Lexington Stakes Prediction: Bullard’s Class vs. Praetor’s Speed (April 12)

2025 Lexington Stakes (G3) – Picks and Analysis

Keeneland, Race 9 – Saturday, April 12, 2025

Purse: $400,000 | Surface: Dirt | Distance: 1 1/16 Miles | Post Time: 5:16 p.m. ET

Lexington Stakes Picks

1. No.3 Bullard
2. No.7 Praetor
3. No.6 Gosger
4. No.8 Hypnus

Lexington Stakes Longshots

• No.5 Native Runner
• No.2 Bracket Buster

Lexington Stakes Analysis

This year’s Lexington Stakes is an intriguing race featuring talented 3-year-olds with no Kentucky Derby implications. None of the entrants has more than six qualifying points, so the Derby is practically out of reach. Instead, connections of these colts have an eye toward development and perhaps the Preakness Stakes in five weeks.

That scenario often leads to a wide-open betting race, as we have a mix of lightly tested horses and late bloomers. The favorites here are promising but not yet proven at this level, so we’ll happily shop for some value plays. We’ve seen upsets aplenty on the road to the Triple Crown, and the Lexington could offer another nice payoff for bold handicappers.

We’ll try to beat the lukewarm favorites in this field. The top choices, Praetor and Gosger, have obvious talent but short prices for horses making their stakes debuts. There are enough question marks on the favorites to justify looking elsewhere, and Bullard at 9-2 offers the right blend of class, speed, and value.

We’re also intrigued by Native Runner, an improving colt who could outrun his long odds. Below is a horse-by-horse analysis of the field (by post position), followed by a look at the pace setup and our wagering strategy.

No.1 Hard as Life (30/1)

This Gun Runner colt is a real wildcard, making his first start on dirt after racing on turf and synthetic. He ran 6th in the Leonatus Stakes over Turfway’s all-weather track last out, and he’s still a maiden special weight winner returning from a layoff. His one win came on turf at Churchill Downs, and nothing so far suggests he’s fast enough for these. On the bright side, he draws the rail and could improve on the surface switch. Gun Runner progeny often love dirt.

His recent works at Keeneland have been solid, so if he breaks sharply, he might show early speed with the inside post. Still, he would need a huge step forward to threaten. At best, he’s an extreme longshot to spice up the superfecta if he handles the dirt, but more likely, he’ll find this class too tough.

No.2 Bracket Buster (20/1)

A son of Vekoma, Bracket Buster showed promise as a 2-year-old, breaking his maiden at Keeneland last fall. He then jumped into graded company and finished 5th in the Street Sense Stakes (G3) at Churchill to cap 2024. That wasn’t a bad effort – the Street Sense was won by Sovereignty (now a major Derby contender), so he faced a tough field. This colt improved when stretching out in distance as a juvenile, indicating that route races suit him. However, he hasn’t raced in over five months, and his trainer Victoria Oliver is winning at just a 2% clip this year. He may need this race to shake off the rust.

On the plus side, top jockey Manny Franco comes in to ride. Look for Bracket Buster to settle in midpack or towards the rear and make one run. If the pace collapses, he could clunk up for a share late. Still, winning off the bench against these is a tall order. He’s an underlay at 20-1 only because of the long layoff, but if you’re looking for a deep closer to include underneath in exotics, he’s usable.

No.3 Bullard (9/2)

Bullard brings serious credentials as a graded stakes winner and might just be the class of the field. This dark bay son of Gun Runner cost $675,000 as a yearling and has lived up to the billing so far. He won his first two starts, including a convincing score in the Bob Hope Stakes (G3) at Del Mar last November, where he defeated the multiple graded stake-placed Madaket Road by nearly five lengths. In his 3-year-old debut on Jan. 4, Bullard ran a respectable third in the San Vicente (G2) at Santa Anita, finishing behind the then-unbeaten Barnes. As a sprinter, Bullard has shown a late-running style – he likes to sit off the pace and finish strong.

The big question is how that style will translate to two turns. With a longer distance and potentially slower early fractions, he may not get the blazing pace he’s used to. However, his pedigree screams route, and his Hall-of-Fame conditioner, Michael McCarthy, wouldn’t ship him to Keeneland if the colt wasn’t ready to handle 1 1/16-miles. McCarthy wins 22% with horses off similar layoffs, and he clicks at 27% when teaming up with jockey Umberto Rispoli.

Bullard has been working steadily, and if he can sit closer to the pace early, he’ll be in an ideal striking position by the top of the stretch. His speed figures are among the best in the field, and we expect a Beyer in the high-80s or low-90s based on his past races. With proven class and solid speed, Bullard is a major win contender and a great value play if his odds hold around 9/2.

