Withers Stakes Picks: Mo Quality, Captain Cook, and Global Steve Lead the Pack at Aqueduct

2025 Withers Stakes

Race 7, Aqueduct, Saturday, February 1, 2025
1 1/8 Miles | Purse: $250,000 | Kentucky Derby Points: 20-10-6-4-2

Withers Stakes Picks

1. No.5 Mo Quality
2. No.6 Captain Cook
3. No.1 Global Steve

Flyer Longshot for Superfectas: #2 Surfside Moon
The Withers Stakes at Aqueduct looks like a two-horse battle between Captain Cook and Mo Quality, but it is 1 1/8 miles, and one of these two probably doesn’t want to run that far. But after those two, it’s a bit of a guessing game. Global Steve (green) and Surfside Moon (trouble) at least have something they can improve on.
Below follows our horse by horse analysis

Withers Stakes Analysis

Mo Quality made his stakes debut in his last start, the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn Park, and ran into growing freight train Coal Battle, who was winning his third stakes in a row. He was wide into the first turn and stalked a pressured pace from the outside, giving his best in the stretch to take second money four lengths back of Coal Battle.
That was his first start at a route going 1 1/6-miles and he handled it well against a tough rival. Remember we picked him as a longshot in the Smarty Jones based on what he’d shown in his previous two races, and he does have some talent. Two starts back he earned the field’s co-top Beyer figure, an 83 going 6 ½-furlongs. Mo Quality’s chances of winning are going to depend on how much hidden talent we haven’t seen yet from Captain Cook.

Captain Cook broke his maiden quite easily in his last start at odds of 1-2, pressing on the outside in a Maiden Special Weight race going seven furlongs in the slop at Aqueduct. It’s difficult to tell whether he’s a good horse or was just facing a bad field in his last. He drew off to win by 9 ¼-lengths and had something left at the wire. He doesn’t need the lead to win, and he has a top trainer in Richard Dutro, Jr. but he’s meeting better horses in his stakes debut while also stretching out to 1 1/8-miles. Dutro wins at 24% clip second start off the layoff and jockey Franco wins at a 26% rate for Dutro.
A $410,000 yearling, Captain Cook had a terrible start in his debut at Churchill Downs, rushed up wide and kept coming around the turn and into the stretch. He probably tired a little late in that race, but you certainly couldn’t fault him for his effort, and he has the co-highest last race Beyer figure in this field along with co-second choice Mo Quality. He got a trainer switch to Dutrow after that race and romped in his next start. Maybe the only thing not to like about Captain Cook is the short price he’ll be when the gate opens.

Global Steve arrives undefeated in two starts at Parx, both at seven furlongs and the most recent being the Future Stars Stakes. He raced greenly in the Future Stars over a sloppy track, dropping back early, moving up along the inside and showing a decent turn of foot to get to the leader in late turn, opened up into the stretch and drifted out mildly while winning by 1 ½-lengths. He also raced greenly in his maiden race, running up behind horses before the turn, relaxing a touch when his rider asked him to wait, and then making a wide move in late turn to take over into the stretch, after which he lugged in while winning by 6 ½-lengths. 
He runs a little odd, with his head up in the air, but we’re wondering if he’s still growing up. Neither his mind, nor his body, appear ready to win, yet he gets it done. His Beyer figure in the Future Stars was 66, which puts him well back of the top two in here, but there’s just something about him that says he can improve again, and he might get a nice duel-stalking trip in here if the favourites decide to go at it.

Omaha Omaha made his stakes debut in the Jerome Stakes, going a mile after two straight wins, and then did his Silky Sullivan impression, dropping back about 20 lengths off the leaders before rallying to finish second beaten 3 ½-lengths. He was never going to win that race, but he did show some late run, so maybe the extra sixteenth of a mile will help him here. The problem is, he doesn’t look like he’s fast enough. He’ll need a vicious duel between the favourites to win this.

Uncle Jim pressed outside subsequent Jerome Stakes winner Cyclone State going a mile at Aqueduct in his second lifetime start, and finally tired in the stretch to finish 3 ½-lengths behind the winner in third. It wasn’t a bad effort for a stakes debut, but he has yet to break the 70 Beyer mark in three starts and that won’t be good enough here. We could see him pressing to late turn and tiring in the drive.

Surfside Moon hasn’t run since October, and he’s a real sleeper. He finished fifth, beaten four lengths in the Laurel Futurity after being forced to wait on the turn in that race, and while he might not have won, he would have been a lot closer at the finish. He came back to finish sixth, beaten 5 ¼-lengths in the Awad Stakes on the turf after half-checking along the inside for the first three-quarters of the race. 
It’s almost impossible to get a read on where this horse fits talent-wise. His best Beyer figure is only 63, and he’s coming into this race off a layoff, but if he’s an improved horse at three and he gets a clean trip, maybe he could finish in the lower half of the superfecta at 15-1.

Corvis finished three lengths behind Uncle Jim two starts back and second beaten 12 ½-lengths in his last start going a mile at Aqueduct in an allowance race, earning a 69 Beyer figure. A deep closer, he is another who would need a psychotic pace battle to win this.

Captain Cook and Mo Quality could set the pace together, and if they slow it down enough, they might both just romp away from the field in the stretch. If they go too fast, we’ll take a shot on Global Steve to take advantage of them late, with Surfside Moon as our flyer longshot, knowing full well he may not be ready or even good enough for this.

The top two look very evenly matched, so we’ll box them in the exacta with a few smaller tickets using Global Steve top and bottom. We liked Mo Quality in his last start, he finished well against a horse that would womp this bunch, and he should also be a decent price in here. Captain Cook looks like he could get overbet, so we’re going to take a shot on Mo Quality at 5/2 or better.

We like quality.