Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers Pick 8/10/19

Arizona Diamondbacks (59-57) at Los Angeles Dodgers (77-41)
When: 9 p.m., Saturday, August 10
Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles

Moneyline: ARI +170/LAD -185 (SportsBetting.ag)
Runline: D-Backs +1.5/Dodgers -1.5
Total: 8.5

Starting Pitchers: Alex Young (4-1, 2.60 ERA, 0.87 WHIP) vs. Kenta Maeda (7-8, 4.37 ERA, 1.13 WHIP)

Cruise Control

How does Los Angeles keep itself motivated? While the rest of the National League finds itself in a logjam for the wild card that resembles LA traffic on Interstate 110, the Dodgers are cruising along, well ahead of everyone else in the league. Only Atlanta is within ten games of the Dodgers, which means that Los Angeles is virtually guaranteed home-field advantage in the first round and probably throughout the playoffs. At this point, the Dodgers are trying to keep themselves going by chasing after the best record in baseball and definite home-field in the World Series, which might not be the greatest motivator, given that Los Angeles had the home field two years ago in Game 7 and let a world title slip through its grasp.

Make It Count

While the Dodgers have one eye on the postseason already, the Diamondbacks are trying to pull themselves through the pileup of NL wild card hopefuls and land the right to get a crack at the Dodgers in the NLDS. For Arizona, the key is to keep the momentum going after series wins over Washington and Philadelphia at home, and they got off to a great start with a 3-2 win over Los Angeles on Friday. A win in this game would mark just the third series of at least three games that the Dodgers have lost at home all season (Brewers and Padres), and it would set Arizona up to do something nobody has done all year in a three-game set: sweep the Dodgers in Los Angeles.

Whether it happens has a lot to do with what Alex Young does on the hill. In his first appearance against the Dodgers, the 2015 second-rounder looked excellent, holding the Dodgers hitless through 2.1 innings. Since then, he’s usually been a starter instead of a reliever, and he’s pitched reasonably well in his new role, holding four of five opponents to two earned runs or less. He finally tasted defeat for the first time last week against Washington, but he had pitched well enough to beat a lot of teams, only losing because the D-Backs gave him no runs at all.

Maeda Struggles

Kenta Maeda simply isn’t getting the job done on the mound for Los Angeles. Through May, he appeared to be one of the Dodgers’ most reliable options on the hill, getting off to a 7-2 start and regularly lasting into the sixth inning of games. But since then, times have changed drastically. In June and July, Maeda didn’t beat anybody, and his only two shutout performances came in a relief role rather than as a starter. When he has started, it often hasn’t been pretty. In his past five starts, he’s averaged nearly four runs per game and taken the loss on four occasions. One of those was forgivable considering it came at Coors Field, but his most recent start was an 11-10 win over San Diego at home. There’s no excuse for him losing that one.

The Historicals

Arizona isn’t going to be afraid of Los Angeles. If not for a couple of breaks the other way, the Diamondbacks might be winning the season series. As it stands, it’s 8-5 in favor of the Dodgers, but the Diamondbacks still get one more shot at Los Angeles at home following this series. Arizona isn’t going to catch Los Angeles, but a strong showing here could go a long way toward building confidence for that wild card game.

Betting Trends

• The Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their past six games against a starter with a WHIP below 1.15.
• The Diamondbacks are 8-3 in their past 11 Saturday games.
• The Dodgers are 5-1 in their past six games against a left-handed starter.
• The Dodgers are 1-4 in Maeda’s past five Saturday starts.
• The over is 4-1 in the Diamondbacks’ past five games.
• The under is 5-1 in Maeda’s past six starts.

Weather Report

At 84 degrees at first pitch, it’ll be a typical evening in Southern California for this matchup.

Dan’s pick

The Dodgers are the better team, but do they have the better pitcher? Honestly, I don’t think so. Maeda is not getting the job done, and Young has looked good in his recent starts. Plus, the Diamondbacks are by far the more desperate team in this situation. Los Angeles has first place in the NL West locked up, and the only question is what kind of shape they’ll be in when the playoffs begin. Arizona, meanwhile, has to string some wins together so it can take advantage of its favorable schedule down the stretch.

Truthfully, the best bet on the table is to take the Diamondbacks on the run line. Arizona has either won or lost by a run in each of the teams’ past seven meetings. That said, the Diamondbacks are 4-3 against the Dodgers overall in that stretch, and you aren’t going to find too many situations like that at +170. With a favorable pitching matchup, this is the time to take a shot with the underdog and go with the D-Backs.