Emery the Class of Raven Run Stakes, Mink’s Palace, Riperton the Heart Plays
Raven Run Stakes (G2)
Race Number: 9
Track: Keeneland
Date: October 19, 2024
Distance: 7 Furlongs
Surface: Dirt
Purse: $350,000
Raven Run Stakes Picks
- No.5 Emery
- No.4 Twirling Queen
- No.3 My Mane Squeeze
Raven Run Stakes Longshots
- No.7 Mink’s Palace
- No.9 Riperton
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Raven Run Stakes Analysis
The 2024 Raven Run Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday features an excellent field of ten 3-year-old fillies in a very competitive race. Emery is the logical favorite, but there are some upset possibilities and interesting heart-factor longshots.
Emery is the clear favorite off her second-place finish in the muddy Test Stakes (G1) at Saratoga in August. The horse that beat her in that race, Ways and Means, might be the favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1). Emery has the top Beyer Speed Figures in the field and the speed to go with them, but she doesn’t need the lead to win. She’s run twice at seven furlongs, recording a win and a second; trainer Brad Cox is on a hot streak right now, and jockey Tyler Gaffalione is winning at an astonishing 37% clip for him.
The obvious horse to beat.
My Mane Squeeze looked good winning the Dogwood Stakes (G3) in her last going today’s distance of seven furlongs, stalking a forced pace between horses and taking over on cue in the stretch, drawing away to win by five lengths over fellow Raven Run entrant Fibber. And note that jockey Luis Saez had choices in here.
Saez rode Twirling Queen to victory in three of her last four starts, including her most recent win at Saratoga going five 1/2-furlongs on the turf in the $150,000 Coronation Cup Stake, and although that was way back in July, she can fire fresh. Saez was also aboard Mink’s Palace for her last start, a win over allowance company going six furlongs at Churchill Downs.
Saez rides a lot of horses for top trainer Michael Maker and wins at a 16% clip for him, so maybe that’s why he chose My Mane Squeeze, but she also looks legitimate on both class and Beyer Speed Figures, and she’s a specialist at the tricky seven-furlong distance, going 2-1-2 from five starts.
While Twirling Queen has won four in a row, two of those races were on turf, and two were on synthetic. She’s only 1-for-4 on the dirt, but those races were all run when she was a 2-year-old, and she’s a better horse now. She’s also quick, but doesn’t need the lead to win. She might find herself on the lead here, and she knows how to win, having done just that at four different tracks. Class and distance are a question, but leave her out of the exotics at your own peril.
Mink’s Palace was well beaten by Raven Run entrant Fibber (10-1) two starts ago going today’s distance in the $173,000 Audubon Oaks at Ellis Park, but came back to beat fellow entrants Riperton by a head and V V’s Dream by 2 ½-lengths in a $125,000 optional claimer going six furlongs in her last start at Churchill Downs.
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V V’s Dream always rallies but never seems to get there, so we won’t be using her in our exactas. Mink’s Palace should, at the very least, be used as a longshot in your exactas, trifectas, and superfectas. Fibber has run first and second at today’s distance, and although she was well beaten by My Mane Squeeze in her last start, she has run a 95 Beyer at the distance and could get a dream trip behind a contested pace here and rally to finish in the exotics.
Miuccia (6-1) has traded wins with fellow Raven Run entrant Haulin Ice (12-1) in her second and third starts back. In her last race she finished third in the six-furlong Prioress (G3) at Saratoga and she can run a figure good enough to put her in the bottom rungs of the superfecta and trifectas. She also gets top jock Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Haulin Ice had been ultra consistent until her last start, when she finished seventh beaten 12 ¾-lengths in the Charles Town Oaks (G2). My Mane Squeeze finished second in that race, seven lengths in front of Haulin Ice. Prior to the Charles Town race, Haulin Ice hadn’t been worse than second in seven lifetime starts, including a big win two back in the seven-furlong Azalea Stakes over the synthetic at Gulfstream Park, which she won impressively by 9 ½-lengths with Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the saddle. Irad shows up on Miuccia in this race, while Haulin Ice gets a 1-for-38 jockey. Surprise package.
Riperton could be the sleeper in the Raven Run. She finished a game second beaten a head by Mink’s Palace going six furlongs in her most recent start at Churchill Downs. She received a 90 Beyer for that effort, and she is 1-1-1 from three starts at seven furlongs. She looks like a filly who would need a perfect trip behind a duel to win this, but it’s also notable that she finished second going 1 1/16-miles over the Keeneland surface in an allowance race last year.
Every filly in this race looks like they could get the lead if they were sent for it, and a few likely will be. Emery looks like the class speed, while Twirling Queen is very quick and could try to sneak to the lead. That might set the race up for seven-furlong specialist My Mane Squeeze, who looks like the classiest closer. Keep in mind however, that the Keeneland surface has been kind to speed horses this season.
We’ll use Mink’s Palace and Riperton as our main longshots based on their courageous efforts in their most recent race.
If we can get 8/5 on Emery, we’ll play her to win and place, but that seems unlikely, so we’ll focus on the exotics with her on top of Twirling Queen and My Mane Squeeze, with smaller tickets putting her in second with those horses. We’ll also add Mink’s Palace and Riperton in a few smaller exactas and use those two in third and fourth in the trifectas and superfectas.