Mullikin, Post Time, Tough To Separate in Cigar Mile, Locked the Wildcard

CIGAR MILE HANDICAP (G2) Picks, Analysis and Longshots

Aqueduct, Saturday, December 7, 2024
1 Mile | Purse: $500,000 | 3-Year-Olds & Up

Cigar Mile Picks

• 5. Mullikin – Stretches out with a tactical edge 
• 11. Post Time – Ultra-consistent with strong BC Mile second
• 7. Locked – Lightly-raced talent ready to step forward

Cigar Mile Longshots

– 10. Coastal Mission – In career form with back-to-back wins
– 9. Senor Buscador – Saudi Cup winner capable of big late run
– 6. Law Professor – Back class and loves Aqueduct oval

Cigar Mile Analysis

Saturday’s Grade 2 Cigar Mile features a deep and accomplished field of 11, anchored by the remarkably consistent POST TIME, who has never finished worse than third in 14 career starts. With multiple speed horses signed on and several viable stalkers and closers in the mix, the race shapes up as both compelling and competitive.

MULLIKIN brings high-class sprint credentials into this one-turn mile test. A winner of four straight before finishing a good third in the BC Sprint, the Violence colt has shown both brilliance and versatility. Though stretching out to a mile for the first time, his tactical speed should allow him to sit a perfect trip under Flavien Prat. He’s proven over the track with a win in the G2 Nerud Stakes here in June, and if he can harness his natural speed early, he could get first run on the closers.

POST TIME enters in peak form off an impressive second in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, where he made up significant ground late against top company. The Brittany Russell trainee has been a model of consistency throughout his career while compiling multiple triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures. His stalking style should work perfectly with the projected pace scenario, and he’s proven at both the distance and over the Aqueduct surface. While drawn wide, his tactical speed should allow him to secure a good position as the speed sorts itself out.

LOCKED returns to stakes company after an impressive allowance win where he showed his considerable talent, romping by 7 1/2 lengths in his first start off an 11-month layoff. The Todd Pletcher trainee has made only five career starts but displayed elite ability at two, winning the G1 Breeders’ Futurity and placing in the BC Juvenile. The extra distance and second start off the bench should help, and his stalking style fits the likely race shape.

LAW PROFESSOR offers value while making his second start off a layoff. He’s 5-for-7 at Aqueduct and reunites with Kendrick Carmouche, who’s won on him before. SENOR BUSCADOR won the $20 million Saudi Cup earlier this year and ran second in this race last year, though his recent form is questionable. COASTAL MISSION enters in career-best form with back-to-back stakes wins including the G3 Forty Niner over this track.

BOOK’EM DANNO had trouble late when second in the Perryville and has run some triple-digit Beyer figures good enough to win this, albeit at shorter distances. He also finished a narrowly beaten second in the Nashua Stakes at Aqueduct last year.  REPO ROCKS is a hard-trying veteran who could factor into the superfecta with his best. NELSON AVENUE and PIPELINE figure to ensure honest early fractions but face a class test. VINSANITY appears overmatched against this accomplished group.

The race should unfold with NELSON AVENUE, PIPELINE and possibly MULLIKIN , ensuring solid early fractions through the opening half-mile. This setup favors the stalking contingent, particularly POST TIME and LOCKED, who can sit just behind the speed while avoiding potentially damaging early pressure. Deep closers like SENOR BUSCADOR will be rolling late if the pace gets too hot, but may find themselves with too much ground to make up turning for home.

The extra furlong compared to recent sprints could test MULLIKIN, but his natural talent makes him dangerous on the stretch-out. POST TIME’s combination of proven class, tactical speed, and remarkable consistency make him the most likely winner if he can work out a trip from the outside post. LOCKED has upside and looms the main danger if ready to take another step forward second off the layoff.

CIGAR MILE WAGERING APPROACH

We’ll be focusing our play around MULLIKIN, who should offer better value than POST TIME, and who has shown the tactical speed to get first run into the stretch. His recent form suggests he’s ready for a peak effort, and if he can harness his natural speed at the mile distance, he could prove tough to catch late.

Our primary investment will be win and place wagers on MULLIKIN, looking to capitalize if he can successfully navigate the stretch-out while getting the jump on POST TIME turning for home. We’ll also box these two in exactas, as their complementary running styles suggest they could finish 1-2 in either order.

While LOCKED has immense natural talent, he represents something of a wild card off just one start in the past year. Despite Pletcher’s impressive record in this race, his horses can be unpredictable when stepping up in class off layoffs, regardless of their expensive price tags and natural ability. We’ll include him in some smaller exacta boxes as insurance, but our main focus will be on the proven class and current form of MULLIKIN and POST TIME.

See you at the windows!