Atlanta Braves vs. Tampa Bay Rays Pick to Win

Atlanta Braves vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Atlanta Braves (59-28) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (57-34)
Date: 7/8/23
Where: Tropicana Field, Tampa Bay, Florida
Betting Odds: Atl -148/TB +124
Runline: Bravos -1.5 (+110)/Rays +1.5 (-130)
Over/Under: 8.5

Braves vs. Rays Opening Thoughts

What’s the first thing you think about when you hear “Tampa Bay Rays?” If you’re anything like me and every other baseball fan, your first thought is “They’re good!” The bookies love it when we get brainwashed by “long term recent form”, as these preconceived notions are a real bankroll killer.

What we tend to ignore is short term recent form. A team like the Tampa Bay Rays may have a winning record at 57-34, but as Janet Jackson says… “What have you dont for me lately?” In Saturday’s case, not much! The Rays bats have gone cold and believe it or not, they’ve been the worst hitting team in baseball over the past six games with a team batting average of .179. This team’s lack of hitting has produced a 3-7 record over their last seven games.

Cooling Off

TB will send 22-year-old righty Taj Bradley to the mound on Saturday. Bradley started the season off nicely for a young arm, with an ERA in the mid-3’s, however, things have gone downhill for him since the start of June. He had five starts in the month of June in which he had a 6.26 ERA. out of those six starts, he really only pitched well in one game. He’s had one start in July so far and got blasted at Seattle where he allowed nine hits in only 3.1 innings. In summary, he’s struggling. It won’t get any easier for him today when he faces the 59-28 Atlanta Braves, who have won nine of their last ten games and are steamrolling opponents with 14 home runs in their last six games.

Not a Fair Fight

If Tampa’s cold sticks, struggling pitcher and Atlanta’s excellent recent form weren’t enough adversity, it gets even worse as the Braves will feature ace pitcher Spencer Strider. The wicked right-handed has struck out a whopping 155 batters in only 98.1 innings. Strider hit a rough patch in a pair of consecutive starts on June 8th-14th, but has rebounded nicely, getting back to his dominant self, allowing only four earned runs over his last 19.2 innings. He’s fanned 28 over that span, while allowing only three free passes.

The great thing about Strider is that he usually throws over a hundred pitchers, which means less exposure to the bullpen. Atlanta pen isn’t bad by any means, but the less pen, the better.

Hotlanta Bats

A bunch of Braves players are hot at the plate right now. The following stats are over the past seven days: Sean Murphy .438, Matt Olson .364, Ronald Acuna .320, Ozzie Albies .304 (With 4 homers!) and Marcell Ozuna .280.

Positive Variables to Support our Prediction

• The Braves have won Strider’s last seven starts. Six of those wins were by three runs or more. The other was by two.
  ATL has won 11 of their last 12 games vs. a winning team

   

• The Bravos have beaten interleague opponents in 8 out of their last 9 contests
• The Braves are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starting pitcher
• Atlanta is 5-1 in their last six road games
• The Braves have won 69.2% of their last 65 games
• The Braves are 40-19 in their last 59 Saturday games
• The Rays are 0-6 in their last 6 games.

How the Public is Betting the Braves/Rays Game

Both squares and sharps bettors alike are backing the Atlanta Braves to the tune of 68%. It pains me to be on the same side as novice baseball bettors, but heck, even they win 49% of the time, so it’s not always a perfect science!

Kevin West’s Pick to Win

Atlanta Braves -145. As noted above, you can probably get away betting the runline, as the Braves are killing it in Strider’s starts, however, despite TB’s recent crap steak and Atlanta being on the road, I’m laying the wood and paying full price at -145. Good luck!

Note: Do yourself a huge favor today. Make today the day that you quit wasting your hard earned mone. You can bet on games for a WAY cheaper price at BetAnySports Sportsbook! Overpaying for betting odds makes it very difficult to win long term!