Shiloh’s Mistress the Pick in Honeymoon at Santa Anita
Shiloh’s Mistress the Pick in Honeymoon at Santa Anita
The Honeymoon (G3)
Race 7, Santa Anita, Saturday, June 1, 2024
Distance: 1 1/8 Miles, Surface: Turf, Purse: $100,000
The Honeymoon – Picks
- 7. Shiloh’s Mistress
- 4. Sea Dancer
- 5. Circle of Trust
- 3. Faith Understood
The Honeymoon – Analysis
Shiloh’s Mistress just missed in her last start, which was her first start on the turf and first attempt going 1 1/8-miles on the Santa Anita turf course. There’s no reason she can’t improve in her second start at the same distance on the same course. She also has heart.
In her last start in the Providencia Stakes (G3) she set the pace under mild pressure and was headed more than once in the stretch, but just kept coming back, and she was doing that again at the wire. She was 7-1 in that race and probably doesn’t even know she lost. It was that close. She doesn’t need the lead to win, and her morning-line odds of 3-1 seem more than fair, although she could go off at lower than that.
The morning-line favorite at 5/2 is the lightly raced Faith Understood, who ships in from New York off a second-place finish going a mile on the turf in the $150,000 Memories of Silver Stakes. Two starts back she broke her maiden going 1 3/16-miles at Keeneland over good turf, so she will get the distance. The only thing we question about her is her ability to accelerate late. Jockey Mike Smith is still one of the best in the business and this filly could potentially be the inside speed, although she could get pressure from a few rivals in here. She doesn’t appear to need the lead to win, but it would probably help her chances.
Circle of Trust is the 7/2 third choice on the morning-line and is a bit of a wildcard. She was checking early in her last, which was the same race that Shiloh’s Mistress comes out of, and she never appeared comfortable. When she did get clear she rallied to finish ¾-lengths behind Shiloh, but at no point did she look like she was going to win. Did the early checking take something out of her? If not, she could get a perfect inside trip stalking a forced pace and zip by them late.
The most interesting horse in the Honeymoon is Sea Dancer, who is a half-sister to Shoemaker Mile (G1) and American Stakes (G3) winner Johannes. Listed at 4-1 on the morning-line, the only time she ever tried 1 1/8-miles on the Santa Anita turf, she won a Maiden Special Weight. In her most recent start she showed good acceleration to win a $100,000 N1X going a mile on the Santa Anita turf, with fellow Honeymoon entrant Visually checking in fourth. There are two negatives in Sea Dancer’s form which might make her a nice price. Her jockey is 1-for-56 at Santa Anita and the only two times she has faced stakes company she finished fifth and sixth.
Visually won the Senorita Stakes (G3) going 6 ½-furlongs on the turf at Santa Anita in her start following her loss to Sea Dancer, but she’ll be stretching out to 1 1/8-miles in this race, and her only shot might be to attempt to steal it, if she’s quick enough to get to the lead by herself.
Rounding out the field are longshots Sakura Blossom and Pink Whitney. The latter has finished behind Sakura Blossom three times on the dirt and also behind Shiloh’s Mistress and Circle of Trust in the Providencia Stakes on the turf.
Sakura Blossom is a bit of a wildcard, having only run on the turf twice. She finished third at Del Mar on the turf in a $50,000 Optional Claiming race four starts back. She has however, won three of her five starts on the dirt, including the Arizona Oaks, so she does know how to win, but she will have to improve.
We’ll take Shiloh’s Mistress to force the pace outside Faith Understood, put that rival away late, and hold off Circle of Trust and Sea Dancer. We’ll play Shiloh’s Mistress to win and place, and use her top and bottom in the exactas with Faith Understood, Circle of Trust and Sea Dancer, spending twice as much on the tickets using her in the win spot.
Note how the names are all intimately connected – Mistress, Trust, Dancer, and Faith – in a race called The Honeymoon. That might make a good story for a name/hunch player.
A good bet too.
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