Travers Stakes Picks and Betting Preview: Dornoch’s Challenge
Dornoch the Pick in Travers Stakes, but Filly Thorpedo Anna Could Get Great Trip
Travers Stakes, Race 13, Saratoga Race Course, Saturday, August 24, 2024
Distance: 1 1/4-Miles Purse: $1.25 Million Surface: Dirt
2024 Travers Stakes Picks
- Dornoch
- Thorpedo Anna
- Sierra Leone
Travers Stakes Analysis
Dornoch (5/2) paid off handsomely for us in his last two starts, the Belmont Stakes (G1) at 18-1 at Saratoga and the Haskell Stakes (G1) at Monmouth Park at and 3-1, and we’ll be going right back to him in the 155th Travers Stakes (G1) on Saturday, despite the fact he’s facing tougher opposition and more speed.
Dornoch is in the best form of his life; he’s proven over the distance and the track, and he’s been working well, so we’re going to take a shot he can put away the speed and hold on late one more time at what should be 5/2 or better.
This year, Travers is a very tough race with three horses that could improve, four proven Grade 1 winners, and another Grade 2 winner that gets blinkers on. The problem for Dornoch in this years Travers is the other speed. He’s a free-running horse that doesn’t like to be restrained and probably prefers to be on the lead. We’re not saying he can’t without the lead, just that he runs better when he gets it. Jockey Saez knows that, but who knows what to do when the gate opens?
Filly Thorpedo Anna (3-1) has won four in a row over fillies, and the last three were Grade 1 races. We’re not sure how good her competition was in those races, but it’s probably safe to say she’s facing much better today. She had gate issues in her last, and oddly as it sounds, that could help her chances here. She can win with or without the lead, and she might end up stalking a duel between Dornoch, Fierceness (3-1), and maybe even Unmatched Wisdom (8-1), who is one of two Chad Brown-trained horses in here, the other being Sierra Leone (7/2).
Third and second in the Belmont Stakes and Jim Dandy to Dornoch and Fierceness, respectively, Sierra Leone would benefit from a hot pace up front, and he needs it, as he seems to hang and lean on rivals when the real running starts. If the pace is hot, he might just run them all late, even if he does drift into them.
Fierceness loves to be on or near the lead, but he’s an inconsistent sort. Some days he’s great; other days, he just gallops around. Saturday would probably not be a good day to pick the latter, considering he is facing the toughest speed horse he has ever run against in Dornoch. We’re thinking Dornoch will give him all he can handle, and if he does eventually get by that one, how’s he going to have anything left to hold off the ralliers?
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Batten Down (20-1) won the Ohio Derby (G3) on the lead and finished third when he couldn’t get it when moved up in class to face Fierceness and Sierra Leone in the Jim Dandy (G2) at Saratoga on July 27. He was trained by Bill Mott, so we give him a longshot chance to finish in the top four on that angle alone, thinking he could improve.
The same goes for Corporate Power (15-1), who is stepping up in class for trainer Shug McGaughey, another horseman who knows what he’s doing. Corporate Power finished second in the $130,000 Curlin Stakes in his last start to fellow Travers entrant Unmatched Wisdom and does have the right running style for this race.
Unmatched Wisdom was the lone speed when facing Corporate Power last time, but even with top jock Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the saddle for the Travers, we can’t see him getting a slow-paced lone speed lead this time.
We’ve mentioned everyone in the race now except for Honor Marie (20-1), who gets blinkers on after finishing eighth and fourth in his last two starts, the Kentucky Derby and Belmont, behind Sierra Leone and Dornoch. Not only does he have to improve, but he has the wrong running style for the Saratoga dirt. The track has been favoring horses that are on or close to the lead all summer, and unless that changes, Honor Marie is going to have a tough time closing on these gamers.
This race revolves around Dornoch. If he secures the lead on the inside and his rivals pressure him from the outside, they’ll have a hard time getting by him. If he doesn’t get the lead and is forced to press from the outside, he still has a chance, but not quite as good.
The horse in the best form with the perfect running style to win the Travers is actually the filly, Thorpedo Anna, who could very easily stalk a duel, pounce in the stretch, and open up before the boys know what hit them. All the above being said, we’re going with Dornoch. We’re a sucker for heart, and he’s got the biggest one in here? Win or lose…
Hes our guy.