Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Picks
Grayosh Poised for Upset in Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup
Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes (G1), Race 8, Keeneland, Saturday October 12, 2024
Purse: $750,000 Distance: 1 1/8 Miles Surface: Turf
Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes Picks
9. Grayosh (8-1)
5. Soprano (7-2)
3. She Feels Pretty (5-2)
Longshots: 2. Caitlinhergrtness (12-1), 4. Waves of Mischief (12-1)
Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes Analysis
This year’s Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes presents a golden opportunity for 3-year-old turf fillies to secure Grade 1 honors before facing older competitors. The 1 1/8-mile contest has drawn a highly competitive field of 10, with European shippers adding intrigue to an already complex handicapping puzzle.
We’re going with the improving Grayosh (8-1) to pull off the upset for top trainer Chad Brown. This filly is only a neck away from being undefeated in her last two starts, including an impressive win in the Lake Placid (G2) where she bested She Feels Pretty. With Flavien Prat in the irons and coming in at an attractive price, Grayosh looks primed for a big effort.
The likely pacesetter will be Pin Up Betty, with Buchu also showing early speed. We’re expecting Waves of Mischief and our top pick Grayosh to be just behind that pair, in a race that should favor those with positional speed and a strong closing kick.
Soprano (7-2) brings top-class European form to the table. A Group 3 winner in France with Group 1 placings, she finished a respectable third in the Group 1 Matron Stakes in Ireland last out. If she adapts well to American-style racing, her late kick could be devastating. The question is: will she find this bunch easier or struggle with the tighter turns of Keeneland?
She Feels Pretty (5-2) is the morning line favorite and for good reason. A model of consistency, she’s adding blinkers after a good second in the Lake Placid. Her tactical versatility is a major asset, and trainer Cherie DeVaux has her working sharply for this. The new equipment could provide the edge she needs, but at these odds, we’re looking elsewhere for value.
Don’t sleep on the Canadian invader Caitlinhergrtness (12-1). This filly beat the boys in the prestigious King’s Plate on synthetic and while she’s untested at this level on turf, she did win her only grass start. With the legendary Frankie Dettori aboard, she’s an intriguing longshot play.
Waves of Mischief (12-1) is another interesting price horse. A winner of the Pucker Up (G3) and second in the Dueling Grounds Oaks, she’s shown steady improvement. While she needs to take another step forward here, her numbers are trending in the right direction.
Oversubscribed (6-1) comes from the potent Chad Brown barn with Irad Ortiz Jr. up. Her strong rally in the Lake George (G3) suggests she’ll appreciate the added ground. Fresh and ready, she’s a must-use in exotics.
The remainder of the field – Pin Up Betty, Buchu, Pounce, and Candala – all have their merits but would need career-best efforts to factor here.
As always in turf racing, trip and racing luck will play crucial roles. Keeneland’s tight turns can lead to traffic trouble, making a clean journey essential for success. Jockeys will need to be at their best to navigate through the field and time their moves perfectly.
Betting Strategy:
We’ll take a shot on Grayosh to win and place, hoping She Feels Pretty isn’t quite as sharp as the odds suggest. For exotics:
– Exacta Box: 9-5-3 (Grayosh, Soprano, She Feels Pretty)
– Trifecta: 9,5,3 with 9,5,3,6 with 9,5,3,6,2,4
– Superfecta: 9,5,3,2 with 9,5,3,2 with 9,5,3,2,6,4 with ALL
Grayosh is our top selection at appealing odds, but a case can be made for multiple contenders. Spread your tickets accordingly and may the racing gods smile upon you!
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