Rebel Stakes Picks and Predictions: Coal Battle Ready to Spring the Upset at Oaklawn

Event: 2025 Rebel Stakes (G2)

Oaklawn Park, Race 11, Sunday, February 23, 2025

Purse: $1.25 Million

Surface: Dirt

Distance: 1 1/16 Miles

Post Time: 6:23 p.m. ET

Kentucky Derby Points: 50-25-15-10-5

Rebel Stakes Picks

1. #1 Coal Battle
2. #5 Madaket Road
3. #3 Sandman
4. #11 Speed King

Rebel Stakes Superfecta Longshots

#2 Admiral Dennis, #6 Publisher, #13 Tiztastic

Rebel Stakes Analysis

A talented field of 13 3-year-olds will clash in what many trainers are calling the strongest Kentucky Derby prep race of the season so far. The Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Sunday is also a handicapper’s delight, with multiple viable contenders and intriguing storylines throughout the lineup.

The Rebel’s pace scenario includes four dedicated front-runners likely to ensure honest fractions. Speed King has shown high cruising speed in his victories but may face his stiffest pace pressure yet, as Smoken Wicked enters off sprint stakes wins and both Innovator and Dreaminblue possess natural early foot.

Coal Battle also has natural speed, which should help him gain good position early from Post 1, but we see him using his speed just enough to gain decent position early, and he certainly doesn’t need the lead to win.

Southwest Stakes winner Speed King faces a critical test in his development. His connections have been carefully managing his progression, and while he’s shown brilliance on the lead, they believe he has the potential to be even more effective rating off the pace. Whether he shows that versatility Sunday could determine his status as a serious Derby prospect.

The second flight of runners appears ideally positioned to capitalize if the speed duel materializes. Admiral Dennis, Madaket Road, and Publisher can secure stalking trips behind the leaders while avoiding potentially taxing early exertion. Among these, Admiral Dennis and Madaket Road possess the tactical speed and class to pounce if the pacesetters begin to tire.

Admiral Dennis enters with upside after an impressive allowance victory at Fair Grounds. The Constitution colt had legitimate excuses when fourth in the Gun Runner Stakes and top rider Florent Geroux will again be aboard on Sunday. His tactical style could prove advantageous if the expected pace battle materializes.

Madaket Road might be getting some class relief in this race after finishing third, beaten six lengths by Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner Citizen Bull in the R B Lewis Stakes (G3) in his last start. Trainer Bob Baffert has won the Rebel a record eight times, and the rider switch to jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. could move him up another notch. Madaket Road also has a sharp six-furlong bullet work in 1:12, signaling readiness.

Still-a-maiden Publisher had a brutal trip in the Southwest Stakes, stumbling and being bumped at the start, full of run early behind horses early, he made a move into the stretch and then appeared to clip heels midway down the lane. He wouldn’t have won, but that race certainly told us little about him as far as talent goes. He looks like a decent longshot underneath in the lower rungs of the superfecta.

Given the projected race shape, the Rebel sets up for one of the horses coming from off the pace. If the pace proves more moderate than expected, Speed King’s natural speed and improving form could make him difficult to run down in the lane.

The race’s deep closing contingent is led by morning-line favorite Sandman, the underrated Coal Battle, and the consistent Tiztastic, while the promising Hypnus could find his stamina-laden pedigree an asset if the early fractions take their toll, although he did race a little greenly in his debut and is probably not ready for these yet. Brereton’s Baytown would need significant improvement to impact the finish.

Sandman’s good closing effort after a terrible start in the Southwest Stakes (G3) left his connections thinking that race was more impressive than initially apparent, and the $1.2 million Tapit colt did show good determination to rally for second. His ability to overcome adversity while still delivering a powerful late run suggests he could be sitting on a breakthrough performance. Could he be overhyped? And overbet? Maybe.

Coal Battle may be the best bet in the race with a morning line of 10-1. Despite having won three stakes in a row at three different tracks, he still doesn’t get any respect. He’s close on numbers, he knows where the wire is, and he just appears to do what it takes to get the job done.

Coal Battle brings an impressive 4-for-6 record into his graded stakes debut, having displayed versatility in winning both the Remington Springboard Mile and Smarty Jones Stakes. His connections are hoping for a lively pace to set up his closing kick, though he’s shown he can win from multiple positions if needed.

Given the generous morning-line on Coal Battle, we’ll be playing him to win and place at anything 7/2 or better. We’ll take Coal Battle over and under Madaket Road and Sandman in our exactas and add in Speed King, Admiral Dennis, Publisher, and Tiztastic in our trifectas and superfectas. We’ll be using Coal Battle first and second in our trifectas and superfectas, as it appears he will be an overlay underdog on Sunday.

And you know we love underdogs.