Expert Pegasus World Cup Picks: Best Bets and Longshot Predictions

PEGASUS WORLD CUP INVITATIONAL

White Abarrio the Pick in Pegasus, Stronghold has Longshot Chance, And a Flyer on a Tryer!

Race 13, Gulfstream Park, Saturday, January 25, 2025
1 1/8 Miles (Dirt) | Grade 1 | Purse: $3 Million

Pegasus World Cup Invitational Picks

1.  No.4 White Abarrio
2.  No.11 Locked
3.  No.6 Stronghold

Pegasus World Cup Invitational Longshots

1. No.9 Mystik Dan
2. No.12 Power Squeeze

Pegasus World Cup Invitational Analysis

The $3 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational headlines a stellar card at Gulfstream Park on Saturday that includes nine stakes. The Pegasus features a compelling mix of established graded stakes winners, an emerging talent, and a hard-trying filly. The field includes 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner White Abarrio, upstart Locked, Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan, Santa Anita Derby winner Stronghold, and a lone filly, Alabama Stakes winner Power Squeeze.

The race sets up with Mixto, Saudi Crown, Newgrange, and Skippylongstocking on or near the lead followed by White Abarrio, Stronghold and Locked, with the deep closers including Crupi, Steal Sunshine, Vitality, Mystik Dan and Power Squeeze.

We’re expecting a big race from White Abarrio, who appears to be rounding into form beautifully. He should stalk a pressured pace and move to the lead on the turn for home. Locked may be the most talented horse in the field, but we’re unsure if he’ll handle the class raise, stretch out, and different track. If he does, he’ll be charging down the outside late. Stronghold could outrun his odds if he can get into the fight in early stretch.

Last year’s Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan is a mystery but has been working well, and Alabama Stakes winner Power Squeeze gets reunited with top jockey Javier Castellano, who won two stakes on her last year.

Below is our horse-by-horse analysis of the Pegasus, followed by our wagering strategy.

Mixto forced the pace in the Native Diver at Del Mar in his last and dueled into the stretch, tiring late to finish third. These horses are better, and he’s also lost twice to fellow Pegasus entrant Newgrange, who is off form but who also adds more speed to this race. Difficult to see how Mixto can work out a trip good enough to win this. We see him as part of the pace but not able to cut it late when the running starts.

Saudi Crown will be one of the pacesetters in here but while many are thinking he might steal the race, we’re thinking there’s more speed in here than he wants to face. He did win the Tenacious Stakes at Fair Grounds in his last and looked good doing it after pressing from the outside, but he’s on the inside here and when he had that spot in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile he went straight backwards on the turn for home.
The pace will be slightly softer here than it was in the Mile, but these horses are much tougher than he faced in his last race. Capable of running big numbers good enough to win this on his best day, he seems to be a little finicky at times, and we can’t play him with confidence. If he does happen to open up early and slow down the pace, he’s got a chance to steal it.

Newgrange has a new trainer now, moving from Phil D’Amato to Jose D’Angelo after going completely off form in his last two starts. He’s beaten fellow Pegasus entrant Mixto twice in Grade 2 stakes, but that was a year ago, and he hasn’t run since July. He could be part of the pace but will be up against it based on his last two races and the long layoff.

White Abarrio got a trainer switch from Richard Dutrow to Saffie Joseph and looked powerful in his comeback race going seven furlongs for his new trainer after a five-month layoff. He was then left with too much to do in his next start in the Mr. Prospector Stakes, also at Gulfstream going seven furlongs, and finished second with a good wide rally.
Normally we wouldn’t like a horse getting a trainer switch from Dutrow to anyone, but this horse looks like he’s on top of his game right now, and he should get just the right pace scenario to set up his move on the turn with top jock Irad Ortiz Jr. up. He’s capable of running huge races on his best days, and we hope this is one of them. The 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner is also 6-for-8 at Gulfstream Park and will have no problem with the distance. The pick.