No.4 Rolando (6/1) – SCRATCH (expected)

Rolando was entered in this race, but after running fourth in the Lafayette Stakes on Monday, he is expected to be scratched. The speedy son of Vekoma would have been a pace factor. He dueled on the lead early through blazing fractions in the 7-furlong Lafayette before fading late. Coming back on just five days’ rest was unlikely, and indeed, his connections appear to be skipping this spot. We mention him only because his withdrawal slightly softens the early pace scenario for the remaining field.

No.5 Native Runner (15/1)

Don’t sleep on Native Runner, a colt who has won two in a row and apparently “has never been better” according to his barn. This son of Laoban comes off a sharp win against optional claiming/starter allowance foes at Fair Grounds, where he dominated the field. He won impressively and has clearly improved over the past month. Trainer Kenny McPeek says he has this bay colt on the upswing, and Native Runner did fire a bullet workout last week at Churchill Downs. Excellent rider Jose Ortiz has the call, and tactically, Native Runner has enough speed to stay close, if he wants to.

The class test is the big question: can he step up from beating allowance-level horses to competing with graded stakes-caliber runners? At 15-1, it might be worth the gamble to find out. If Native Runner takes another step forward (perhaps improving into the mid-80s Beyer range), he could certainly grab a piece of the exotics. With his sharp form and a favorable pace setup, he’s a live longshot to hit the board or better.

No.6 Gosger (7/2)

Gosger is a lightly raced gray colt with a bright future. A homebred son of Nyquist, Gosger has run two strong races to start his career, breaking his maiden last out on Feb. 15 at Gulfstream going a mile. He earned a good enough speed figure for that effort to be squarely in the mix here with his best race. This colt is bred to love two turns and is training swiftly for his first stakes try. Critically, Gosger possesses tactical speed, a big plus at Keeneland where 1 1/16-mile races ends with a short stretch.

With Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons, expect Gosger to be forwardly placed. He can track the leaders in the second flight and pounce when asked. Class-wise, he’s jumping from a maiden into a Grade 3, but this isn’t the toughest G3, and several rivals are also unproven at this level. If he moves forward again in his third start, he has every right to contend for the win. Gosger is rightly one of the favorites and a key player; the only slight concern is lack of experience in a dogfight. Still, given his natural speed, professional running style, and top connections, he’s a must-use.

No.7 Praetor (2/1)

The morning-line favorite, Praetor brings a flashy resume: he’s a $725,000 Into Mischief colt trained by Chad Brown, and he enters off back-to-back wins. After a troubled-trip third on debut, Praetor earned a 90 Beyer Speed Figure when winning a one-mile maiden race at Aqueduct in September, defeating none other than Sovereignty, a colt who has since emerged as a major Kentucky Derby contender. That 90 Beyer is the highest speed figure in this field, and it underscores Praetor’s significant raw talent. Given a break, he reappeared March 9 at Gulfstream in an allowance optional claimer and romped by 7½-lengths going a mile.

Rather than rush him onto the Derby trail, Brown has taken a patient approach. He resisted the temptation to jump into a major prep, opting for this stakes debut to further develop Praetor. Praetor figures to be forwardly placed throughout; he generally breaks well and either sets or presses the pace. Don’t be surprised if jockey Flavien Prat puts him on the lead if the rail horse doesn’t go. Prat is excellent at judging pace, and with Rolando out, Praetor might find himself controlling things up front or sitting just off one other speed. From a class perspective, he hasn’t faced stakes horses yet, but the ones he beat have flattered him. Praetor’s recent allowance win earned him a decent figure, and he should only improve making his second start off the layoff. The only knocks are his short price and relative inexperience against battle-tested horses. Still, on paper, he is the one to beat. Praetor is a deserving favorite with a strong combination of pedigree, connections, and speed. He’s certainly a win threat, but if he’s odds-on, you may want to find value elsewhere or use him defensively in bets.

No.8 Hypnus (6/1)

Hypnus is an interesting wild card. Also by Into Mischief, this colt showed promise early when he won his debut on a sloppy track at Fair Grounds, which had people thinking he could be a Derby horse. But in his next two starts, both Grade 2 Derby preps, he was well-beaten (7th in the Rebel Stakes and 7th in the Louisiana Derby). In those races, Hypnus dropped far back and never threatened, perhaps due to the fast early paces that left him with too much to do, or maybe he just wasn’t ready for prime time. Trainer Kenny McPeek is tweaking some things to get this colt back on track: blinkers go on for the Lexington, with the aim of sharpening Hypnus’s focus and keeping him in touch with the field early.

