Breeders’ Cup Picks and Analysis for Saturday, November 2, 2013
If you’re ever going to make a score at the races, this Breeder’s Cup Saturday at Santa Anita would be the day. There’s an $891,813 Pick-5 carryover starting on the first race, a $1 Million guaranteed Pick-4 on races 4-7,
a $2.5 Million guaranteed Ultra Pick-6 on races 7-12 and a $3 million guaranteed late Pick-4!
Two things stuck out after the first round of Breeders’ Cup races at Santa Anita on Friday. The track is speed biased and European
horses are the best in the world on the turf. Add to that the horses for courses angle in the three downhill turf sprints on Saturday and we have our plan of attack.
Of course, if the track profile suddenly changes on the dirt and it is no longer favoring speed after the first few races Saturday, we’ll have to adjust accordingly, but for the picks below we’re going to assume Friday’s angles will keep working.
The Pick-6 on Friday paid over $107,000 and the early Pick-4 paid over $58,000.
Hoping for more of the same!
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Breeders’ Cup Picks for Saturday, November 2, 2013
RACE 1 – Juvenile Turf Sprint
1. Towindtohaulrox 2. Love In The Desert 3. Dothraki 4. Richies Party Girl
Going with the horses for courses angle we’ll take Toowindytohaulrox, who owns the only win in this field over the downhill turf course,
to upset favored European Loveinthedesert. We’ll also throw in longshot Dothraki as a potential upsetter. He finished second behind the top choice over this course in his last and could improve. Richies Party Girl had trouble in her last and is might be good enough to win this if she happens to get loose on the lead. South Sound is another speeder with a longshot chance to steal it if she clears to the lead
on the turnback to 6 1/2-furlongs after flopping against much better going a mile.
RACE 2 – Damascus Stakes
1. Flashback 2. Anillo 3. Show Some Magic
There’s no question that Flashback is the best horse in here and he will be a key for many in the Pick-5, the problem is he hasn’t run in
six months. He’s run well fresh in the past however and is the horse to beat. Anillo will try to steal it and hope the pick gets tired in the stretch. Third place is a toss up between Zeewat and Show Some Magic. We went with the latter only because he looks like he might be able to sit closer to the pace on a speed favoring track. Zeewat ran a good race in his last against decent company and has about as good an
upset chance as Show Some Magic if the favorite tires in the drive.
RACE 3 – The Senator Ken Maddy
1. Pontchatrain 2. Ultrasonic 3. Purim’s Dancer 4. Qianona 5. Winding Way
You can make a case for almost every horse in this race based on the horses for courses downhill turf angle, and this looks like a good race to spread in. Pontchatrain was impressive in her last making her first try on the downhill turf course a winning one. She also has the hot combo of Gary Stevens and Thomas Proctor going for her. European Ultrasonic could very well outclass this bunch but she makes her first start on this tricky course and first in North America. Purim’s Dancer is another Proctor charge with a stellar record of 4-0-1 from five starts over the course and Proctor
did win this race last year, but note jockey Stevens had a choice and took the Ponchatrain. Qianona won the $100,000 California Distaff Handicap on this course in her first try on the course in her last and is not out of the picture. Numerous rivals in here have experience on this course and thus have a longshot chance to win, but the horse that confuses us the most is Winding Way. In her last start she was beaten 22 lengths going a mile in her first turf start over a yielding course at Keeneland, yet jockey Bejarano looks like he could also have ridden Judy In Disquise or Minds Eye in here. Why is he on this horse?
RACE 4 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies
1. She’s A Tiger 2. Secret Compass 3. Sweet Reason 4. Artemis Agrotera
The only reason She’s a Tiger lost to Secret Compass in her last was because she had to put away the other speed first. At 6-1 on the morning line
with Gary Stevens aboard and more speed than Secret Compass on a speed-favoring track, she could turn the tables at a price. Sweet Reason had a terrible start in her last when she lost to speedier rival Artemis Agrotera in the Frizette at Belmont, but she hasn’t been working that well here and she also has to come from off the pace. Could she win? Yes, but as the likely favorite with a running style that could go against the bias, we’ll try to beat her. Artemis Agrotera has speed and rider Lezcano is one of the best in the east. Definite shot.
RACE 5 – Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf
1. Romantica 2. Dank 3. Laughing 4. Marketing Mix
Romantica and Dank fit the European angle and the former has a slight class edge over her rival as a Group 1 winner going this distance in France. Dank outclassed her rivals in her North American Debut at Arlington 2 1/2-months ago at Arlington in the Grade 1 Beverly D and could easily upset the pick if that one doesn’t bring her “A” game. Laughing is the lone speed with Lezcano, she’s proven at the distance and she’s won four in a row. Come and catch her. Marketing Mix was second in this race last year and has the Gary Stevens Thomas Proctor combo going for her.
RACE 6 – Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
1. Ismene 2. Dance to Bristol 3. Sweet Lulu 4. Groupie Doll 5. Book Review
If Ismene opens up in here and the track is still favoring speed she has a legitimate chance to steal it at a big price, although her odds are likely to be lower than we had hoped for based on Friday’s speed bias. Dance to Bristol finished second to the undefeated Cluster of Stars in her last and she meets none as good as that one in here. She’ll need some help up front to set up her rally from just off the pace but she has three wins and two seconds from five starts at the distance. Sweet Lulu is another speed play who should stay close to the top choice throughout and she did have some trouble in her last. Groupie Doll won this race last year and would do so again with the same race, but her form hasn’t been quite as good this year. Book Review is a 5-0-1 from seven starts at the seven furlong distance but will have to run through the bias to win.
