Mystik Dan holds slight edge over Imagination in 149th Preakness Stakes

Preakness Stakes (G1), Pimlico Race Course Race 13, Saturday, May 18, 2024
3-Year-Olds, Distance: 1 3/16 Miles Purse: $2 Million Surface: Dirt

2024 Preakness Stakes Picks

1. Mystik Dan
2. Imagination
3. Catching Freedom
4.   Tuscan Gold

2024 Preakness Longshot: Uncle Heavy

Preakness Stakes Analysis

Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Mystik Dan (8/5) will attempt to win the 149th Preakness Stakes (G1) on Saturday at Pimlico Race Course, and the race could set up perfectly for him. There’s also rain in the forecast, which would help him, along with longshot Withers Stakes (G3) winner Uncle Heavy (20-1).

Mystik Dan received a great inside trip in the Kentucky Derby, but he was also close to a decent pace in that race, and the fact remains that he has the best Beyer Speed Figures in the field. He’s the only horse in the Preakness to have earned a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure – and he’s done it twice.

Mystik Dan earned a 100 Beyer for his Kentucky Derby win, and two races before that, he received a 101 Beyer in the muddy Southwest Stakes (G3), which he won impressively by eight lengths. Many have downgraded Mystik Dan’s Kentucky Derby win because of his trip, but he should get a similar journey in the Preakness.

It’s easy to think that the game Santa Anita Derby (G1) runner-up Imagination (3-1) is the lone speed in the Preakness, and he might very well be. If he opens up early and sets a slow pace, he could go all the way, but we’re thinking one of the two horses trained by six-time Preakness-winning trainer D. Wayne Lukas might be sent early to make sure he doesn’t get a free ride on the front end.

Lukas trainee Just Steel (12-1) has shown speed on numerous occasions. In the Kentucky Derby, he forced the pace between horses after bumping early and faded midway through the final turn to finish 17th, beaten 33 ¾-lengths. Stablemate Seize the Grey (12-1) forced a fast pace between horses in the Pat Day Mile (G2) in his last start, dropped back on the final turn, overcame trouble in early stretch, and came on again late to win by 1 ¼-lengths. Both horses have also shown the ability to handle an off-track.

Regardless, Imagination is the class speed of the Preakness, and he doesn’t need the lead to win. He can rate close to the leaders if need be, and he’s proven his courage in stretch duels in his last three races. He should be able to put away the Lukas horses when the time comes somewhere on the turn or in early stretch. He’ll then have to hold off the ralliers with the help of one of the world’s best riders, Frankie Dettori.

Mystik Dan will be right behind the speed in the Preakness, and underrated rider Brian Hernandez will have him ready to pounce on Imagination in the stretch. Mystik Dan could also have company from improving wise guy horse Tuscan Gold (9/2) when the running starts. Conditioned by two-time Preakness-winning trainer Chad Brown, Tuscan Gold finished third, beaten 1 ¼-lengths in the Louisiana Derby (G2) in his last start behind fellow Preakness entrant and Kentucky Derby fourth-place finisher Catching Freedom (7/2). That was only his third lifetime start and he is expected to improve in the Preakness. He’ll have to if he wants to win.

Catching Freedom was only 1 3/4-lengths back of the top three finishers in the Kentucky Derby, and he’ll be rallying late along with longshot Uncle Heavy (20-1). The latter won the Withers Stakes (G3) in the mud two starts ago and came back off a two-month layoff to finish a wide fifth in the Wood Memorial (G2). He also gets a major ride switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Mugatu (20-1) finished fifth, beaten 7 1/2-lengths in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) by Kentucky Derby runner-up Sierra Leone, but has yet to break 90 on the Beyer scale, and that won’t be good enough to win here.

Pimlico generally favors horses that can stay close to the pace, and with at least one of the two Lukas horses expected to provide company for Imagination up front, the race should set up for Mystik Dan and Tuscan Gold. Imagination has a big heart, however, so we’ll take him to hold on for a second. Tuscan Gold can also make a bid, but Catching Freedom should be able to edge him for third based on his proven class in the Kentucky Derby. Uncle Heavy will rally late and would not be a surprise longshot winner in a perfect pace scenario with Ortiz in the saddle.

Go Dan Go!

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