Breeders’ Cup Picks and Analysis for Friday, October 30, 2015
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf-G1
Race 6, Keeneland, 2YO, 1 Mile, Turf, Purse $1 Million
1. Cymric
2. Camelot Kitten
3. Shogun
4. Airoforce
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Cymric just missed in his last start, the Jean Luc Lagardere-G1 in France, and despite what the comments say he was getting to the winner late. That field was much better than the one he’ll face today and if he accelerates like he did in his last they’ll have a tough time staying with him.
Camelot Kitten had some trouble in his last and finished enthusiastically behind fellow Juvenile Turf entrant Airoforce, who had a great trip close to a slow pace and drew out late. Shogun is a value play coming out of the same race that Cymric finished second in, finishing sixth but beaten only 1 3/4-lengths. He accelerated late like Cymric, but couldn’t quite stay with that one late.
Airoforce looks like he could get another perfect trip here, which gives him a chance. A number of the remaining entrants had trouble in their previous starts, mostly to the same degree, yet none looked like they were going to move much ahead in their next race, which is this one.
Las Vegas Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile-G1
Race 7, Keeneland, 3YO and Up, 1 Mile, Dirt, Purse $1 Million
1. Liam’s Map
2. Lea
3. Wicked Strong
4. Red Vine
Liam’s Map is quick from the gate and he can keep going after setting a fast pace. There’s no real class speed to go with him early and anything that does will cook themselves.
Mr. Z could try to take some starch out of Liam’s Map early but he just doesn’t look like a serious threat to bother that one enough to leave him empty for the stretch. Lea opted for this race after it looked like the turf would come up less than fast and probably comes into this race sound, healthy and ready to run a big race after a decent second place finish in the Woodbine Mile-G1 for top trainer Bill Mott.
He should also be able to get first run on the closers. Wicked Strong is another trainer play with Jimmy Jerkens at the helm but he will need some heavy pace up front to close on Liam’s Map. As will Red Vine, who will rally with the other two as far as he can. He could possibly complete the exactor.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf-G1
Race 8, Keeneland, 2YO, 1 Mile, Turf, Purse $1 Million
1. Harmonize
2. Nemoralia
3. Alice Springs
4. Mirage
The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies looks totally wide open to us and is a must-spread race in the multi-race wagers. Any of the 14 entrants in here could win. We think some of the Euros might be over the top in here and many of the North American entrants either had trouble in their previous starts or could be set to improve after impressive wins.
Harmonize looped her field in the Jessamine-G3 at Keeneland and has top trainer Bill Mott in her corner. Sapphire Kitten, the runner-up in that race, also has a shot to win here at much higher odds.
European Nemoralia looks like an overlay at 15-1 after her second place finish in the Frizette-G1 in the slop at Belmont combined with an impressive try earlier in her career against the talented Group winner Ballydoyle. And prior to the Frizette she defeated 18 rivals in a minor stake in England. She’s our best longshot play in here.
European Alice Springs certainly tries hard and might have a class edge on these after finishing third in the Moyglare Stud Stakes-G1 behind top European runners Minding and Ballydoyle and fourth in the Cheveley Park Stakes-G1 two starts back behind fellow entrant Illuminate.
Illuminate finished a narrowly beaten second in the same race, but her trainer Richard Hannon hasn’t had much luck in North America, so we’ll be trying to beat this one at a short price.
Last Waltz could be an overlay at 20-1 off her third place finish in the Weld Park Stakes-G3 but we’re thinking she’ll get swamped late after making first run on the speed horses. She does however get a trainer change to Chad Brown along with removal of blinkers and the addition of Lasix.
Mirage is our second best longshot in here. She ran greenly in fits and starts in her first North America start in the Surfer Girl Stakes at Santa Anita and was making an enthusiastic late run up the rail when she was checked hard. She wouldn’t have won, but it would have been close and if she moves forward off that race despite the hefty class raise she could be right there at the wire at monster odds.
Gliding By was left in the gate in her debut going a mile on the turf at Woodbine and still somehow managed to win on class while lugging in down the lane. Conditioned by Bill Mott she has plenty of upside and could be any kind. The same could be said for Chad Brown trainee Pricedtoperfection, who looked good after being in tight in early stretch to break her maiden at Belmont. She’s another who could improve dramatically.
Ruby Notion is very quick and could steal it if she can open up early on fellow speed horse Catch A Glimpse, who looked good wiring her field in the Natalma-G2 at Woodbine in her last. If one of these two gets loose they might just lead the field on a procession.
Tin Type Gal defeated fellow Juvenile Fillies Turf entrant Thrilled by a nose in the Miss Grillo-G3 at Belmont in her last and they both fought gamely late. Andreya’s Reward did what was asked of her to win after being in tight at the top of the stretch in the Our Dear Peggy Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
Did we miss anyone? This race is a crapshoot!
Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff-G1
Race 9, Keeneland, 3YO and Up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/8 Miles, Dirt, Purse $2 Million
1. Stellar Wind
2. Got Lucky
3. I’m a Chatterbox
4. Sheer Drama
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The Distaff isn’t that tough to decipher, but it’s difficult to pick a winner. There are numerous speed horses in here so we’ll go with a couple of closers at a price.
Stellar Wind looks like a solid sleeper at 20-1 on the morning line. She’s been beating up on lesser competition at Del Mar and Santa Anita but she’s looked good doing it.
Got Lucky ran a big race in her last to win the Spinster-G1 at Keeneland at the same distance as the Distaff and retains one of our favourite jockeys in Irad Ortiz Jr. At 6-1 on the morning line she represents decent value based on the trip she could get and her class, but we are worried that the Spinster could have taken something out of her.
With Wedding Toast trying to steal the race and likely being under pressure from My Sweet Addiction, Stopchargingmaria, Calamity Kate, Yahilwa and Sheer Drama at some point, the race should set up perfectly for the top two. That being said, Sheer Drama, Yahilwa and Stopchargingmaria can be very game on their best days and all have a shot to win with their best efforts.
And it should be noted that if any of the speed horses manages to slip away early in here and set a slow pace, they do have enough class to steal this race.
More logical is the battle scenario however, which gives I’m A Chatterbox, Frivolous and Curalina all a chance at nice odds. Salama is the wing and prayer crazy longshot at 50-1 that could win if there is a complete pace melt down.
Again, this is a spread race in the multi-race wagers.
Good Luck!
