2009 Breeders’ Cup Picks and Analysis for Saturday, November 7 Races at
Santa Anita
Below are the picks and analysis for the 2009 Breeders’ Cup races that
take place on Saturday, November 7 at Santa Anita. Be sure to use ALL in the Breeders’ Cup Classic in your
multi-race wagers. Could be some good longshots today and we had a good day yesterday by taking all in a few races and hitting some good Pick 4s. We’re hoping for some even bigger payoffs today!
Good Luck!
2009 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile TURF Picks and Analysis
Race 2, Santa Anita
1. Pounced 2. Becky’s Kitten 3. Interactif 4. Gallant Gent 5. Codoy
6. Buzzword
There’s a ton of natural speed in the Juvenile Turf, much of it from
the Europeans, and it doesn’t appear anyone will be able to steal
this race on the front end. Both Pounced and Buzzword are capable
of making the lead if they want to but they don’t need it. If either
improves on Lasix they might be too much for this group, although we prefer
Pounce based on the fact that his trainer won this race last year. Woodbine
based runner Bridgetown also doesn’t need the lead and should challenge
into the stretch. Based on the fact that we think there is going to be a
duel we’re going to include longshots Gallant Gent and Becky’s
Kitten in our selections. Gallant Gent ran a huge race in the Norfolk at
38-1 over Pro Ride and now tries turf for the first time and gets a rider
switch to Rosario. Becky’s Kitten has lower Beyer Speed Figures but
finished gamely between horses after some minor trouble in his last, the
Summer Stakes at Woodbine. Interactif comes into the race off two Grade
3 turf wins and was widest of all on the final turn in his last before taking
over. We just don’t know what he was beating up on.
2009 Breeders’ Cup TURF SPRINT Picks and Analysis
Race 3, Santa Anita
1. Delta Storm 2. Noble Court 3. Diamondrella 4.
Lord Shankakill 5. Strike The Deal
If nobody goes with California Flag in this race he will be very tough to
beat, but what other choice does Canadian Ballet have but to gun for the
lead. We think they’re going to duel and set the race up for a rallier
and a longshot at that. Delta Storm loses his rider Rosario to Noble Court,
but he picks up Gomez and he also exits two very tough races. He finished
third behind Gayego in the Grade 1 Ancient Title in his last over Pro Ride
and was beaten only a neck by California Flag going five furlongs on the
Del Mar turf in the start before that. While his numbers are a little on
the low side, trainer Mike Mitchell’s horses tend to outrun their
odds in Breeders’ Cup races at Santa Anita and this horse is worth
a shot at a great price. Noble Court won over this course in his only start
on it and in his last two starts he’s been up against Breeders’
Cup Sprint favorite Zensational, so he can be excused for his third and
second place finishes. He should get a good trip behind the speed and be
finishing late. Diamondrella is a perfect 7-for-7 in her last seven turf
starts and would be coming into this race on an eight race win streak if
not for a failed experiment at Presque Isle Downs over Tapeta. She knows
how to win. Cannonball has never run over this track but he seems to run
his race no matter where he shows up, including a second place finish two
starts ago in the Group 1 Jubilee Stakes at Ascot in England. He might prefer
a shorter race but can’t be counted out. The Europeans are intriguing
in here. Strike The Deal comes off a Group 3 sprint win in England where
the horse he beat came back to win a Grade 1 sprint in France. Grade 1 winner
Lord Shanakill apparently returned lame after his last race in July, but
has been training well locally and may just be the class of the field.
2009 Breeders’ Cup Sprint Picks and Analysis
Race 4, Santa Anita
1. Gayego 2. Capt. Candyman Can 3. Fatal Bullet 4. Zensational 5.
Fleeting Spirit
Zensational will be heavily favored in the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Sprint
and will be a key on many tickets, but we’re not so sure about him,
especially if Fatal Bullet outbreaks him. Remember Fatal Bullet ran a monster
second to Midnite Lute in this race last year and he can also sizzle through
the second quarter, which would not make things easy for Zensational if
he can get to that one early. We’re expecting Fatal Bullet to take
a round out of Zensational, who hasn’t been beating up on much while
winning four in a row including three Grade 1s. We bet Gayego last year
in the Kentucky Derby but soon afterwards thought he might eventually turn
into a very good sprinter – and he has! Now trained by bin Suroor
Saeed, Gayego smoked his way home from the back of the pack to win the Grade
1 Ancient Title in his last and we think he can improve again. He might
need some pace help up front to set up his rally but we’re hoping!
