Gunrunner Stakes Picks & Predictions – December 22nd, 2024
Event: Gunrunner Stakes
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt)
Purse: $100,000
Conditions: 2-Year-Olds
Date: Saturday, December 22, 2024
Track: Fair Grounds Race Course
Race: 7
Gunrunner Stakes Picks
- Admiral Dennis
- Magnitude
- Built
Gunrunner Stakes Analysis
Admiral Dennis started his career off in a Maiden Special Weight at Churchill Downs going 6 1/2-furlongs and finished third beaten two lengths after a brutal trip in which he broke inwards, lacked room inside on the turn while full of run, and then lacked room in every direction to deep stretch, when he finally tired of being guided every which way but loose.
That race set him up for his second lifetime start, and he didn’t disappoint as the favorite after a clean trip pressing the pace from the outside, challenging the pacesetters three-wide in mid-turn and dueling an inside rival into submission by mid-stretch, drawing out to win by 3 1/2-lengths and earning a field best 83 Beyer figure.
Magnitude tired in his wide debut going 5 1/2 furlongs in his Maiden Special Weight debut at Churchill Downs, but came right back to win his next start at Ellis Park, showing speed from the outset, rating and drawing away in professional fashion going seven furlongs.
He then stepped up in class in the Iroquois (G3) going a mile at Churchill Downs and pressed outside favorite Jonathan’s Way, who later finished seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and second in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2). It was too much too soon.
Magnitude was then laid off for 60 days and came back on November 17 with a victory in a $100,000 N1X allowance race going 1 1/16-miles at Churchill Downs, the distance of today’s race. He pressed the pace from the outside, opened a short clear lead in late turn, and fought hard to hold off the second choice throughout the stretch. An excellent performance, and he earned an 80 Beyer figure for his efforts, second best to only Admiral Dennis in here.
Built makes his third-lifetime start and first start back after winning a Maiden Special Weight race going seven furlongs at Keeneland on October 6. He was third via a DQ in his debut at Ellis Park while racing a bit greenly, and showed much more speed in his second start mentioned above, pressing outside and showing good acceleration to take over in late turn, opening up and digging in through the stretch to hold safe. Difficult to tell how good he might be, but he did show good character in that race and earned a 77 Beyer. Any improvement at all puts him in the mix.
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Render Judgement finished second in his Maiden Special Weight debut going seven furlongs at Keeneland On October 6 behind fellow Gunrunner entrant Built, lugging in but finishing willingly. He then came back to win a Maiden Special Weight at Churchill Downs in his next start going 1 1/16-miles after stalking a forced pace from the inside and again racing greenly but willingly in the stretch.
He was then thrown to the wolves in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs and finished fifth, beaten 8 1/2-lengths, although he was still trying late. These are easier, but whatever happened to trainers who ran their horses in non-winners of two-lifetime allowance races after breaking their maiden?
Chris’s Revenge was steadied early in his debut in a $50,000 Maiden/Optional Claiming race at Belmont Park going six furlongs and ended up fifth after moving up within striking distance on the turn and then tiring in the stretch.
He came back to break his maiden in his next start going 6 1/2-furlongs in a $50,000 Maiden/Optional Claimer, also at Belmont Park. In his next start going a mile at Churchill Downs in a starter allowance he stalked wide and was never really a threat despite a duel up front in the race.
The Gunrunner should set up with Built on the lead early, possibly pressured by Magnitude, with Admiral Dennis tracking a pressured pace followed by Chris’ Revenge and Render Judgment.
Built should be up for a fight, but he hasn’t run since October 6, and his trainer, Wayne Catalano is only eight percent with repeat winners. If the track is favoring speed he has a chance to turn back Magnitude, but on a fair surface Magnitude should be able to get by him at some point in the drive for trainer Steve Asmussen, who is 19 percent with both repeaters and horses making their second start off the layoff.
Magnitude will then have to hold off Admiral Dennis, who is trained by Brad Cox operating at a 30 percent clip with repeat winners. Admiral Dennis looks like he has some quality to him, but he’ll need it to get by Magnitude.
We’ll take Admiral Dennis over Magnitude and Built in the exacta and reverse it for half the amount. We’ll also take an extra exacta box of Admiral Dennis and Magnitude. They’re the favorites, but some races just don’t give you a longshot.
Who would have thought you could write so much about a five-horse field?
Go chalk!