore was actually the heavy favorite at -174 going into the game but fell behind big early, as the Rangers scored three times in the 2nd and added another three runs in the 4th.

Cole Irvin took the loss for the Orioles, going just 3 2/3 innings, and giving up five earned runs on five hits. Ryan O’Hearn was hot at the plate, going 3/4 with a run scored, but the Orioles’s other run came in the 2nd inning.

With an overall record of 53-31, the Orioles are tied with the Yankees for the AL East lead. Baltimore is 19-7 against other teams in the AL East. The Orioles will be looking to pick up a win today, as they are just 4-6 over their last 10 games.

So far, the Orioles have been good both at home and on the road. They come in with a 29-17 record at home and are 24-14 on the road. As the road favorite, the Orioles have gone 16-9 this year, and they are 43-25 when favored overall. Heading into today’s game, the Orioles have dropped three straight games on the road.

When betting the run line, the Orioles have been a solid play on the road this season, going 24-14. Their average run margin on the road is 1.5, which is slightly better than their overall average run margin of 1.3. They have been a good run line bet as the underdog, going 12-4, but have struggled in that department in their last three road games, failing to cover the run line each time.

When the Orioles are on the road, the over has been a popular bet, as their games have gone over the total in 43 of 74 games. The O/U line for today’s game against the Mariners is set at 7.5, which is lower than their season average of 8 runs per game. Their games have averaged 9.1 runs per game this season, and their over/under record when the line is set at 7.5 runs is 6-6.

Mariners Records & Recent Play

Luke Raley had a big game at the plate for the Mariners in their most recent game vs. the Twins, going 3/5 with a run scored and an RBI. Seattle’s offense scored their other two runs in the 5th inning. The Mariners were the slight favorite at -106 at home but took the loss, 5-3.

Luis Castillo started for the Mariners, going five innings and giving up three earned runs on six hits. He only had three strikeouts in the outing and took the loss.

Seattle leads the AL West by three games over the Astros, heading into today’s game vs. the Orioles. The Mariners are 47-39 overall and have gone 17-5 against other teams in the AL West. They will be looking to snap a two-game losing streak today, and they are just 3-7 across their last ten games.

At home, the Mariners are 28-14 this season, and they are 19-25 on the road. Seattle’s overall series record is 13-12-2, and they have dropped four straight series. As the underdog, the Mariners are 17-18 this year, and they are 6-4 as the underdog at home. Seattle has also lost two straight games as the underdog.

Seattle’s run line record is 40-46, including 21-21 at home. The Mariners’ average run margin is +0.1, and they have a +0.7 run differential at home. Their run line record as the favorite is 21-30, compared to 19-16 as the underdog. In their wins, they’re outscoring opponents by an average of 3.0 runs per game, while in losses, they’re being outscored by 3.5 runs per game.

Seattle’s games have averaged 7.7 runs per game this season, and the Mariners have a 35-46 over/under record. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 10-15. Overall, 39.5% of their games have had over/under lines set at 7.5 runs, while the average line for their games is 8 runs.

Pitching Matchup

Grayson Rodriguez has been pitching well for the Orioles, as he comes into the game with a record of 9-3 and an ERA of 3.72. So far, he has made 14 starts and seven of them have been quality starts. Rodriguez’s ERA at home is 2.23, compared to 5.9 on the road. In his most recent outing, he gave up two earned runs in seven innings of work and got the win. Looking back, he had given up at least two earned runs in three straight starts before that outing. Opponents are batting .237 off Rodriguez this season.

Seattle is sending right-hander George Kirby to the mound today vs. the Orioles. He has made 17 starts this season and has a record of 7-5 with a 3.35 ERA. Kirby’s WHIP for the season is currently .97, and he has turned in 10 quality starts. In his last outing, Kirby went six innings, giving up one earned run on four hits. He finished with seven strikeouts in that outing. Kirby has been pitching well recently, as he hasn’t given up more than two earned runs in any of his last three outings. So far, he has been much better at home, going 5-1 with a 3.45 ERA compared to 2-4 with a 4.39 ERA on the road.

Orioles vs. Mariners Offense Outlook

So far this season, the Orioles have been the top-scoring team in the league, averaging 5.2 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.5 runs per contest. Not only do they lead the league in home runs, but they also have the league’s best slugging percentage and OPS. Baltimore also has the top isolated power (ISO) in the league.

Gunnar Henderson has been a big reason for the Orioles’ offensive success this season, as he is 2nd in the league with 26 home runs and is batting .288. Adley Rutschman is also having a strong season, batting .294 with 15 homers. Henderson has been hot of late, going 11/28 in his last seven games, with two homers. Colton Cowser has also homered three times in his last six games, but he is just 4/20 in that stretch.

Seattle’s offense has been one of the worst in the league this season, as they are averaging just 3.9 runs per game, which is 27th in the MLB. They are also near the bottom of the league in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. The one positive for the Mariners is that they are 5th in the league in walks. So far, they have been a better offensive team on the road, averaging 4 runs per contest.

Cal Raleigh has been a bright spot for the Mariners this season, leading the team with 14 home runs and 50 RBIs. However, he is batting just .202 overall. Julio Rodriguez is hitting .247 and has gone deep seven times. Over his last six games, Raleigh has two homers and is 5/20. Mitch Garver has also gone deep twice in this stretch, but he is just 3/19 in his last six games.

Free Orioles vs. Mariners MLB Pick

George Kirby put together an outstanding month of June, not giving up more than two earned runs in any of his five starts. Kirby didn’t allow a single homer in four of his five outings for the month and will need to be sharp against a dangerous Orioles lineup. For game one of this series, I like the Mariners on the money line. This one figures to be a tight, low-scoring game, but look for the Mariners to pull it out late.

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