AL Wild Card Pick: Yankees vs. Red Sox 10/5/21

New York Yankees (92-70) vs. Boston Red Sox (92-70)

When: 8:08 p.m., Tuesday, October 5

Where: Fenway Park, Boston

Moneyline: NYY -115/BOS +105 (Get better lines >>> Betting at reduced odds SAVES-YOU-$$$!)

Runline: Yankees -1.5/Red Sox +1.5

Total: 8.5

Starting Pitchers: Gerrit Cole (16-8, 3.23 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) vs. Nathan Eovaldi (11-9, 3.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP)

Turning the Tables

This game’s being played in Boston for one main reason: what the Red Sox did to the Yankees in the first part of the season. Boston shot out of the blocks and appeared to be on their way to claiming the AL East after 100 games, as the Red Sox sat at 61-39 and held a nine-game lead on the Yankees. But since that game, Boston has only been a .500 club (31-31), while New York has gone 41-23 to tie the Red Sox and wrap up the second wild card.

The Red Sox went 10-9 against the Yankees in the regular season, which gave them the right to host, but the Yankees have won the past six meetings between the ancient rivals. That includes a trip to Fenway Park a week ago, which saw the Yankees sweep the Red Sox and temporarily take the wild card lead. That’s why the Yankees are favored despite the game being played in Massachusetts: recency bias has the Yankees established as firm favorites in the eyes of the public.

One Hitting Threat

Here’s another reason why the Yankees are considered the favorites: the Red Sox haven’t been hitting the ball much at all outside of Rafael Devers. Boston looked like they’d fall into a Monday playoff with Toronto until Devers rescued them in Washington with a home run, leading the Red Sox offense to come to life and take control of the game with the Nationals.

But if the Red Sox are going to best the Yankees in this matchup, they’ve got to figure out a way to get some pop in their bats besides Devers, Jose Iglesias and Alex Verdugo. Those three hitters combined for nine of Boston’s 13 hits against Washington on Sunday, and the Red Sox need more from their lineup if they’re going to get the job done here. Gerrit Cole isn’t likely to be in a generous mood in this one, so if the Red Sox aren’t hitting, it’s going to be a tough ask for them to get a win here.

More Picks: Raiders va. Chargers MNF Pick Against the Spread >>>

The Best They Could Do?

One of the problems that comes with trying to set your team up for the wild card game is that you often have to burn through a few of your pitchers just to make it there, leaving you a bit pressed when you actually make it to that one game situation. That appears to be what has happened with the Red Sox, as Boston appears to have the wrong man going to the mound in Nathan Eovaldi.

Eovaldi has come up short in four straight starts against the Yankees, and although three of them weren’t really his fault, he also had a nightmarish appearance where he gave up seven runs in 2.2 innings to New York 10 days ago. With the Yankees having an abundance of success against Eovaldi, and with it being recent success, this might not be the pitching situation Boston wanted to go up against Gerrit Cole.

Betting Trends

• The Yankees are 8-0 in their past eight following an off day.
• The Yankees are 5-1 in their past six road games.
• The Red Sox are 8-1 in their past nine playoff games.
• The Red Sox are 4-1 in their past five games.
• The over is 5-1 in the Yankees’ past six playoff road games.
• The over is 6-2 in the Yankees’ past eight playoff games.
• The under is 7-1 in the Red Sox’s past eight overall games.
• The under is 5-0 in the Red Sox’s past five against the AL East.
• The under is 6-1 in the past seven matchups in Boston.
• The Yankees are 4-1 in the past five meetings in Boston.

Weather Report

MLB’s big showcase of a single game between the Yankees and Red Sox might have some weather to deal with, as it’s going to be overcast and dipping into the high 50s during the evening. With about a 20% chance of rain and winds blowing in from center field at 7 miles per hour, there’s a chance this one doesn’t start on time. They’ll play Tuesday unless something changes, but be prepared not to know if your bet has cashed until Wednesday morning.

Dan’s pick

The wild card game is starting to become the New York Invitational, and the Yankees are the team that’s in much better shape to try to win this game. The Yankees have turned the tide in this rivalry this season, and I don’t think Boston has the pitching needed to turn this matchup around.

Even though this is in Boston, this seems like the Yankees are the much better prepared team for this situation. I’ll take New York. Question: Ever tried live betting? It’s the BEST! Check out the absolute niftiest platform on the web for doing so at Bovada Sportsbook!