Jim Dandy Stakes 2024 Betting Preview: Expert Picks and Analysis
Race: Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) Race 10
Where: Saratoga Racecourse
When: Saturday, July 27, 2024
Distance: 1 1/8-Miles
Purse: $500,000 Surface: Dirt
Jim Dandy Stakes Picks
- Seize the Grey
- Batten Down
- Sierra Leone
Jim Dandy Stakes Analysis
The more we looked at the Jim Dandy Stakes, the more confused we got, but that’s the handicapping puzzle, so here’s what we came up with.
Sierra Leone (1-1) is the heavy morning-line favorite and he should be. He’s the only confirmed closer in a field loaded with speed and he’s got class to back him up with a win in the Bluegrass Stakes (G1), a second beaten a nose in the Kentucky Derby (G1), and a third in the Belmont Stakes (G1), which was notably run at Saratoga. The only thing he may not be able to overcome is the speed bias of the Saratoga surface.
The Jim Dandy goes as the 10th race, so we’ll know long before that whether the speed bias is in play. If the track is friendly to off-the-pace types, Sierra Leone is the obvious horse to beat, considering each of his five rivals like to be on or near the lead. If the track is favouring speed, we have better choices, but not easy ones.
Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Seize the Grey (6-1) should be the inside speed, and while he wasn’t able to handle the classier Dornoch on the front end in the Belmont, he might be able to put this bunch away over a speed-favouring surface. His work pattern has also been excellent for Hall of Fame trainer Wayne Lukas. We especially like that six-furlong work on July 16. He might be the fittest horse in the race too, but that’s a much longer discussion.
Wire-to-wire Ohio Derby (G3) winner Batten Down (5-1) steps up in class for this race, and he has opened up early in his last two races. It will be tougher for him to get a clear lead in here, but it’s not out of the question for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. And if you’re into watching replays, take a look at the middle move Batten Down made three starts back when he finished third in a Maiden Special Weight race at Keeneland. That move wouldn’t look as good against Saturday’s rivals, but it shows us he has the ability to accelerate when asked, a very important key to winning races.
Pony Express (20-1) arrives from Santa Anita after a wire-to-wire victory in a Maiden Special Weight race. Trainer John Sadler must think he can steal this race with his California speed, but at present he has to prove he’s both fast enough and classy enough to beat this kind. Gould’s Gold (15-1) finished a hard trying second in Batten Down’s Ohio Derby, and he likes to come from just off the pace. He doesn’t appear classy enough to win this, but he might just get a perfect trip.
Last year’s 2-year-old champion and this year’s Florida Derby (G1) winner Fierceness rounds out the field and on his best day he is good enough to beat these, but he hasn’t run since finishing 15th in the Kentucky Derby on May 4, so we’re not sure which Fierceness we’re going to see, the champion or the wilter.
If the track is favoring closers, we’ll be playing Sierra Leone in exactas over Seize the Grey and Batten Down. If the track is favoring speed, and we can get the right odds, we’ll play both Seize the Grey and Batten Down to win, box them in the exacta and take a few smaller exacta tickets with each of them on on top of Sierra Leone. There just has to be a way to make money on this race.
Go Greys Go!