Crupi is a deep closer who will need a strong pace to set up his late run. He has some good races to place in Grade 1 stakes, but he just never seems to have enough to get there, and he’s probably not as good as many in here. Can rally for a superfecta share with a perfect trip.

Stronghold is one of the most intriguing horses in the Pegasus. He’s finished first or second in nine of his 10 lifetime starts. The only time he finished out of the money was in the Kentucky Derby and we’ll give him a break on that race. Last year’s game, Santa Anita Derby winner, in his most recent start in the Malibu Stakes going seven furlongs at Santa Anita, was too far off the pace and couldn’t get close to Raging Torrent in the drive.

We expected him to run a bit better that day, but he likes to fight in the stretch if given the chance, and he never got that chance in the Malibu. The longer distance of the Pegasus should work to his favor and we’re expecting him to run well at a nice price. More likely an exotic player but not out of the question in the win spot with only slight improvement and the right trip.

Steal Sunshine appears a cut below these on numbers and class, but he does have a stellar record of 6-2-6 from 18 starts at Gulfstream Park. A closer who will be a huge price, we’re not sure he’s going to like this distance or the company, but he’s worth including in your trifectas and superfectas at huge odds as a late rallier with a good pace setup.

Vitality was no match for Steal Sunshine in the Harlan’s Holiday Stakes at Gulfstream Park in his most recent start, and Canada’s Prince of Wales Stakes winner has never broken the 90 mark on the Beyer scale. These look too tough for him.

Mystik Dan won the 2024 Kentucky Derby in a blanket finish with a great trip and came back to run a good second in the Preakness behind lone speed horse Seize the Grey. He then finished a well-beaten eighth in the Belmont Stakes and looked like a tired horse. Given six months off, he came back to run a dull sixth in the Malibu Stakes. Did the Triple Crown trail cook his goose, or can he regain his best form? 
He has a few nice bullet five-eighths works at Gulfstream Park coming into the race, and backstretch rumors say he’s ready for a big effort. This horse is a guessing game, and he might not even be good enough to win this, but he will be a good price and deserves another chance.

Skippylongstocking is another in here who likes to be close to the pace and he has put up some good numbers beating lesser while never quite measuring up with the best. We’re thinking he’ll press and make a bid, but get passed in early stretch. One public handicapper picks him to win, and he will be a price, but we just can’t see it.

Locked is the now horse after impressive wins in a comeback allowance and the Cigar Mile at Aqueduct. Looked good late in the Cigar and he’ll need that late kick to win this. Still lightly raced with upside, he has talent, but trainer Todd Pletcher’s horses tend to figure things out for themselves and get fit along the way. He’ll need to improve again to beat a field better than he faced in his last, going further than he’s ever gone, on a track he’s never run on, but he should get the right pace setup and he does have talent. In his case, it’s up to him. Will he dig deep and find the heart and class he needs to beat these? It’s possible, but at a short price out of a wide post, we’d rather take a proven commodity like White Abarrio.

Power Squeeze is the only filly in the Pegasus, and she drew the widest post. She’s run some big races against fillies, winning the Alabama Stakes at Saratoga with a determined stretch-long rally, and there’s just something about her that makes you like her. In her last start, she moved early into a slow pace on the turn in the Rampart Stakes, going a mile at Gulfstream Park, and finished well to be beaten a neck. 
Something else in her favor is that she gets a rider switch back to Javier Castellano, who was aboard for her wins in the Delaware Oaks and the Alabama Stakes. While her numbers don’t quite measure up, if she gets a perfect trip and a great pace scenario, she could finish in the trifectas and superfectas.

We’ll play White Abarrio to win and place, with exactas using him over and under Locked and Stronghold. We’ll also use him in some smaller exactas with Mystik Dan and Power Squeeze. And as a longshot flyer, we’ll bet $2 win/place on Power Squeeze and wheel her up and down with ALL in $1 exactas at a huge price. A flyer on a tryer!

Good luck!