Just F Y I Expected to Improve in Kentucky Oaks, Where’s My Ring Live Longshot

Kentucky Oaks (G1), Churchill Downs Race 11, Friday, May 3, 2024
3-Year-Old Fillies, Distance: 1 1/8 Miles Purse: $1.5 Million Surface: Dirt

2024 Kentucky Oaks Picks

1. Just F Y I
2. Ways and Means
3. Tarifa
4. Where’s My Ring

Kentucky Oaks Longshots: Where’s My Ring, Power Squeeze, My Pretty Woman, Everland

Kentucky Oaks Analysis

A super competitive field of 14 3-year-old fillies will battle in the 150th running of the $1.5 million Kentucky Oaks (G1) in the 11th race at Churchill Downs on Friday, and with a high expectation of rain, it will pay to watch how the track surface plays and/or changes throughout the day. If a bias develops it could make a huge difference in your betting strategy.

The speed of the race on paper appears to be Fiona’s Magic, Into Champagne and Our Pretty Woman, who drew in when Tapit Jenallie was scratched. If the track is favoring speed, those three horses deserve a closer look on class and the ability to handle a wet surface.

There are quite a few horses in here that can sit as close to the pace as they want to, including Where’s My Ring, Regulatory Risk, Thorpedo Anna, Lemon Muffin, Tarifa, Ways and Means, Power Squeeze, Just FYI and Leslie’s Rose. Gin Gin and Power Squeeze can also be close, while Everland appears to be the only true deep closer in the field. Look more closely at Everland if the track is favoring deep closers in the races leading up to the Oaks.

Gin Gin, Regulatory Risk, Tarifa, Into Champagne, Just F Y I, Leslie’s Rose, and Pretty Woman have all won on an off-track, and both Ways and Means and Everland have pedigrees that say they’ll love the wet stuff. With so many potential speed horses, many of which are proven over a wet track, this race will likely come down to trips and degrees of improvement.

With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at the major contenders while also searching for a few longshots.

Just F Y I (9/2) won all three of her starts as a 2-year-old for patient Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, including the Frizette (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) to win the Eclipse Award, and finished a willing second behind race fit fellow Oaks entrant Leslie’s Rose in her first start back off the layoff in the Ashland Stakes (G1) at Keeneland. She actually looked like she was getting a bit of an education in that race while between horses early, and she did make a decent run in the stretch while looking a little tired late. While Mott wins at only a 15% clip with horses making their second start off the layoff, he is an absolute master with a good horse and Just F Y I was probably pointed to this race all along—big chance at what should be a nice price.

Ways and Means (5-1) makes her second start off the layoff for top trainer Chad Brown after being banged around and squeezed on the first turn and winning an extended three-wide duel on the final turn in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) on March 30. She finally succumbed to fellow Oaks entrant Power Squeeze late, who had a dreamy trip stalking the duel through the final turn, but it was an excellent race off a long layoff. Brown is a solid 23 percent with horses making their second start off the layoff, and this filly has always shown talent. She broke her maiden in her first-lifetime start at Saratoga by 12 3/4 lengths and came back to finish second in the Spinaway (G1) after being rushed on the backstretch and clipping heels. Her last two works have been bullets, and it looks like all systems go.

Tarifa (7/2) has won three in row including the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) with a 95 Beyer Figure in her last, where she overcame trouble on the first turn, tracked Oaks entrant My Pretty Woman from the outside, and gamely wore that one down in a long drive. The only time Tarifa ever ran on a wet track she won, trainer Brad Cox has won this race twice and his percentages are stellar across the board, including a 30 percent win clip when teaming up with jockey Flavian Prat. If there’s one knock against Tarifa it’s the fact that the only time she ran at Churchill Downs she finished a dull fourth in her second lifetime start.

Thorpedo Anna (5-1) makes her second start off the layoff for trainer Kenneth McPeek, and while he only hits at 12 percent on the second start off a layoff, Thorpedo Anna did romp to an impressive 4-length win in her first start back off the layoff in the Fantasy Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park on March 30 going 1 1/16-miles with a 91 Beyer Speed Figure. Jockey Brian Hernandez had a good trip stalking a pressured pace in that race, but while others were asking their horses in late turn, he was still sitting chilly. When he asked Thorpedo Anna to go, she responded with enthusiasm and looked good doing it. Was it too good, too much, too soon, in her first start back? Improving and dangerous if she can overcome that 12% stat.

Leslie’s Rose (4-1) defeated Just F Y I by three lengths in the Ashland for trainer Todd Pletcher, but she did have a fitness edge in that race. Leslie’s Rose has won three of her four-lifetime starts, and top jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. has been aboard for all including the Davona Dale (G2) two back when she finished third behind Oaks rivals Fiona’s Magic and Into Champagne. Pletcher has won the Kentucky Oaks four times and Leslie’s Rose is tied for the best last race Beyer Figure with Tarifa at 95, so lots to like, but we think there’s a few in here that can improve enough to beat her.

Any one of the favourites could win this race, but if you’re looking for longshots, Where’s My Ring, Power Squeeze, and Our Pretty Woman (12-1) are all worth considering.

Our Pretty Woman (15-1) is tough to fault on form. She won her first two lifetime starts in the slop for trainer Steve Asmussen, who has won the Kentucky Oaks twice, and she almost beat fellow Oaks entrant Tarifa in her first try in a stakes race in her last start, finishing second beaten only 3/4-lengths after an excellent effort. Our Pretty Woman fits one of our favourite angles of improving again after a good race on the class raise, and top jockey Joel Rosario can only help this versatile runner’s chances.

Where’s My Ring (15-1) is another longshot who could be part of the mix late, especially if there’s a fast contested pace. She defeated fellow Oaks longshots Regulatory Risk and Gin Gin in her most recent start, drawing away to win the Gazelle (G3) at Aqueduct by 4 1/2-lengths at the Oaks distance. Most interestingly, jockey Jose Lezcano had a ton of horse throughout in the Gazelle, and if you watch that race closely you can see that she made four mini moves on the inside before being asked to wait a bit on the final turn, moving to the outside into the stretch, and wearing down fellow Oaks entrant Regulatory Risk in the drive before drawing out. The quality of that performance was excellent and the price will be right.

Power Squeeze (12-1) defeated Oaks entrants Ways and Means and Into Champagne while winning her fourth race in a row in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) on March 30, but she did stalk a duel through the final turn. Still, she might just do that again here, and her trainer Jorge Delgado is underrated. She also fits the road warrior angle, as her four consecutive wins came at three different tracks.

 

And finally, for a real flyer, consider using Everland (30-1) on your Superfecta tickets, especially if the track is favoring closers late in the day. Everland is the only true deep closer in a field that could potentially feature a pace-battle meltdown. Claimed for just $30,000 four starts ago, Everland won the $300,000 Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway Park in her last start after getting through inside on the final turn, but it’s not like we’ve never seen huge longshots come flying up the rail to win major stakes at Churchill Downs. Mine That Bird’s 2009 Kentucky Derby comes to mind. Everland has never run on the dirt either, making her the ultimate gray-horse-in-the-mud surprise package.

Our main play will be Just F Y I to win-place, and we’ll also take her first and second in the exotics with both our top selections and our longshots. We’ll make a smaller win-place bet on Where’s My Ring and also wheel her up and down in a $1 exactor just in case…

The impossible happens.