Fountain of Youth Stakes: Expert Picks & Longshot Predictions

2025 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) Picks and Analysis

Gulfstream Park, Race 13 Saturday, March 1, 2025

Purse: $415,000 Surface: Dirt Distance: 1 1/16 Miles Post Time: 5:44 p.m. ET

Kentucky Derby Points: 50-25-15-10-5

Fountain of Youth Stakes Picks

• #8 Keep It Easy
• #6 River Thames
• #3 Burnham Square
• #2 Sovereignty

Fountain of Youth Stakes Longshots

• #7 Neoequos, #1 Gate To Wire

Fountain of Youth Stakes Analysis

The Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Saturday features a number of logical favourites, none of which are very enticing, so we’ll try to build on our wheelbarrow score last week in the Rebel Stakes (G2), when Coal Battle (12-1) and Madaket Road (6-1) ran 1-2 and triggered some incredible exotic payoffs including a $1 exacta that paid $113.90, a 50-cent trifecta that paid $202.90 and a 10-cent superfecta that paid $374.97.

The last time we made a score like that was when Dornoch won the 2024 Belmont. It’s tough to find great overlays in the Kentucky Derby preps and Triple Crown races, and you know we hate betting on favourites. That being the case, we’ll be playing a longshot to win the Fountain of Youth, knowing full well the favourites could beat us.

We’re not as confident about Keep It Easy and Neoequos as we were about Coal Battle and Madaket Road in the Rebel, but we’re using their money now so we’ll take a shot on them.

Horse-by-horse analysis by post position follows below.

Gate to Wire stalked a fast three-horse duel in the Swale Stakes in his last, challenged four-wide in late turn and romped away from the tiring duel winner in the stretch. That was his second start off the layoff and he improved his Beyer figure by an astonishing 30 points from 63 to 93. He won’t likely get the same dream trip in this race, and these horses are better than those he met in his last, but he did show some class on the turf last year in the grassy Futurity (G3) at Aqueduct before finishing tenth in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1) after some minor trouble, but he was never going to be a factor in that race. Likely to be close to the pace in this longer race and hoping for another perfect setup.

Sovereignty makes his first start since winning the Street Sense (G3) at Churchill Downs in late October. In that race he broke slow, steadied behind horses while trailing the field on early backstretch, remained last to the final turn and then made a five-wide move from mid turn to take over in the stretch and romp away. That was an impressive effort in his third lifetime start, the problem with him is that he takes a while to get rolling at top speed.

He might be the best horse in here, and he might even be the kind of horse that can win the Kentucky Derby with some improvement, but he’s going to have to stay somewhat in touch with the field and make a big late run. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott may or may not have him cranked up for this race, and the Derby might be the true objective, so if you’re going to play him you’ll need at least 3-1 odds, which is his morning line.

Burnham Square won the prep for this race, the Holy Bull Stakes, after stalking a pressured pace from the inside, challenging outside in late turn, wearing down an early mover and finally drawing out late to win with something left. He looks like a decent but not flashy horse that could work out another nice trip inside from Post 3.

McEllan finished sixth beaten 14 lengths in the $150,000 Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream Park on January 4 and showed little interest after being in perfect position outside and just back of the leader to late turn. His numbers are much lower than the best in here and we just can’t see him winning this.

Solid Left ran on February 27 and finished fifth in an allowance race. We can’t imagine him running back in here, and even if he were allowed to, we wouldn’t be playing him. Not good enough.

River Thames has won his two lifetime starts impressively at Gulfstream Park and has enough natural speed to stay close from the outset. He also has that rare ability to accelerate, at least with the company he has faced so far. A $200,000 yearling, like most horses trained by Todd Pletcher, he looks like he’s still figuring out how to run. He bobbled mildly three times during his last start for no apparent reason and yet romped away to win easily over N1X allowance horses going a mile and earned a 92 Beyer figure to go with the 94 he got first time out. Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez will give him every chance to win, and he might just do that as the 2-1 morning-line favourite.

Neoequos is the speed of the race coming off a wire-to-wire allowance win going six furlongs in the slop at Gulfstream Park in his first start off a 90-day layoff. He’s placed twice in restricted stakes including the $200,000 Affirmed Stakes at Gulfstream last year going seven furlongs, in which he scored a 91 Beyer figure. He’s always on or close to the lead, and we expect him there on Saturday. In the two stakes Neoequos finished second in as a 2-year-old he was hounded by the same 1-5 shot Rated by Merit. He was no match for that one, but it wasn’t for lack of trying, and now he gets a rider switch to leading rider Irad Ortiz, Jr. What happens if he opens up early and slows down the pace? Could he steal it at 10-1? Watch to see if the track is favouring speed and play accordingly.

Keep It Easy is another who has shown speed on occasion while sprinting at Churchill Downs and Saratoga, but he hasn’t been seen since a romping off the pace win in the $225,000 Ed Brown stakes at Churchill Downs on November 30. He’s trained by Dale Romans, who can occasionally have a good horse ready to run big at long odds, and this horse did cost $435,000 as a yearling.

Keep It Easy got an 87 Beyer figure for his 5 1/4-length win in the Ed Brown and many horses do improve as 3-year-olds. And note, the horse he put away when he broke his maiden last year at Churchill Downs was Sandman, who recently finished third in the Rebel Stakes (G2) as the favourite, and who also finished second in the Southwest Stakes (G3). Also, the horse he beat in the Ed Brown Stakes, Tough Catch, came back to win the $100,000 Sugar Bowl Stakes at Fair Grounds before finishing thirteenth in the Lecomte Stakes (G3). Not sure how much talent this horse has, but his trainer can pop with a good horse, we may not have seen the best of this one yet, and he has the speed to stay close.

On paper the race should set up with Neoequos on the lead early with River Thames pressing from the inside and Keep It Easy possibly pressing from the outside. If Neoequos gets an easy lead and is able to set a slow pace those two will have to work to put him away in early stretch. Burnham Square and Sovereignty will be rallying from three or four lengths behind the top three.

Based on fitness and class, we’d have to give the edge to Burnham Square, who will have to catch whichever of the three speed horses is left standing after battling from late turn. Sovereignty may be good enough, but he may not be cranked up for this race. River Thames may have more talentWith so many question marks on the most logical horses, we’re going to take a shot on Keep It Easy, hope that trainer Dale Romans has him ready and that he improves as a 3-year-old.

Keep It Easy is 8-1 on the morning line, and he might even be higher than that on race day. And because of his odds, we’ll bet him to win-place and use him first and second with River Thames, Neoequos, Burnham Square, Sovereignty and Gate to Wire in our exactas, trifectas, and superfectas. We’ll also play a $1 exacta wheel Neoequos with ALL and make a smaller win-place on that horse, just in case jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. fools them all.

Our kind of plays!