In morning works, the equipment change seems to have helped. He fired a bullet 5f work at Churchill Downs last Monday. If Hypnus can stay within, say, five lengths of the lead entering the far turn, he has a shot to make some noise in the stretch. We know he can handle the distance (all three starts were two turns), and he’s bred to be decent. It’s possible the class of those G2 fields was simply a bit too high; this Grade 3 is easier, and his best effort puts him in the mix.

One more thing to note: Hypnus would love a wet track, as his maiden win came in the slop. Rain is in the forecast Thursday/Friday, but by Saturday the Keeneland crew usually has the track fast. Assuming a dry track, Hypnus will need to show he can step up on a fast surface. At 6-1, he’s an upside play – you’re banking on those blinkers to wake him up. There’s a chance he still only passes tired horses and runs third or fourth, but there’s also a scenario where the pace gets hot, and Hypnus comes rolling into the exotics at good odds. All told, he’s a legitimate dark horse who could outrun his odds.

No.9 Touchy (8/1)

Touchy, like Rolando, ran in the Lafayette Stakes on April 7 and was only entered here as a backup plan. He is a deep closer who would have appreciated a pace meltdown, but given the quick turnaround, he is very unlikely to start. We will assume he scratches out. If he does run for some reason, he would be an outsider coming off four days’ rest – not recommended in any wagers.

Pace Projection and Race Setup

With Rolando out, the pace scenario becomes less heated. We anticipate Praetor and Gosger to vie for the early lead. Both have shown tactical speed and should be prominent from the gate. Praetor, breaking from post 7, might clear the field or sit just outside Gosger. Native Runner also showed speed in his last race and could sit closer than he has in the past. Hard as Life is a question mark; if he breaks well from the rail, his jockey may send him to avoid kickback, at least enough to hang close to the leaders into the first turn. So the likely scenario is Praetor and Gosger on or just off the lead, with Native Runner and possibly Hard as Life pressing or stalking a length or two behind. And then there’s Bullard, who brings his own brand of speed from California after testing better.

Without a confirmed front-running speedball in the field, the early fractions should be honest but not blistering. We’re expecting perhaps a first half-mile in the neighborhood of 47-48 seconds – a fair pace for this level, but not a suicide duel. That could spell trouble for the pure closers. Bracket Buster and Hypnus will probably settle near the rear. Hypnus, with blinkers, might be a tad closer than before, but he’s still not as quick early as the top flight. Bullard is a key pace wildcard: as a sprinter stretching out, he may naturally find himself on the lead. And even if he doesn’t get the lead, he could get the ideal tracking trip behind the speed.

By the half-mile pole, Praetor and Gosger should still be dictating terms, with Praetor likely on a narrow lead and Gosger glued to him. Native Runner could be ranging up if he’s good enough, keeping them honest. Hard as Life, if he tried to go, may be fading by this point given his past stamina issues, but his presence early could ensure the pace isn’t too soft. Bullard will be inching closer from the outside, and you can bet Rispoli will start urging him to move into contention around the far turn. Bracket Buster will be asked to pick up the pace from the back, and Hypnus will try to launch a wide rally if he’s within striking distance.

Remember, the 1 1/16-mile finish line at Keeneland comes quickly. A horse with a clear lead at the top of the lane can be hard to run down. We see Praetor, Gosger, and possibly Bullard as the main players hitting the stretch with a chance to win. Praetor’s inside position and momentum could give him the first jump, turning for home. Gosger will be right there challenging, and Bullard will be charging just to their outside. Native Runner will be trying to hang on in the fight if he’s still involved. It’s at this point that class and stamina tell – will Praetor handle the pressure in his first stakes test? Will Bullard sustain his kick stretching out? Can Gosger find another gear in just his third start?

Given the expected pace, it’s less likely to see a total pace collapse. The race shape actually favors the forwardly placed horses (Praetor, Gosger, Bullard) because none of them should be exhausted by a suicide duel. That said, if Praetor and Gosger hook up and start tiring each other out in the final furlong, that leaves the door open for Bullard’s class and closing strength to shine. Bullard has shown he can finish strongly sprinting, and if he’s within a couple of lengths at the eighth pole, I like his chances to out-kick the rest.

Meanwhile, Hypnus could be finishing fastest of all from the back. He probably left himself too much to do in the short stretch, but he might catch a piece of the minors. Bracket Buster could also be picking off a few for a minor award if the pace was hotter than expected, but a win would surprise. Native Runner might stick around longer than people think. He’s fit and could hold on for a share if the favorites underperform.

