Improving Dresden Row the Pick to Upset in Saturday’s Autumn Stakes at Woodbine

Autumn Stakes (G2)

Race: 10
Venue: Woodbine
Date: Saturday, November 16, 2024
Distance: 1 1/8 Miles (Tapeta)
Purse: $175,000

Autumn Stakes Picks

• No.11 Dresden Row (8-1)
• No.7 Paramount Prince (7-2)
• No.9 Never Surprised (10-1)
• No.1 Artie’s Storm (10-1)

Autumn Stakes Longshots

• No.5 Stanley House (12-1) – Consistent closer with improving form
• No.3 Wicked Django (20-1) – First-time blinkers
• No.4 Sir London (10-1) – Motion trainee trying synthetic
• No.2 Tosen Wish (20-1) – Casse/Civaci combo with European synthetic form

Autumn Stakes Analysis

Saturday’s Grade 2 Autumn Stakes at Woodbine sets up as an intriguing matchup between rapidly improving 3-year-old Dresden Row and local synthetic specialist Paramount Prince, with turf-to-synthetic convert Never Surprised looming as an interesting wild card in a deep field of twelve.

Dresden Row enters in career-best form for trainer Lorne Richards, sporting back-to-back graded stakes victories with matching 91 Beyers. He also has vastly underrated jockey Ryan Munger, who has been aboard for all eight of his lifetime starts.

The improving son of Lord Nelson is 5-for-8 lifetime and undefeated in his last two over this track, the most recent at today’s distance. While he’ll face older horses again, his tactical speed and recent domination of the local 3-year-old division make him the one to beat. Notably, he was bet down to 9-2 when this race was canceled last Saturday and was co-favored in the daily doubles with Paramount Prince.

Paramount Prince returns after a disappointing fifth as the favorite in the Durham Cup (G3), where he encountered pace pressure before fading. Prior to that, the Mark Casse trainee had strung together impressive back-to-back graded stakes wins with Beyers in the mid-90s. The speed of the speed, he’ll have regular rider Patrick Husbands aboard and should be prominent from the outset from post 7, though he could face early pressure from several rivals.

The most intriguing challenger is Never Surprised (post 9). The classy turf specialist tries synthetic for the first time but is working brilliantly over the surface, including a recent 46.40 half-mile drill. With hot apprentice Adams aboard and tactical speed to secure good position, this son of Constitution could prove dangerous if he takes to the Tapeta.

A legitimate price play is Artie’s Storm (post 1), who enters fresh off a sprint win with a field-best 99 Beyer. While he’ll need to stretch back out, this multiple graded stakes winner loves the Woodbine synthetic and his regular rider Moran is aboard again. At 10-1 on the morning line, he merits serious consideration if ready to route.

Several intriguing longshots merit consideration in this competitive Grade 2 event. Wicked Django (20-1, post 3) gets an equipment change to first-time blinkers. Sir London (10-1, post 4) represents an interesting synthetic experiment for high-percentage trainer Graham Motion and has been working steadily over the Tapeta.

The Casse-trained Tosen Wish (20-1, post 2) brings intriguing European synthetic form and gets top jockey Civaci. Stanley House (12-1, post 5) has been a consistent check-getter (13: 3-5-2) while chasing the top local runners. His strong closing kick could be dangerous if a pace battle develops up front.

Wagering Strategy for the Autumn Stakes

Win/Place Bets:

• Win bet on No.11 (Dresden Row) at 4-1 or higher
• Backup win bet on No.1 (Artie’s Storm) if 10-1 or higher
• Consider small win/place on No.5 (Stanley House) at 12-1+

Exacta Strategy:

• Box No.11 and No.7 (Dresden Row and Paramount Prince)
• Key No.11 over No.9, No.1 (Dresden Row over Never Surprised, Artie’s Storm)
• Key No.7 over No.11, No.9 (Paramount Prince over Dresden Row, Never Surprised)
• Consider exacta box with all horses 10-1 or higher (No.1, No.3, No.4, No.5, No.9)

Trifecta Strategy:

• Primary Ticket: No.11, No.7 with No.11, No.7, No.9 with No.11, No.7, No.9, No.1, No.5
• Secondary Ticket: No.9 with No.11, No.7 with ALL
• Include No.3 (Wicked Django) in bottom of trifectas if 20-1 or higher

Superfecta Strategy:

• No.11, No.7 with No.11, No.7, No.9 with No.11, No.7, No.9, No.1, No.5 with ALL
• Consider spreading deep in the fourth position, given the presence of several viable price horses

The improving Dresden Row appears poised to continue his ascent against older runners, while Paramount Prince could prove tough to catch if he shakes loose on the lead. Never Surprised is the wildcard who could surprise at a price if he takes to the synthetic surface, and several appealing longshots add value to the vertical exotics.