Haskell Stakes Analysis & Selections
Dornoch Mindframe Rematch in $1 Million Haskell Stakes at Monmouth
Haskell Stakes (G1), Race 12, Monmouth Park, Saturday, July 20, 2024
Haskell Stakes Picks
- Dornoch
- Mindframe
- Timberlake
- Fierceness
Haskell Stakes Analysis
Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Dornoch (5/2) takes on seven rivals in Saturday’s Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park, including the horse he defeated in the Belmont Stakes, but this time trainer Todd Pletcher will try to triple-team him.
Dornoch was our longshot in the Belmont and paid off handsomely at 17-1 after finally getting the nice pressing trip we were hoping for after troubled inside trips in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) and Kentucky Derby (G1). Dornoch has again drawn the inside for the Haskell, but we’re going to take a shot he can get the trip he needs in a much shorter field than he met in the Kentucky Derby.
Trainer Todd Pletcher will be trying to beat Dornoch with three different horses in the Haskell, but rumours are that two of his entrants may be scratched. If not, you can be sure Pletcher is going to send one of them to get the lead off Dornoch.
Pletcher saddles morning line favourite Mindframe (9/5) along with Pegasus Stakes winner Tuscan Sky (9/2) and Florida Derby (G1) winner Fierceness (5/2) in the Haskell. The latter could take the lead if he really wanted it, while Tuscan Sky could at least force the pace from the outside if asked. Both could throw a wrench into Dornoch’s attempt to get a smooth pressing or leading trip from Post 1.
Mindframe would be the beneficiary if either horse bothered Dornoch on the early pace, and he might have been able to defeat Dornoch in the Belmont if he’d been battle hardened. Instead, making only the third start of his life in the Belmont, he appeared to come up short, and also raced a little greenly in the stretch. If Mindframe improves off that race and someone can force Dornoch into an uncomfortable trip, he is your most logical winner
There are a number of horses in the Haskell besides Pletcher’s trio that could hound Dornoch early, but they probably don’t have enough class to pass him when it counts. They could however, force Dornoch to work a little more than he’d like too early, even with a good trip inside.
Dornoch will likely try to make the lead, and if he does, he will be tough to beat as he shortens up in distance from 1 ¼-miles to 1 1/8-miles. If the late Charlie Whittingham or Woody Stephens were training Mindframe, we’d like him even at a short price, but the fact that he wasn’t fit enough last time makes us wonder if Pletcher will have him ready. That’s enough to make us shy away from him at a short price.
If everything goes according to plan, as it never does, Dornoch will take the early lead on the inside under pressure from one or more rivals, and he should be able to shake loose turning for home. He’ll then have to fend off Mindframe again.
Mindframe isn’t the only horse in the Haskell that would benefit from a fast pace. Rebel Stakes (G2) winner Timberlake (8-1) also has a chance at an upset. He finished fourth to the tough Muth in the Arkansas Derby (G1), and was barely beaten for third in that race by subsequent Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan. Timberlake is fresh and making his first start off a 14-week layoff. His trainer Brad Cox scores at an 18 percent clip off this type of layoff, and the race could set up for his horse.
Fierceness will likely attract some good betting action based on the triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures he earned winning both the Florida Derby and last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), but he has yet to prove he can overcome adversity, and he may get a healthy dose of that if Dornoch is on his game.
Dornoch has already proven that he has the heart and class he needs to win the Haskell with his preferred trip, while Mindframe is the logical play to improve off his second-place finish to Dornoch in the Belmont, in which he was beaten only half a length.
Dornoch bailed us out on the season when he won the Belmont, and we’ll be playing him again in the Haskell, and not just for sentimental reasons. With both Fierceness and Mindframe expected to attract a lot of attention at the windows, that should leave Dornoch at a nice price that might even match his morning line odds.
Logic says Dornoch shouldn’t win, but we think he can, regardless of whether he gets triple-teamed or not. Logic was never our strong point.
Dornoch to win and place.