Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Pick

Arizona Diamondbacks (15-15) vs. Miami Marlins (13-16)
When: 6:40 p.m., Thursday, May 6
Where: LoanDepot Park, Miami
Moneyline: ARI +121/MIA -131 (BetOnline)
Runline: D-Backs +1.5/Marlins -1.5
Total: 7.5

Starting Pitchers: Madison Bumgarner (3-2, 5.58 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) vs. Pablo Lopez (0-2, 2.34 ERA, 1.10 WHIP)

Nose in the Scale

The Diamondbacks didn’t have to play the Marlins last year, and they were likely just fine with that situation because Miami has been a problem for Arizona over the past two seasons in which the teams have met. The Marlins have now won five of six meetings between the teams in South Florida, and the past two games weren’t really all that close. The Diamondbacks were able to stay in the opener until the Marlins bombed them with six runs in the eighth to turn a 3-3 tie into a 9-3 rout, and it only got worse in Game 2 when the Marlins scored six runs in the first two innings.

Arizona’s biggest problem on this trip is that Miami is cashing in early and putting the Diamondbacks in a deep hole before they can even get settled into the game. So far, in the first two innings of this matchup, Miami has plated nine runs to nothing for the Diamondbacks, who didn’t break through until the fifth inning against Sandy Alcantara and didn’t break through at all against Ross Detwiler. Falling behind again would put the Dia-mondbacks on track to get swept, which hasn’t happened to them in 2021 outside of a two-game set with Oakland.

Barely Scratched

Given the situation and the way he’s pitching, Madison Bumgarner is the perfect pitcher for Arizona to send to the mound right now.It looked like Bumgarner might have lost something in the first two weeks of the season, but he’s allowed just six hits and two runs over his past 17 innings of work. That includes a seven-inning no-hitter on April 25, in which his command of the strike zone proved excellent, as Bumgarner fanned seven and didn’t walk anyone in that contest.

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When he’s on, Bumgarner remains as good a pitcher as anyone in the game, and after a few early issues, he appears to have ironed things out. The key is not falling behind, because as one might expect, falling behind has been a prediction for how the rest of his start will go. In four of Bumgarner’s five starts, the team that took the lead early went on to win the game.

Piling Up the Runs

Even with Arizona scoring just three runs in its first 18 innings in Miami, there’s no denying the fact that the Diamondbacks have been burying opponents in an avalanche of runs. So far, Arizona has driven in 141 runs on the year, third behind Cincinnati and the Dodgers. In their past 13 starts, they’ve cashed on the over 11 times, and taking them with the over has proven to be one of the best bets in the majors right now.

But while Arizona has been consistent and able to put up runs on a regular basis, the same cannot be said for the Marlins. Miami’s had no problems scoring against the Diamondbacks, but against the Nationals’ pitching, the Marlins couldn’t get anything going, scoring a mere four runs for the entire three-game set. Recent histo-ry says this one might head in the other direction because games involving Pablo Lopez as the starter have tended to be low-scoring affairs. In each of his past three starts, the Marlins’ hurler has conceded two runs or less…and Miami has managed to lose two of those games.

Betting Trends

The Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their past six against a right-handed starter. The Diamondbacks have won six of their past eight road games. The Marlins are 1-5 in their past six following a win. The Marlins are 5-2 in their past seven home games. The over is 7-1 in the Diamondbacks’ past eight road games. The over is 8-2 in the Diamondbacks’ past ten games as an underdog. The over is 6-2 in the Marlins’ past eight games. The Diamondbacks are 2-5 in the past seven meetings. The over is 6-0 in the past six meetings.

Weather Report

A humid night with temperatures at 80 degrees might lead the Marlins to close the roof, but if they don’t, the wind will blow at 10 miles per hour to the south, sending balls toward the third-base dugout.

Dan’s pick

It’s hard to ignore Arizona’s lack of success in South Florida, but it’s also hard to ignore just how well Bum-garner is pitching right now. He’s just two starts removed from a no-hitter in which he walked nobody, and if he’s on, Miami will have a hard time getting anything going. Even with all of the history suggesting the over is the better way to bet, the presence of Bumgarner suggests that this will be a low-scoring game, and if that’s the case, I think Arizona comes out on top. I’ll take the Diamondbacks.