Virginia Derby Predictions: Will Getaway Car Hold Off Rapture?

Colonial Downs, Race 9. Saturday, March 15, 2025

Purse: $500,000

Surface: Dirt

Distance: 1 1/8 Miles

Post Time: 5:10 p.m. ET

Kentucky Derby Points: 50-25-15-10-5

Virginia Derby Picks

• #6 Getaway Car
• #7 Rapture
• #8 Authentic Gallop
• #4 Omaha Omaha

Virginia Derby Longshots

• #3 American Promise
• #9 Render Judgement

Virginia Derby Analysis

When we first looked at Saturday’s Virginia Derby it looked like a match race between two very game speed horses, John Hancock and Getaway Car. With John Hancock expected to scratch in favor of running in the Louisiana Derby on March 22, Getaway Car is now the dominant speed.

The track at Colonial Downs seemed to favor speed on opening day, and was fair to pressers and speed horses on the second day. Entering day three of the very short meeting, we’re expecting a fair surface again, but if the track is favoring speed, Getaway Car’s chances improve yet again.

Getaway Car brings the strongest resume into the race for trainer Bob Baffert. The son of Curlin won the Best Pal (G3) at two and recently captured the Sunland Derby by a nose after setting the pace, being headed in the stretch, and fighting back gamely for the win. With Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard, he’ll likely be sent from the gate, but the question remains whether he can handle being pressed throughout.

His grittiness at Sunland suggests he can outgame his rivals, but multiple pace challengers signed on here could make things tougher. Still, he looks like the speed of the speed, he’s the class of the field, having faced Kentucky Derby favorites Citizen Bull and Journalism in three of his last four starts, and he’s got heart. Tough combination to go against, even at a short price. The only question is whether he’ll get the 1 1/8-miles.

Rapture makes his stakes debut after a dazzling 6 1/2-length maiden victory going 1 1/16-miles at Oaklawn Park that earned significant attention. The Brad Cox trainee was a good second in his debut to a next-out allowance winner Vassimo, who came back to finish fourth in the Risen Star (G2). His Oaklawn win was accomplished with a perfect stalking trip, but there’s a good chance he could improve again here. He looks like he’ll handle the distance and top jock Flavien Prat is aboard. He’ll be hoping someone can soften up Getaway Car on the front end, otherwise it may be tough for him to get by that one on the class raise. He might just be a decent price, too, if they hammer Getaway Car.

Authentic Gallop has some natural speed, although not as much as Getaway Car. He comes into the race off a hard-fought win in an allowance race at Oaklawn Park. Trainer Tom Amoss places him ambitiously here, but this horse may have some hidden class. When he broke his maiden three starts back, he defeated Caldera, who actually got the lead off of Getaway Car in the Sunland Park Derby turning into the stretch, was turned back in mid-stretch, and kept coming to lose the photo by a hair. He should sit close and make a run at the leader on the turn; then, we’ll find out how much class he really has.

Omaha Omaha brings a consistent closing style to the table, having placed in the Jerome Stakes (G3) and Withers Stakes (G3), but he runs like he thinks he’s Silky Sullivan and drops so far back early he’ll need an all-out pace meltdown to win. He should like the distance, but he also looked like he was passing tired horses in the Jerome and the Withers. Maybe for third or fourth in the Superfecta.

American Promise continues his quest for respect after two disappointing efforts in the Risen Star (G2) and Southwest Stakes (G3). The D. Wayne Lukas-trained son of Triple Crown winner Justify took six races to break his maiden, which he did in wire-to-wire fashion, and his tactical speed should help him secure good early position. Breaking from post 3, he could find himself forwardly placed without having to duel, but his recent form raises questions about his class ceiling, and Getaway Car is much tougher than the pair he lost his last two races to.

Calling Card makes his third start of 2025 after a disappointing seventh in the Gotham (G3) at Aqueduct last out. While he’s struggled against open company in his last three, his New York-bred domination four-back showed he has the ability. The Mike Maker trainee will sit about five or six lengths off the pace and could rally for a piece of the superfecta, but he needs to show more interest than he did in his last two races.

Studlydoright was precocious at two, winning both the Tremont and the Nashua (G3), but has struggled in his first two starts as a 3-year-old, finishing fourth in the Jerome two starts back and fifth beaten 10 ¾-lengths in the John Battaglia Memorial in his most recent race. He gets blinkers off for this race, and he did run well without blinkers at two. He does have some talent, but it looks like you’ll have to run at least a 90 Beyer Figure to win this, and he’d have to improve to do that.

Render Judgment graduated going two turns at Churchill Downs but hasn’t been able to get close since then in three stakes: the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), the Gun Runner, and the Risen Star Stakes (G2). He gets blinkers on for this race, however, and two of his last three races were won by runaway lone speed horses. Flyer longshot for your tris and supers.

Georgia Magic appears overmatched based on recent form. He won his sprint debut, but was beaten 26 lengths in the Jerome Stakes two starts back, and fourth sprinting in an allowance race at Aqueduct in his last start. And his numbers are 30 points lower than today’s rivals.

On paper, the race sets up with Getaway Car on the lead with American Promise pressing early, and Authentic Gallop possibly also pressing from the outside. Rapture will benefit if someone pushes Getaway Car early and has an upset chance if that happens.

We’re going to play an exact box of Getaway Car and Rapture and make a small win-place bet on whichever of those horses has better odds. We’ll use American Promise, Authentic Gallop, Render Judgement, and Omaha Omaha in third in the trifectas with ALL on the bottom rung of the superfecta because you just know that if we leave one horse out of the ALL leg, meaning Georgia Magic at 100-1, he’ll beat us out of the superfecta.

Hoping we find some Rapture in our Getaway Car.