RACE 7, GEICO Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint
1. Mizdirection 2. Caracortado 3. Reneesgotzip 4. Capo Bastone
Mizdirection is the horse for course at 6-for-6 over the downhill turf at Santa Anita. She won this race last year and can do so again with a clean trip, but it will be close. Caracortado has won twice from five starts on this course and make his second start off a long layoff after just missing to a couple of these over this course in his comeback race. He can run some dynamite races at times, he gets a rider switch to Gary Stevens we’re thinking he could be ready to run a big one while still fresh. Reneesgotzip will take them as far as she can on the front end. Capo Bastone is the sleeper. He has some class to him and he makes his first start on the turf for a sire that is 10/44 with first time turfers. Joel Rosario in the irons helps his chances as a live longshot play.
RACE 8 – 2013 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
1. Tap It Rich 2. Havana 3. New Year’s Day 4. Strong Mandate
Tap It Rich was impressive breaking his maiden after getting left in the gate and drawing off to win going a mile. Only slight improvement would make him very tough to beat in here and both his trainer Bob Baffert and rider Mike Smith certainly know how to win these races. Havana is the logical class favorite and also has the speed to take advantage of the speed bias if it repeats itself on Saturday. New Year’s Day has been working well for his first dirt start, he’s proven at a route and he should be able to sit just off the speed. Strong Mandate looked like a world beater in the Hopeful in New York and trainer Wayne Lukas said he might be the best 2-year-old he ever trained. Of course he then ran nowhere in the Champagne Stakes against Havana. He’s been working well at Santa Anita and we’re wondering if he could rebound with a big race at a nice price.
RACE 9 – Breeders’ Cup Turf
1. The Fuge 2. Magician 3. Big Blue Kitten 4. Indy Point
Back on the turf and once again we’ll go with the two Europeans, both of whom should have a class edge on this field with Group 1 wins. The Fugue should have won the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf last year and Magician gets first time Lasix. If one of these two fires they should win. Big Blue Kitten had to wait for room in his last and should have won the Turf Classic at Belmont at today’s distance of 1 1/2-miles. Indy Point is an interesting longshot Group 1 winner in Argentina that has won two of three in the US and could have room to improve yet. Little Mike won this race last year at 17-1 and beat Big Blue Kitten in his last with a better trip than that one. He seems to win when you don’t expect him too, which would again be today. Point of Entry would have won this race last year without trouble and his best race is good enough, but we wonder if he’s the same horse after suffering an injury in June. Top trainer McGaughey makes him a must use if you’re spreading in this race.
RACE 10 – Xpressbet Breeders’ Cup Sprint
1. Secret Circle 2. Justin Philip 3. The Lumber Guy 4. Private Zone
Secret Circle was on the Kentucky Derby trail last year before getting derailed and the year before that he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint. He looked good winning his first start off a 1 1/2-year layoff. He’ll likely need a perfect trip behind an all out speed duel in just his second start back, but at his best he looks to be just a notch classier than this bunch. Justin Philip is another who will need a duel up front but he almost always runs his race and he should be closing late. The Lumber Guy just missed in this race here last year and could come with a big one again at a nice price. Private Zone got an easy lead in his last and will not likely have that luxury here with Sum of the Parts and last year’s sprint winner Trinniberg in the field. Keep in mind that if one of these speed horses gets loose they could go all the way.
RACE 11 – Breeders’ Cup Mile
1. Olympic Glory 2. Wise Dan 3. He Be Fire N Ice 4. Silver Max 5. Cristoforo Colombo
Wise Dan is the best horse in here when he’s on his game and he will likely be the heaviest bet key in the Breeders’ Cup. That being said, he comes into this race after finishing second to Silver Max when that race was switched from turf to synthetic at Keeneland. Back on turf today, but coming into this race off a loss and at a short price. we’ll try to beat him with classy Group 1-winning miler Olympic Glory, who comes into this race in great form. He Be Fire N Ice is a longshot rallier who always runs his race and at a big price he’s worth using in the exotics. He needs a duel to set up his rally. Silver Max is in the best form of his life right now and comes into the race full of confidence off three wins in a row. Watch out if he gets the lead by himself. We don’t know what to make of Cristoforo Colombo, a European with only average form getting first time Lasix, but we’re using him on some tickets as a longshot on the hidden Euro angle. Za Approval is also capable of being in the triactor.
RACE 12, Breeders’ Cup Classic
1. Mucho Macho Man 2. Palace Malice 3. Flat Out 3. Fort Larned
Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Fort Larned, likely favorite Game On Dude, and Moreno all want the lead in here. Game On Dude got left in the gate last year in this race and flopped, but even if he does get out of the gate this time he has other speed to contend with, and the horses he’s been beating up on this year in California are nowhere near as good as what he faces today. He has a shot to win if the speed-bias is on and he gets the lead by himself, but he will be overbet. Mucho Macho Man just missed in this race last year to Fort Larned and now he gets a likely duel to run at. His winning prep race for this was a a beauty and it looks like, finally, all systems are go for this tough guy. Palace Malice lost the Jockey Club Gold Cup when Ron the Greek came up with the best race of his life. The fact that he got finished second beaten 6 3/4-lengths in that race hides his form a little and he looks like he could be the value play in this year’s Classic. Flat Out is a trainer angle play with Bill Mott at the helm. He’ll need a duel but he does have some class and did finish third in this race last year. We’ll take Fort Larned to put away the other speed in here and if he gets the lead by himself as he did when winning this last year he will be very tough to get by. Just ask Mucho Macho Man. The more likely scenario is that a duel develops.
Should be a great day at the races! Good Luck!