In summary, the race should unfold without extreme pace dynamics: an honest but not crazy tempo, favoring a horse that can stay close and kick on. Praetor and Gosger have the tactical edge to be ahead turning in, but Bullard’s combination of stamina and finishing power might allow him to run them down late. If an unexpected pace duel erupts, then a closer like Hypnus becomes more dangerous. But more often than not, Keeneland dirt routes reward tactical speed and class.

Class and Speed Figures

From a class and experience standpoint, Bullard stands out: he’s a Grade 3 winner and Grade 2-placed, which is a notch above anyone else here. He’s faced and beaten quality horses (e.g., Madaket Road, who later hit the board in major stakes) and held his own against a top California sprinter. Praetor is arguably as talented, but this will be his first time facing winners above the allowance level. Hypnus has dabbled in graded stakes, though without success, and Bracket Buster has one Grade 3 attempt. The others are stepping up from allowance or maiden company.

Overall, the proven class edge goes to Bullard, while Praetor and Gosger represent the “new shooters” with high potential but something to prove. It’s worth noting that historically the Lexington often produces Preakness candidates rather than Derby horses, and indeed trainers like Chad Brown, Kenny McPeek, and Michael McCarthy have used this path successfully before. So even the less accomplished horses here have ambitious connections plotting big things.

Looking at speed figures, the field’s top Beyer Speed Figure belongs to Praetor, who earned a 90 Beyer in his Aqueduct maiden win. Bullard has been very consistent, and his Beyers fit perfectly here in the high 80s. Gosger earned a similar Beyer for his maiden win. Hypnus posted a strong figure in his debut but regressed slightly in the Rebel and Louisiana Derby. With blinkers on, he could bounce back up. Native Runner ran an 85 Beyer in his last race and looks to be improving fast.

Bracket Buster likely peaked in the mid/high 70s as a 2-year-old and he’ll need to step into the 80s as a sophomore, which is possible but no guarantee off a layoff. Hard as Life’s best numbers are modest, low to mid-70s on other surfaces, and it’s a guessing game what he can do on dirt. Three or four horses have very comparable speed figures at the top end, there isn’t a standout by numbers alone, which makes trip and improvement the deciding factors.

Selections and Betting Strategy

Based on the comprehensive analysis above, we’re siding with Bullard as our top pick. He offers a strong blend of proven class, competitive speed figures, and a pace setup that should allow him to showcase his closing kick. We expect Bullard to sit just off the leaders and pounce in the stretch, using his experience to edge clear late. At 9/2 on the morning line (and possibly overlooked a bit in the wagering), he represents excellent value as essentially the third choice in odds. He’s been training well and should be ready to deliver a top effort over a track that often rewards his stalking style. And he could even steal the race.

Our second choice is No.7 Praetor. It wouldn’t shock us at all if Praetor wins. He might simply be a special colt, but from a betting perspective, his 2-1 price is not enticing for a horse facing this kind of test for the first time. We do respect him as the horse to catch turning for home. Praetor’s tactical speed, sharp form, and 90 Beyer figure make him a must-use in exotics. We just wonder how he’ll react when Bullard and others put the heat on late, given he hasn’t been in a battle yet. We’ll try to beat him for the win spot but will include him underneath.

In the third slot, Gosger gets the nod. He’s another who could win without surprising; the talent is there. If Gosger takes another step forward, he may even out-finish Praetor for the exacta. For multi-race wagers, Gosger is a very logical contender to include. However, like Praetor, his odds (7/2) aren’t particularly generous, so we prefer Bullard’s value slightly more. Gosger is the type we’d hate to leave off any trifecta or superfecta ticket; he should be right in the thick of it at the finish.

Our fourth selection is Hypnus as an outsider with a shot. Among the longer prices, Hypnus at 6-1 (possibly higher by post time) has a scenario where he can crash the exacta or trifecta if the race falls apart late. The blinkers-on move and that bullet work indicate a horse that might be ready to rebound. He’s also getting significant class relief from two Derby preps down to a G3. We’re looking for Hypnus to be more engaged early, and if so, he can make a late run into the superfecta. He’s by no means a safe play, but he’s the kind of mid-priced horse who could spice up the payouts if the favorites stub their toes.

We’ll bet Bullard to win and place and use him first and second in exactas, trifectas, and superfectas with Praetor, Gosger, Hypnus, Native Runner, and Bracket Buster.

We’ll also make a small win-place bet on our favorite longshot Native Runner and wheel him first and second in $1 exactas with ALL. If he wins, fantastic – we’ll be looking at a hefty payout. If he only manages second, a place bet still nets a nice profit at those odds.

Our kind of plays!