Royal Heroine Stakes Picks: Tirupati vs. Raw Ability Showdown (Santa Anita, 4/26)

by Kenneth Strong | Last updated Apr 26, 2025 | Horse Betting

Santa Anita, Race 7 – Saturday, April 26, 2025

Purse: $100,000 | Surface: Turf | Distance: 1 Mile | Post Time: 4:08 p.m. PT

Royal Heroine Stakes Picks

#6 Tirupati
#2 Raw Ability
#4 Uncorked
#1 Public Assembly

Royal Heroine Stakes Longshots

#5 Venganza
#3 Sneaker
#11 Hamwood Flier
#9 Eternal Reign

Royal Heroine Stakes Horse-by-Horse Analysis

A full field of 13 fillies and mares will contest the Royal Heroine Stakes (G3) over a mile on Santa Anita’s turf on Saturday and it looks like a two-horse race for the top spot between morning-line favorite Tirupati and the undefeated Raw Ability.

The race sets up with Hamwood Flier trying to open early with Sneaker and Venganza pressing the pace. The pace scenario should favor stalkers and closers, particularly Tirupati and Raw Ability, as well as Uncorked and Public Assembly.

#6 Tirupati is the logical favorite coming into the race off a wire-to-wire victory in the Wilshire (G3) over this course and a narrowly beaten second in the Buena Vista (G2) in the start before that, both at today’s distance. She’s in sharp form, doesn’t need the lead to win, and has an excellent half-mile bullet work seven days ago. The one to beat, but she’ll need her “A” race.

#2 Raw Ability is a former Euro who is unbeaten in three starts, all at this mile distance, including two in the U.S., her most recent off a long layoff. Her numbers are solid, she looks like she could improve again, and her powerful late kick makes her a significant threat regardless of pace.

#4 Uncorked’s only win in the past two years came in this race, and she’s been a steady but unspectacular rallier in seven consecutive graded stakes behind fellow entrants Tirupati and Uncorked. Could rally for a piece at rather unattractive odds.

#1 Public Assembly returned impressively from a layoff, winning an allowance race over this course, but that was 1 ¼-miles and this race is a mile. Can she produce a big kick at this shorter distance? Not sure, but a bullet 5/8ths work last week says she’s ready.

#3 Sneaker may not be good enough to win this, but she’s a consistent performer with tactical speed that should be used as a longshot in the exotics. She rallied to finish third in the $100,000 Irish O’Brien Stakes at Santa Anita going 6 ½-furlongs in her last, and has three wins over this course and distance. We expect her to make a bid, but we’re not sure whether she can finish with the top runners in here late.

#5 Venganza is stretching out from three straight sprints, including a third-place finish in the Monrovia Stakes (G3) over the downhill turf course in her last. She’s only run a route twice and she finished fifth in both of those races. Her sprint speed should have her close from the outset. The question is whether she can finish at this distance.

#11 Hamwood Flier looks like she could be the pacesetter in here coming into the race off a third-place finish in the six-furlong Clocker’s Corner Stakes at Santa Anita, which was taken off the turf. That was her first start off a year layoff, and she has shown a penchant for opening big early leads in routes on the turf. If she opens up and slows down the pace, she could steal it at 10-1, or maybe hold on for share of the exacta.

#10 Sun Of Hill is a consistent rallier but hasn’t been able to build on her stellar form in Brazil since arriving here in July of 2024. A potential longshot for the lower rungs of the superfecta if the pace collapses.

#7 Mucho Macho Girl returns to Santa Anita after a romping win in a $50,000 stake at Turf Paradise. She moves up in class for this and has never shown that she can beat this kind.

#9 Eternal Reign steps up in class off two second-place finishes over this course and distance. She can sit close to the pace and is in the exotic mix along with numerous others. She arrived from Ireland last year and hasn’t finished worse than second in her last five starts. Worth including in exactas based on her consistency and tactical speed. Note however, that the rider from her last race shows up on Public Assembly, who he also rode in her last race for trainer Philip D’Amato.

#8 Valence won the $300,000 Zia Park Oaks on the dirt three starts ago and came back to finish seventh in the American Oaks (G1) in her next start on the turf at Santa Anita against tougher. In her most recent start in the $100,000 Holly Henson at Sunland Park, she made the lead turning for home but tired in the drive to finish fourth. She has won twice on the turf at this distance, but these are tougher than the horses she beat in those races.

#12 Baltic Fire has yet to crack the 80 Beyer Figure mark in her career, and it looks like it will take something in the high 80s or low 90s to win this. She can sit close, but these are tougher than what she’s been facing in allowance races. She did try her luck in the American Oaks (G1) two starts ago but was not a factor when unable to get the lead.

#13 Lunar Impact hasn’t run since last July and seems up against it from the widest post here. She has however, won twice on the turf at Santa Anita turf going today’s distance, and her best numbers could put her in the money if she’s ready and can somehow work out a trip.

While Tirupati looks like the horse to beat, we’ll take a shot on Raw Ability to post the upset at what should be a decent price, and box that pair in the exacta. We’ll use Uncorked and Public Assembly in the third and fourth spots, along with longshots Venganza, Sneaker, Hamwood Flyer, and Eternal Reign in our trifectas and superfectas. And for our longshot flier, we’ll play a $1 exacta wheel with speedster Hamwood Flyer first and second with ALL.

We like fliers.

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