Astros vs. Guardians: Expert Picks & Predictions

Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians
Date: Saturday, September 28th, 6:10 ET
Location: Progressive Field
TV: BSGL
Money Line: Astros -101/Guardians -117
Total Line: 8

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Cleveland Guardians and the Astros on Saturday, September 28th at Progressive Field. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

From Progressive Field in Cleveland, we have the Astros and Guardians facing off in an AL matchup. This one gets started at 6:10 PM ET and is being televised by BSGL. The Astros are 1st in the AL West, while the Guardians are leading the AL Central with a record of 92-68.

Justin Verlander will start for the Astros, while the Guardians will go with Ben Lively. Houston is currently favored on the money line, and the over/under line is at eight runs. Lively is 0-1 this season, and Verlander has a record of 21-6.

Astros vs. Guardians Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Houston Astros: 87-73 SU / OU 65-89 / Runline 82-78
Cleveland Guardians: 92-68 SU / OU 68-81 / Runline 82-78

Houston picked up a 5-2 road win over the Guardians in the most recent game of this series. The Astros offense got off to a fast start, scoring one run in the first and adding two more in the 2nd. On the other side, the Guardians got on the board with two runs in the 4th and added their final run in the 9th.

Ronel Blanco started for the Astros and picked up the win, going five innings and not giving up a run. He finished the game with three strikeouts but issued two walks. Joey Cantillo struggled on the mound for the Guardians, giving up three earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings of work.

Zach Dezenzo and Victor Caratini each homered for the Astros, while Alex Bregman went 3/4 with two doubles. Kyle Tucker also had a three-hit game at the plate.

Astros Records & Recent Play

The Astros are 87-73 overall this season, and they lead the AL West by four games over the Mariners. This year, they have gone 29-23 in divisional games. Houston is playing game two of their series vs. the Guardians, and they lead the series 1-0.

At home, the Astros are 46-35 this season, and they are just above .500 at 41-38 on the road. As the favorite, the Astros have gone 67-51 this season, and they are 24-22 as the favorite on the road. So far, their overall series record is 27-22-2.

When the Astros are on the road, they have a run line record of 44-35. They have a run line record of 27-15 as the underdog and 55-63 as the favorite. Their average run margin in all games is 0.6 runs per game. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.7 runs per game, while their average run margin in losing games is -3.1 runs per game.

Today’s over/under line of 8 runs is slightly below the combined run average of 8.6 runs per game when the Astros are on the road. Houston has played in 92 games with over/under lines set higher than eight runs, and their over/under record is 65-89 for the season. When the over/under line is set at eight runs, their record is 15-14-2.

Guardians Records & Recent Play

Cleveland comes into today’s game vs. the Astros with an overall record of 92-68, which has them leading the AL Central by six games over the Tigers. The Guardians will be at home today, where they are 50-29 this season. So far, they are 30-22 against other teams in the AL Central.

The Guardians hope to bounce back after dropping the first game of this series vs. the Astros. Overall, they have a series record of 29-16-6 this year. As the favorite, the Guardians are 64-35 and 28-33 as the underdog. Their overall record is 6-4 across their last ten games.

While the Cleveland Guardians have an overall run line record of 82-78 this season, they have been more profitable on the road, going 43-38 against the run line. Their average run margin on the road is +0.4, compared to +0.7 at home. They have also been a solid bet as an underdog, going 36-25 against the run line in those games.

The Cleveland Guardians are playing host to the Houston Astros today, and the over/under line is set at eight runs. The Guardians’ games have averaged 8.3 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 68-81. When the over/under line is set at eight runs, their record is 13-21-6. Overall, 71 of their games have had over/under lines set above eight runs, which accounts for 44.4% of their games this season. Cleveland has hit the under in their last four games.

Pitching Matchup

Right-hander Justin Verlander gets the start for the Astros today as he faces the Guardians on the road. He has made 16 starts this year and has a record of 4-6 with a 5.55 ERA. Verlander’s WHIP for the season is 1.40, and opponents are batting .265 off him this year. In his most recent outing, Verlander finished with a no-decision, giving up six earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Verlander has been hit or miss this year, as he has allowed at least five earned runs in three of his last five starts.

Ben Lively will be looking to build off his last outing, where he picked up the win and gave up just one earned run in five innings of work. In that outing, he only allowed three hits, issued one walk, and gave up one homer. Looking back over his last four starts, Lively has finished with a no-decision, win, win, and loss. His ERA for the season is 3.80, along with a record of 13-9. Lively has made nine quality starts this year, averaging 6.98 strikeouts per nine innings. For the season, he has allowed 23 homers and is averaging just 2.76 walks per nine innings.

Astros vs. Guardians Offense Outlook

Yordan Alvarez has been the Astros’ top power threat this season, as his 35 homers are the best mark on the team and 8th in the MLB. Alvarez also comes into the game with the top RBI total on the team at 86. For the season, he is batting .308. Alex Bregman has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 13/38 in his last ten games with three homers.

As a team, the Astros are 3rd in batting average and 11th in runs scored. They are also among the league leaders in strikeouts and have been very good at avoiding strikeouts. Overall, they are 8th in team OPS and have the 8th-best slugging percentage in the league.

Jose Ramirez has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 10/27 in his last seven games, including three home runs. For the season, he is batting .277 and is 3rd in the MLB with 115 RBIs. Josh Naylor is 2nd on the team with 31 homers but is batting just .242 for the season.

Overall, the Guardians are averaging 4.4 runs per game and are 10th in the league in home runs. They have been a better offensive team at home this season, averaging 4.7 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .238 and have the league’s 4th fewest strikeouts.

Free Astros vs. Guardians MLB Pick

You would think that at some point, Justin Verlander would start to turn the corner, but across his four starts in September, he has given up 21 earned runs, including six his last time out against the Angels. On the other side, Ben Lively hasn’t gone past six innings since the end of August. All of this adds up to taking the over at eight runs as the best bet on Saturday.