2015 Wood Memorial Picks and Analysis
Fair odds expected on El Kabeir in Wood Memorial with Frosted,
Daredevil in field
2015 Wood Memorial-G1, Race 10, Aqueduct, Saturday, April 4, 2015
3-Year-Olds, 1 1/8-miles, Dirt, Purse: $1 Million
Wood Memorial Picks
1. El Kabeir
2. Daredevil
3. Tiz Shea D
4. Tencendur
Wood Memorial Analysis
El Kabeir will likely have to do it the hard way in the 2015 Wood Memorial
at Aqueduct on Saturday, but at least the price will be right.
He comes into this year’s Wood Memorial off a solid rallying win in the
Gotham Stakes-G3 at Aqueduct on March 7 and before that he’d finished second
in the Withers-G3 and won the Jerome Stakes-G3, also at Aqueduct. The Gotham
was 1 1/16-miles and El Kabeir reversed his running style to win it, coming
from well back rather than being close to the pace. The change in running
style is always a good angle and El Kabeir is simply turning into a good
professional racehorse.
The problem he faces in this year’s Wood Memorial is that Gulfstream Park
shipper and Champagne Stakes-G1 winner Daredevil looks like he’s the lone
speed making his second start off a long layoff. Daredevil might just run
away and hide from this field as class speed, but he will be a short price
and he still has the distance question to answer. In his 2015 debut, Daredevil
finished second in the seven furlong Swale Stakes-G2 at Gulfstream Park,
a race in which he looked okay, but certainly not like a world beater. Top
jockey Javier Castellano sticks with him after the Gulfstream race, so we
have to think he’s got something to him.
We’re hoping someone attempts to go with Daredevil early, or at least apply
some pressure, as he will be overbet in this race, as will Frosted. The
latter looked like he was going to be an easy winner when he opened up into
the stretch in the Fountain of Youth-G2 at Gulfstream Park going 1 1/16-miles
in his last start, but he inexplicably stopped, fading to finish fourth
beaten 4 3/4-lengths. Listed at 5/2 on the morning line, we’ll have to pass
on him this time based on that performance and the likely short price.
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More interesting are Tiz Shea D and Tencendur, who are listed at 8-1 and
12-1 respectively on the morning line. Tiz Shea D was making only his second
lifetime start when he finished second behind El Kabeir in the Gotham and
he’s trained by one of the best in the business in Bill Mott. He had some
minor trouble in the Gotham and he also looks like he has enough stamina
in his pedigree to handle the extra furlong of the Wood Memorial.
Tencendur is not flashy but he will try, and he was outside throughout
in the Gotham before finishing fifth beaten 3 3/4-lengths. He was only a
length behind Tiz Shea D in that race however, and he was still grinding
away late.
We can’t fault you if you want to take Daredevil as the lone speed in the
Gotham. We’ll have him on our tickets, but we’re going to stick with El
Kabeir for first and second in our exotic bets and hope Daredevil gets hooked
and runs out of the money, or at least out of stamina. Frosted is also likely
to be overbet despite the poor performance in his last and we also want
to take advantage of that.
We’ll bet an exacta wheel with El Kabeir on top with Tiz Shea D, Tencendur
and Daredevil and reverse it for half the amount. We’ll use the same horses
in our trifectas and add ALL alternating in the third and fourth positions
in the Wood Memorial superfecta.
If El Kabeir runs first or second, and both Daredevil and Frosted are displaced
from the top two positions by either Tiz Shea D or Tencendur, we’re looking
at an excellent payoff.
Note: Be sure to check out Ken’s Santa Anita Derby Picks today as well!
Good Luck!