Robert B. Lewis Advance 2010 Kentucky Derby Preps
Caracortado the horse to bet at overlay odds
by Kenneth Strong of Predictem.com
Undefeated Caracortado isnt likely to be favored in the 72nd running of the Grade II $150,000 Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita on Saturday, February 6, but he may not have shown his best yet and the price will be right.
Caracortado enters the mile and a sixteenth Lewis with a perfect 4-for-4 record, his last win coming in the restricted California Breeders Championship at Santa Anita on December 26 at the same distance. His latest Beyer Speed Figures are lower, and his reputation lesser than a few others in the seven-horse field, but he can run. Trained by Michael Machowsky, Caracortado had to wait for room at the top of the stretch in the Breeders Championship before powering to a 1 -length victory under regular rider Paul Atkinson, who will again be aboard for the Lewis, but if he gets a clean trip behind a contested pace he has a shot at what we think will be an overlay price.
The marquee horses in the Lewis are Tiz Chrome and American Lion. Trained by Bob Baffert, Tiz Chrome is 2-for-2, with his last victory coming in the 6 -furlong Stuka Stakes at Hollywood Park on December 19. The son of Tiznow looked good coming from just off the pace to win by four lengths in that race and was awarded a 97 Beyer Speed Figure for his efforts, but our thoughts are that he wasnt as impressive as many think he was. If he continues to improve on the stretchout and he can dig in when asked, he has a shot as a likely underlay under Garret Gomez, especially if he is able to secure the early lead on his own and control the pace.
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If some type of contested pace develops, we like American Lion better. Also a son of Tiznow, American Lion hasnt run since his victory in the seven-furlong Hollywood Preview Stakes on November 21, but hes a long striding horse who looks like he could develop into something even better as a 3-year-old for trainer Harty Eoin. American Lion is slated to be ridden by Julian Leparoux.
Rounding out the field are:
Macias, a horse who knows how to win. Hes won 3-of-5 including his last start, the Eddie Logan over the Santa Anita turf going a flat mile on December 28. The knock against him is that he was beaten by American Lion in the Preview, but he does have a fitness advantage for this race and gets the hot riding Victor Espinoza. Another trained by Bob Baffert, he should be used in your exactors as a longshot simply on his willingness to get the job done.
Dave in Dixie, a bit of a sleeper. He was last seen finishing sixth in the Grade I Norfolk at Santa Anita on October 4 for trainer John Sadler. He went into that race making only his second career start however and he did make a bid in the stretch. Hes proven at the distance and could improve. Regular jockey Joel Rosario has the mount.
Tango Tango ships in from Golden Gate off a six-furlong optional allowance/claimer and doesnt look good enough on numbers or class.
Domonation, another John Sadler trainee in here. He comes into the race fit off a third place finish beaten 2 -lenths in the one-mile San Raphael at Santa Anita on January 16. In his race before that he finished second, four lengths behind Tiz Chrome in the Stuka. He is a tryer and he will get the distance, but we see him more as rallying for a piece under Joe Talamo rather than winning.
At overlay odds, Caracortado is the play in the 2010 Robert B. Lewis, which goes as the eighth race on Saturdays Santa Anita card.
Good luck!