Capt. Candyman Can finished full of run in his last to be beaten only a
half length by Fatal Bullet in a Grade 3 at Keeneland. He’s another
who needs a duel up front but who will be a great price. If European shipper
Fleeting Sprit was getting Lasix we’d be all over her. She finished
fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint here a year ago after a slow
start and is a Group 1 sprinter Europe. We’ll use her underneath in
some smaller exotic tickets.
2009 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Picks and Analysis
Race 5, Santa Anita
1. Lookin at Lucky 2. Pulsion 3. Radiohead 4. Noble’s Promise
5. D’Funnybone
Lookin at Lucky draws a poor wide post for this but remains the horse to
beat. He’s done everything asked of him to be a perfect 4-for-4 over
Pro Ride and has the hot rider trainer combo of Gomez and Baffert. He doesn’t
need the lead to win and that’s a good thing because he won’t
get it here. This will be his toughest test to date but he is definitely
the horse to beat. Pulsion apparently hasn’t been working well but
his last race qualifies him as a possible upsetter if a pace battle develops.
He outfinished a number in the Norfolk and looked gutsy doing it. And he
will be a nice price. Radiohead is sired by Johannesburg, who was a Euro-shipper
winner of this race in 2001. A majority interest in him was recently purchased
by IEAH Stable and he could be a real surprise package on Lasix etc. Has
been facing some decent horses in Europe and looks like he’s still
learning and improving. Noble’s Promise has to be respected off three
wins at three different tracks in his last three starts, including a win
at the distance over the synthetic track. D’Funnybone ships in from
New York for Dutrow and could try to steal it. Last year New York shippers
didn’t fare well here but as the possible lone speed and a trainer
that is winning at 27 percent he has to be given a shot but we hate the
short price on him.
2009 Breeders’ Cup Mile TURF Picks and Analysis
Race 6, Santa Anita
1. Goldikova 2. Delegator 3. Cowboy
Cal 4. Gladiatorus 5. Zacinto
Defending champ Goldikova drew a tough post in here but she is the class
of the race and also gets Lasix this year. She tired after forcing the pace
in her prep for this but doesn’t need the lead to win and should get
a good trip stalking a forced pace. Remember how she looked beaten in trouble
last year before exploding to win when she got clear. A clean trip this
year makes her even tougher to beat. Cowboy Cal can be gutsy and he will
be a pace factor. He’ll probably get pressure from Gladiatorus up
front which could be the undoing of both of them, but if he gets loose watch
out. Gladiatorus returned to good form in his last to win a Group 1 in Italy
and will be a nice price. Once rated as the best turf miler in the world
he can’t be left out with trainer bin Suroor Saeed at the helm. Zacinto
made a strong bid in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II at Ascot in his last
before succumbing to the very tough Rip Van Winkle and looks like he might
still be improving. He also beat fellow entrant Delegator in that race,
but now Delegator gets Lasix and he doesn’t. That could make a big
difference. Justenuffhumor is a sleeper having beaten Cowboy Cal twice
and he will be a good price coming off a dull race over soft turf at Keeneland.
Whatsthescript finished third in this race last year to Goldikova and could
run in the tri and super again at decent odds. Fernely comes off a good
second place finish to Venture in the Woodbine Mile and should also be finishing
at a nice price.
