Philadelphia Phillies (16-13) vs. Miami Marlins (11-18)
Where: Marlins Park, Miami, Fl
When: Wednesday, May 2nd, 2018
TV: DirecTV 654
by Kevin, Baseball Capper, Predictem.com
Opening Line Phil -160/Mia +150
Current Line: (12:16PM EST) Phi -170/Mia +160
Over/Under: Opened at 8, down to 7.5.
Congrats to all who cashed in on the Marlins last night! We’re going right back to the well despite the Phillies featuring their ace. Aaron Nola taking the hill doesn’t change the fact that the Marlins are hot and the Phillies are not.
12 Things I Love About This Game
1. Teams usually come out flat the next day after an extra innings loss.
2. The Miami Marlins are 6-1 in their last 7 games. They’re HOT. Believe-it-or-not!
3. The Philadelphia Phillies are COLD. The team is 1-5 in their last 6 games.
4. The Phils have only scored 1 measly run in 3 of their last 4 games.
5. The Miami Marlins have only allowed 7 runs in their last 5 games and 4 of those were in one game!
6. The Phillies are hitting .215 on the road this season.
7. The Phillies have 12 errors in 13 road games this season. Errors are a highly underrated statistic and are especially important in a game like today’s, where it’s likely that very few runs will be scored.
8. The Marlins have beaten the Phillies 3 straight games after having a 20 spot put on them in Philly on 4/7.
9. Aaron Nola has a 5.32 ERA and 1.32 WHIP over 22 innings at Marlins Park.
10. Last season, Nola’s ERA was 1.50 higher when he pitched on the road.
11. Urena only allowed 1 run over 7 innings in his last home start vs. the Phillies (9/3/17).
12. Justin Bour is likely to start tonight. He’s been out with back spasms, but entered yesterday’s game as a pinch hitter and homered. He stayed in the game after the at bat.
More Phillies/Marlins Thoughts
I don’t make a habit of betting against good pitchers that are only allowing a .201 batting average to opposing hitters. I also don’t like making it a habit of betting on baseball teams full of young players. Youngin’s are consistently inconsistent.
HOWEVER, there’s quite a bit to like here tonight. The bottom line is that Miami is playing good baseball and Philadelphia isn’t. Add in the extra innings loss mental steamroller and the confidence Miami is exuding and you have a strong play.
it’s mind blowing that the general betting public (squares) are backing Aaron Nola and the Phillies to the tune of 72% after the bats have been crickets and team has lost 5 of their last 6. Nola can pitch his ass off and that’s still not going to plate runs.
The difference between a winning and losing handicapper is the ability to decipher what SHOULD happen vs. what CAN happen. Sure, Nola is a better pitcher than Urena. Nola may win a Cy Young one day. He has that kid of stuff. The Phillies are probably a better team as well. But today there’s a fly in the soup. I believe the Marlins will win. Is there risk involved? YES. Nola could very well no-hit this young Marlins team.
With that being said, there’s no need for greed. I’m happy to take a shot at “almost” even money with the Fish on the run line +1.5 -120. Better yet, I’m recommending 20% on Mia at +160 and 80% on the run line. This kind of underdog money is too sweet to not get a little taste of. Bet this game for FREE by taking advantage of a massive 50% bonus up to $250 FREE at Bovada. The thing I love the most about Bovada is that credit cards work there without issue!
Kevins’s Pick to Win
Miami Marlins +1.5 -120.
