Red Smith Stakes Predictions
Master Piece and Improving Rebel Red Square Off in Red Smith Stakes
2024 Red Smith Stakes (G2)
Race 9, Aqueduct, Saturday, November 9, 2024
Distance: 1 3/8 Miles Purse: $300,000 Surface: Turf
Red Smith Stakes Picks
1. Master Piece
2. Rebel Red
3. Integration
4. Pioneering Spirit
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Red Smith Stakes Analysis
The Red Smith Stakes at Aqueduct on Saturday sets up as an intriguing matchup between defending champion Master Piece and improving 4-year-old Rebel Red, with millionaire-in-waiting Integration looming as the likely favorite.
Master Piece returns to defend his Red Smith crown for trainer Richard Dutrow Jr. with a perfect 2-for-2 record over the Aqueduct turf course. The 8-year-old veteran reunites with Jose Lezcano, who guided him to victory in this race last year, and enters off a solid third-place finish in the John Henry Turf Championship (G2) at Santa Anita where he was beaten just a head for second. While winless in his last four starts, Master Piece’s tactical stalking style should put him in an ideal position behind what projects as a moderate early pace.
The most intriguing challenger is Rebel Red, who has won three of five starts since returning from an 18-month layoff. Despite losing an eye earlier this year, the lightly raced son of Frankel comes into this race off a career-best performance last month at Keeneland. Trainer Cherie DeVaux and jockey Jose Ortiz, fresh off their Breeders’ Cup Mile victory with More Than Looks, team up again with this improving 4-year-old who should handle the stretch out in distance based on his outstanding pedigree.
Chad Brown trainee Integration will likely go favored off his second-place finish in the Arlington Million (G1) two starts ago and a rider switch to top jockey Flavien Prat, but he faces questions at the 1 3/8 mile distance. While quite possibly the class of the race, and the most talented horse in the field, he may be vulnerable at short odds stretching out beyond 1 1/4 miles.
An interesting longshot is Pioneering Spirit, recently claimed by Dutrow for $62,500. The former Linda Rice trainee won two listed stakes and six races last year, including one at today’s 1 3/8-mile distance. Dutrow wins at a 22% rate with new claims, and the trainer/jockey combo of Dutrow/Franco has won at a 26% clip over the past two years, and 29% clip this year, making this horse a must-use in exotic wagers at a price.
Millionaires Adhamo and City Man who are a combined 0-for-8 in 2024. Adhamo will run as a first-time gelding, and he does have some back class, having won the United Nations (G1) at today’s distance in 2022. City Man has been running competitively in listed stakes without winning, and this bunch should be tougher than what he has been facing.
Limited Liability cuts back significantly in distance after winning a marathon stakes at Kentucky Downs, and may find this trip too sharp. He has the top trainer jockey combo of McGaughey/Dettori in his favor and he did romp in his last going much further with a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure, but can he finish with the best in here at the shorter distance? Note that he finished sixth beaten 2 ¾-lengths by fellow entrant Master Piece in this race last year.
The race should set up nicely for Master Piece, who will likely be sitting just behind possible pace setters Curbstone, Pioneering Spirit, City Man, and Daunt. While Integration does have some class, we’ll take our chances with defending champ Master Piece and improving Rebel Red to capitalize if the favorite falters.
Master Piece is undefeated at Aqueduct, proven at the distance, and has been competitive in his last three starts in California, all Grade 2 stakes. He also has the outstanding trainer/jockey combo of Dutrow and Lezcano, who teamed up to win this race last year. Rebel Red’s steady progression, elite connections, and a perfect setup make him the most likely upsetter if he handles the added ground.
Wagering Strategy for the Red Smith Stakes
Win/Place Bets:
· Win bet on Master Piece
· Place bet on Rebel Red as insurance
Exacta Strategy:
· Box Master Piece and Rebel Red
· Key Master Piece over Integration, Rebel Red, and Pioneering Spirit
· Key Rebel Red over Master Piece, Integration
Trifecta Strategy: Primary Ticket:
· Master Piece, Rebel Red with Master Piece, Rebel Red, Integration with Master Piece, Rebel Red, Integration, Pioneering Spirit
Secondary Ticket:
· Integration with Master Piece, Rebel Red with ALL
Superfecta Strategy: Primary Ticket:
· Master Piece, Rebel Red with Master Piece, Rebel Red, Integration with Master Piece, Rebel Red, Integration, Pioneering Spirit with ALL
Go get ‘em!
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