Fierceness Looks Solid in 150th Kentucky Derby, but Longshots Enticing

2024 Kentucky Derby Picks

1. Fierceness
2. Sierra Leone
3. Catching Freedom
4. Stronghold

Kentucky Derby Superfecta Longshots: Dornoch, Domestic Product, Resilience, Just a Touch, Honor Marie, Just Steel, Endlessly

Kentucky Derby Analysis

The 150th Kentucky Derby is basically Fierceness (5/2) against the world and the mud, and he might just outclass the field.

The 110 Beyer figure Fierceness earned winning the Florida Derby (G1) by 13 1/2 lengths towers over this field, and the 105 he earned in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is also better than any other horse in this year’s Derby. In fact, only one other runner in this year’s Derby has cracked the triple-digit mark on the Beyer scale. Mystic Dan recorded a 101 Beyer figure in the Southwest Stakes (G3) in the slop at Oaklawn Park two starts ago.

Some are saying Fierceness can’t win without the lead, or when facing adversity, pointing to his loss in his first start back off the layoff in the Holy Bull (G3), but he was clearly short for that race, tiring noticeably in the drive. With that race under his girth, a fitter Fierceness romped in the Florida Derby. And even if his Beyer figuren was inflated by the fact that he was the lone speed in that race, he has already proven he can press and pounce, as he did in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) last year.

Additionally, Fierceness won his first lifetime start in the mud at Saratoga, so he shouldn’t have too much trouble with what is likely to be mud at Churchill Downs on Saturday. It was muddy on Friday, and there was a 40 percent chance of rain on Saturday. The track favored horses that could be close to the pace or on the lead on Friday, and more of the same is expected on Derby Day.

If the rain doesn’t come on Saturday and the track begins to dry out and become tiring later on the card, then it might be time to look at the closers in this race, but for now, the surface should favor those who can stay within four to five lengths of the lead.

Fierceness may or may not get the lead from post 17, but he can press from the outside regardless, and we’ll see what he’s made of when the running starts. If you’re looking for a reason to bet against him, he’s never run at Churchill Downs, and the mud at Churchill is a whole lot different than the mud at Saratoga. Some horses handle it, while others flounder. Which will he be? Horses who have already won on a wet surface include Fierceness, Dornoch, Sierra Leone, Mystic Dan, Just a Touch, Forever Young and Society Man.

Fierceness faces more quality speed in the Kentucky Derby than he did in the Florida Derby, some of whom might carry it a long way if able to make the lead and slow down the pace. The other likely speed in this year’s Derby includes Dornoch (20-1), Track Phantom (20-1) and possibly Stronghold (20-1), Epic Ride (30-1), and Japanese invader T O Password (30-1). Horses who can sit close include Mystic Dan (20-1), Catalytic (30-1), Just Steel (20-1), Just a Touch (10-1), Forever Young (10-1), West Saratoga (50-1), Grand Mo First (50-1), Resilience (20-1), and Domestic Product (30-1).

Behind the above will be the closers, which include second choice Sierra Leone (3-1), Catching Freedom (8-1), Honor Marie (20-1), Society Man (50-1) and Endlessly (30-1), all of whom will have to somehow negotiate their way through a log jam of tiring speed horses on the final turn and into the stretch.

With the exception of Fierceness, most of the speed horses and pressers are longshots, while the contenders based on form and class are closers who may have to rally into the teeth of a speed bias, along with the mud and 19 rivals. That makes this year’s Derby a real puzzler.

You can play Fierceness on numbers, class, and running style, you can play the pressers if you think he’ll falter, or you can play the deep closers at odds that are likely worse than they should be.

If the track is favoring speed, the race sets up with Dornoch being sent hard early from the rail in an effort to gain early command over the other speed horses. Dornoch will be our longshot speed pick based on the fact that he had an uncomfortable trip steadying more than once in the Bluegrass Stakes (G1) in his last start, when unable to get the lead. He hated his trip in that race, and when he finally did get a chance to run late on the final turn he rallied only mildly.

While Dornoch doesn’t necessarily need the lead, he does need clear running room. He’s a free running horse and he never got the chance to show his true colors in the Bluegrass. His victory in the muddy Remsen (G2) at Aqueduct last year was a thing of beauty however, and he deserves another chance at a great price. Note however, that if Dornoch doesn’t get out of the gate and near the lead from the rail, his race could be over very quickly.

If Dornoch does get the lead, he will likely be under pressure from one or more rivals which could include Track Phantom, T O Password, Epic Ride, Fierceness, and possibly Stronghold. Of that bunch, if Fierceness falters, game Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Stronghold is the most likely to take first advantage, and he could get the jump on his rivals into the stretch for underrated trainer Phil D’Amato. Stronghold showed excellent heart in the Santa Anita Derby to duel even-money favorite Imagination into submission, and he has also won at Churchill Downs.

Among those that will be just back of the speed, Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Catching Freedom, Blue Grass runner-up Just a Touch, Tampa Bay Derby (G3) winner Domestic Product and Wood Memorial (G2) winner Resilience should also make bids into the stretch. Catching Freedom has top connections in trainer Brad Cox and jockey Flavien Prat, he has won at Churchill Downs, and he did make a strong wide move to win the Louisiana Derby. Cox also trains Just a Touch.

Domestic Product has the top-notch combo of trainer Chad Brown and jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr., and he showed good courage down the stretch in the Tampa Bay Derby. Resilience has Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott at the helm, and although he is still learning, he did look good winning the Wood Memorial with second time blinkers, and he could improve again in the Derby, we’re just not sure if he’s good enough at this stage. Hall of Fame rider John Velasquez takes off Resilience to ride Fierceness for this race, and Junior Alvarado picks up the mount.

Clear second choice Sierra Leone has proven he can negotiate his way through traffic and he has been impressive winning both the Risen Star (G2) and the Bluegrass Stakes (G1) in his last two starts from well off the pace. Expected him to swing wide for the drive and give his best in the lane trying to close into the teeth of the predicted speed bias. If the bias disappears, he has a bigger shot to win.

Fierceness is clearly the horse to beat in the Derby, with Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom the next most logical plays. Stronghold and Resilience are solid longshots, and we’ll take Dornoch as our flyer speed horse at a big price up and down in exactors and exotics. And what about Endlessly, who has won five of six starts at four different tracks on both turf and synthetic but who has never run on the dirt? The forgotten horse? Just a Touch, Honor Marie and Just Steel should also be included in your Derby superfectas.

Fierceness will be tough to beat with his best race, but the longshots are enticing, and he can’t be trusted 100 percent. Use Fierceness top and bottom in your exotics, but also make sure to play some additional multi-horse combinations with Fierceness not in the top two.

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