2009 Breeders’ Cup Mile DIRT Picks and Analysis
Race 7, Santa Anita
1. Mastercraftsman 2. Neko Bay 3. Midshipman 4. Pyro 5. Chocolate
Candy 6. Furthest Land
There’s no question the class of this race, it’s Mastercraftsman,
who romped in his last going 1 5/16 miles in a Group 3 in Europe. In his
two races previous to that he finished second and third behind super horse
Sea The Stars. Despite the fact that his connections chose not to run him
on Lasix, he is also the fittest horse in the race. If he handles the Pro
Ride he wins, but he’s certainly not worth singling at a short price.
Neko Bay is trained by John Shirreffs, whose horses just seem to run well
here, especially in the Breeders’ Cup with its stiffer medication
rules. He’ll be close throughout and should be one of the first to
go after likely pacesetter and last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
winner here Midshipman. If the latter gets loose and sets a slow pace he
could prove tough to catch. Pyro looked great winning his last and is a
different horse than he was last year at this time. He likely needs a pace
battle but can’t be underestimated at what should be a solid price.
Chocolate Candy has been facing better and is another that would benefit
from a pace battle. He will also be a nice price and should be included
in the exotics. Furthest Land has won 7/15 and has the best synthetic Beyer
Figure in the field. At odds of better than 20-1 he has to be used in tris
and supers.
2009 Breeders’ Cup TURF Picks and Analysis
Race 8, Santa Anita
1. Conduit 2. Dar Re Mi 3. Spanish Moon 4. Presious Passion
Conduit is the choice to repeat in the Breeders’ Cup Turf but feelings
are that this time it will be tougher for him – but he does get Lasix
for this year’s rendition and could improve. His fourth place finish
behind super horse Sea The Stars in his last, the Group 1 Arc de Triomphe
in France, was solid and he is set up perfectly for this race. Four-year-old
filly Dar Re Mi probably would have won the Breeders’ Cup Filly and
Mare Turf but opted for this race instead based on the fact that she loves
the distance. She also gets first time Lasix and was only a length behind
Conduit in the Arc. If Conduit falters watch out. Conduit’s stablemate
Spanish Moon has won two group races in a row at today’s distance,
gets first time Lasix and could be peaking for this race. Precious
Passion will open up a long lead early and try to steal the race, but these
are tougher than what he’s been facing in North America. Despite the
fact that we think the Europeans are going to swallow him late, we’ve
learned our lesson about leaving out the lone speed, so we have to include
him in our multi-race wagers.
2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic Picks and Analysis
Race 8, Santa Anita
NOTE: We consider this an ALL race and think it’s the toughest race
on the car to pick, so we’re going with longshots and hoping for the
best.
1. Twice Over 2. Summer Bird 3. Richard’s
Kid 4. Zenyatta 5. Rip Van Winkle 6. Mine That Bird
We think the classic is the toughest race on the Breeders’ Cup this
year on the card and an ALL leg in multi-race wagers. The likely favorite
on class is European shipper Rip Van Winkle, whose only losses there this
year have come against Sea The Stars, but rumors are he has foot problems
(but apparently he runs with them regardless.) Second choice Zenyatta is
facing tough males for the first time and she is moving way up in class
today. Hard to fault her perfect record, but… Summer Bird probably
has the most upside and we’ve been betting on him all year, but he’s
never run on Pro Ride. Richard’s Kid is in sharp form and should make
them all run late. He also has trainer Baffert in his corner. Mine That
Bird is intriguing based on the fact that he probably doesn’t run
on as much medication as the others normally do and that’s a plus
with the stricter Breeders’ Cup medication rules. Colonel John has
an outside chance but a good horse will always beat hm. Gio Ponti looks
like he’s in the wrong race but this race is probably an easier spot
for him than the Breeders’ Cup Turf and he has won on this surface
at Santa Anita. Einstein almost always comes to play. Besides Summer Bird,
Girolamo seems to have the most chance to keep improving but he’s
trying Pro Ride for the first time while stretching out to face much tougher
than he’s been facing. Quality Road isn’t as good as he was
when trainer Jimmy Jerkens had him but he does have both class and speed.
The most intriguing horse in the race for us is Twice Over, who comes into
his race with three straight victories at the distance including a win in
the Group 1 Champion Stakes in his last. He could be peaking for this race
at a great price!
Good Luck!
