Lecomte Stakes Picks & Predictions: Expert Analysis and Best Bets for Saturday’s Race

Lecomte Stakes Picks

1. #11 Disco Time (9/2)
2. #13 Built (3-1)
3. #3 Admiral Dennis (8-1)

Lecomte Stakes Longshots

1. #10 #Mobetterthangood (20-1)
2. #6 Golden Afternoon (20-1)
3. #7 Calling Card (12-1)

Lecomte Stake Analysis

Saturday’s Lecomte Stakes drew an overflow field of 14 three-year-olds to Fair Grounds, with enhanced Derby points of 20-10-6-4-2 attracting both proven stakes performers and promising newcomers looking to make their mark on the Triple Crown trail.

Disco Time rates top billing in his stakes debut. The unbeaten Brad Cox trainee has shown impressive versatility in his two Churchill Downs victories, demonstrating the ability to either press or stalk effectively. That tactical advantage should serve him well, given the projected pace scenario. The stretch out to two turns is a question, but his development pattern suggests he’s ready for the challenge. Hot jockey Florent Geroux is back aboard again. 

Built brings the field’s top last-out Beyer figure after controlling the Gun Runner Stakes gate-to-wire. While clearly talented, he faces a much different tactical scenario breaking from post 13 with other speed drawn to his inside. The son of Hard Spun should handle the distance, but the wide draw and likely pace pressure make him a tough play at a short price, even if he could win.

Admiral Dennis deserves another chance after a troubled trip in the Gun Runner Stakes. The Brad Cox-trained colt stumbled badly at the start that day as the favorite, then stalked a slow pace from between horses early before making a challenge three wide on the final turn. He couldn’t get to Built and threw in the towel in the stretch, so we’re not sure which way he’ll go today. His prior maiden win at Churchill was visually impressive, and jockey Joel Rosario sticks with him from an ideal stalking post. A return to his best form would make him dangerous at appealing odds.

Golden Afternoon is the most intriguing price play while trying dirt for the first time. His turf form includes a Grade 2 placing, and his pedigree suggests the surface switch could work – his sire Goldencents produced last year’s Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan. The projected hot pace could set up nicely for his closing style. He looked every bit a gutsy horse in his last two stretch runs and if he can handle the dirt, he will give his best down the lane. Surprise package.

Calling Card showed serious potential two back with a 17-length maiden romp at Aqueduct. He was checked at the start and made a strong move on the turn before drawing away to win with something left. He failed to threaten in allowance company at Oaklawn last out but did make a three-wide move into a slow pace on the turn. The addition of top jockey Frankie Dettori and a more contentious pace scenario could wake him up at a price.

The pace projects, to be honest with Built, Innovator, Maximum Promise, and Tough Catch, all possessing natural speed. Innovator was game to win his last start sprinting, and the only time he tried stakes company in the Hopeful Stakes (G1) he was bumped hard at the start. He does have Hall of Fame trainer Wayne Lukas at the helm at 10-1. 

Magnitude and several others could also show early foot, setting the table for horses with tractable running styles. That scenario particularly flatters Disco Time’s chances, as he should be able to work out an ideal stalking trip while the speed sorts itself out.

Mobetterthangood lived up to his name breaking his maiden at Saratoga in his only lifetime start and showed good acceleration in the stretch to win, going away by a length. His Beyer figure was low at 63, and he hasn’t run since that race on September 2, but he looks like he could improve if ready and at a big price. Include in your exotics. 

Jolly Samurai was no match for Kentucky Derby-bound Coal Battle in the Springboard Mile in his last, and he only earned a 72 Beyer figure, but these are not as good as Coal Battle. A bit of a sleeper, he could give a decent account of himself if the pace is just right, which it should be. Seattle Road got a dream trip up the rail to win his last start and finished second to subsequent Smarty Jones fifth-place finisher Hot Property two starts back with a Beyer figure that would be competitive here.

For betting purposes, Disco Time offers solid value at his 9-2 morning line, given the favorable setup. The exacta strategy centers on keying him over Built and Admiral Dennis while including Mobetterthangood, Golden Afternoon, and Calling Card defensively in case the pace completely collapses.

Watch the weather forecast closely – rain is possible, and the track condition could impact the race dynamics significantly, especially if a speed or closer’s bias develops.

Adjust your wagers accordingly!