Risen Star Stakes 2025: Picks, Analysis & Best Bets

Race 14, Fair Grounds, Saturday, February 15, 2025
1 1/8 Miles | Dirt | Purse: $500,000 | Kentucky Derby Points: 50-25-15-10-5

Risen Star Stakes Picks

1. No.4 East Avenue
2. No.9 Built
3. No.3 Vassimo

Risen Star Stakes Longshots
No.1 American Promise, No.8 Giocoso, No.5 Chunk of Gold, No.12 Vamos Carlitos

Risen Star Stakes Analysis

Saturday’s Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds is a key stop on the Kentucky Derby trail, offering 50 qualifying points to the winner, essentially guaranteeing a Derby spot. The 1 1/8-mile distance will be a serious stamina test, and morning-line favorite East Avenue returns after a disastrous Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), where he stumbled at the start and finished ninth.

East Avenue is the class speed of the race, and if he opens up early, the race might be over. There are a few other speed horses that could throw a wrench into his plans if sent hard, but they still might not be good enough to beat him.

Risen Star Stakes Field Analysis (Ordered by Morning Line Odds)

East Avenue is the most accomplished horse in the field, having dominated the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last fall. His Breeders’ Cup Juvenile flop in his final start of 2024 can be excused based on his terrible start in that race, but he still hasn’t proven he can come from off the pace. He does appear to have Grade 1 speed, however, and these are easier than he met in the Juvenile. He’s been kept in training since his Breeders’ Cup debacle, and despite coming off a 3 ½-month layoff, if he’s able to run his race on or near the lead, he should be too classy for this bunch.

Built brings the field’s best recent form, finishing a close second in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) after previously winning the Gun Runner Stakes in wire-to-wire fashion after a perfect trip setting a slow pace. He’s a versatile sort that doesn’t need the lead to win, making him less trip-dependent than East Avenue. He worked hard late to finish second beaten a neck in the Lecomte to wide rallier Disco Time after tracking a lone speed horse in the slop, and while he certainly gave it a good effort late, he still looked kind of ordinary. Regardless, he could get a nice trip tracking a pressured pace in here, and if he can rebound back to his best Beyer Figure (92) he has a shot to win.

Undefeated Todd Pletcher trainee, Vassimo has won both career starts, but this is his first test in graded stakes company. He settled nicely off the pace to win his last with an 81 Beyer Figure at Tampa Bay, and he will need to improve, but he probably gained some fitness in that race after being forced to work a little in the drive before drawing out to win with ears pricked. Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. sticks with him, and if East Avenue runs away from Built in the drive, Vassimo could rally to pass that one and complete the exacta.

Magnitude is one of several early speed types, but his post position (13) is a major hurdle. He finished second in the Gun Runner Stakes after pressing fellow Risen Star entrant Built and was no match for that one in the drive. He came back to finish sixth in the Lecomte Stakes after some minor trouble in the stretch, and again, he couldn’t match Built in the drive.

Septarian got a trainer switch to Chad Brown after winning his first two starts as a 2-year-old and came back to run third in his 3-year-old debut in the Mucho Macho Stakes while going a mile for the first time at Gulfstream Park. Brown adds blinkers for this race and he’s 30% with that angle. He’s also winning at a 27% clip with jockey Flavien Prat, who gets the call for the first time here. He was never a threat to win the Mucho Macho Man, and he didn’t really look like he wanted to go a whole lot further, but he could improve off that race, and this field just isn’t that strong. Could get a piece of the superfecta.

Render Judgment was a well-beaten third in the Gun Runner Stakes in his last after stumbling at the start, but the poor start really didn’t make a difference. His numbers say he’s not good enough to beat this bunch, and we believe them.

American Promise is an interesting longshot at 12-1 with Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas at the helm. Two starts back he wired his field at Oaklawn Park going 1 1/16-miles in the slop and earned a 95 Beyer Figure, which ties him for the best Beyer Figure in the field with favorite East Avenue. In his most recent start, he pressed from the outside after a poor break and tired in the drive going the same distance. He was taken out of his game after the poor break in that race, and he doesn’t appear to be physically capable of digging in if forced to come from too far off the pace.

Our guess is that they’re going to try to get the lead with American Promise from Post 1 and go as far and as fast as he can under pressure from the favorite. We can’t see him holding that one off, but if he is able to get the lead early, he could stick around for a piece of the superfecta for a trainer that certainly knows how to get a horse fit for a big race.

Giocoso finished well on the turf to win his final start of 2024, and two starts before that he took a good run at Jonathan’s Way in the Iroquois Stakes (G3) on dirt at Churchill Downs before tiring late to finish third. Apparently, Jonathan’s Way will be scratched out of this race, but he would have been one of the favorites. Giocoso’s numbers look too low to compete with the best in here, and he’s making his first start since November 8 for a trainer who is only six percent off these types of layoffs. Still, this horse may be better than he looks on paper, and if he’s ready and times his move just right…

Chunk of Gold tries dirt for the first time after finishing strongly to be second in the Leonatus Stakes at Turfway Park in his second lifetime start. He only earned a 75 Beyer Figure for that effort, but he showed both heart and desire, just as he did in his first winning start. He needs to improve on the class raise and the switch to dirt, but at 30-1, he’s another worth including in your superfectas, just in case.

Seattle Road finished seventh in the Lecomte Stakes behind Built and Disco Road and was never a threat to win despite giving his best. These are tougher. Jolly Samurai won his first three lifetime starts but hasn’t been able to compete for the win against tougher company since then, finishing fifth in the Springboard Mile and ninth in the Lecomte takes in his next two starts.

Vamos Carlitos is yet another longshot who could finish in the superfecta. Claimed for $40,000 out of winning race by capable trainer Grey Foley, he came back in his last start to finish second to Admiral Dennis in a $100,000 allowance race at Fair Grounds after being forced to wait a bit on the inside. He may not have won that race, but the 81 Beyer Figure he got would have been better, and with any improvement at all, he certainly fits in the money here. He also looks like he’ll have no problem with the 1 1/8 miles of the Risen Star.

Betting East Avenue to win at a short price off the layoff doesn’t really seem like a great wager, even if he is the best horse. We’d have to bet a ton to make any serious money. Instead, we’ll take a shot wheeling East Avenue first and second in the exactas, trifectas, and superfectas with our second and third picks and our four longshots. We’ll also take flyer exacta, trifecta, and superfecta boxes with our four longshots plus East Avenue. If he runs out of the top two, we have a chance to make a score!

Go Flyers!