Breeders’ Cup Picks and Longshots 11/5/22

Breeders’ Cup Picks and Longshots for Saturday, November 5, 2022
Keeneland Race Course

Race 3 – Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint Picks

8. Goodnight Olive

11. Wicked Halo

6. Chain of Love

This race should have a hot pace with Hot Peppers, Lady Rocket and Echo Zulu all wanting the lead, so we’ll take a few horses that will stalk the predicted duel along with a mystery closer. Goodnight Olive sat behind a fast pace and powered home to win the Ballerina (G1) at Saratoga in her last, she loves the distance, she runs well fresh, she’s 5/6, her trainer Chad Brown is a pro and her jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. won two Breeders’ Cup races on Friday. And… she broke her maiden over this track. If she runs the way we think she will, she will be very tough to beat. Wicked Halo meets better here but she did look good winning the Raven Run (G2) over this surface and distance in her last, trainer Steve Asmussen has won his share of Breeders’ Cup races and jockey Tyler Gaffalione got his first Breeders’ Cup win in the Juvenile Fillies on Friday. Chain of Love is a sleeper from Japan who can close fast. She has some good hidden form and attracts the services of top European jockey William Buick, who has won six Breeders’ Cup races including Friday’s Juvenile Turf Sprint. Chain of Love finished a good fourth in the Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1) three starts ago and was beaten only a head for third behind Dr. Schivel, who finished second beaten by a nose in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint.

Longshots: 7. Obligatory 4. CeCe 3. Chi Town Lady 5. Frank’s Rockette. Bet your Breeders Cup predictions for FREE by scoring a 125% real cash bonus up to $400 when you use bonus promo code PREDICTEM when signing up and depositing at GTBets Sportsbook! They’ll also give you a free half point everytime you bet your favorite sports teams!

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Race 4 – Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint Picks

8. Golden Pal

1. Creative Force

4. Campanelle

Golden Pal will be heavily favoured to repeat in this race and he looks solid. As much as we’d like to play a European shipper to win, after studying the replays for hours we couldn’t find one. We’ll take a shot on Creative Force to get a nice inside trip under William Buick for trainer Charles Appleby, who teamed up to win the Juvenile Turf Sprint here on Friday. Anyone could finish second in this race including one of trainer Wesley Ward’s other entrants, Campanelle. Irad Ortiz, Jr. takes off that mount to ride Golden Pal, but it goes to Frankie Dettori, who is certainly as good as Irad in these big races. We would have liked to have used Casa Creed on the cut back in distance and drop in class for Hall of Fame Trainer Bill Mott, but can’t see how he can get there from Post 11. Cazadero rallied nicely from last to win the Nearctic Stakes (G2) but he drew an even worse post 13. Caravel is also a decent longshot for the exotics. He’s 7/11 at the distance and 1/1 at Keeneland.

Longshots: 3. Emaraaty Ana, 7. Arrest Me Red, 10 Caravel, 11. Casa Creed, 12. Bran, 13. Cazadero

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Race 5 – Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile Picks

7. Cody’s Wish

6. Laurel River

9. Cyberknife

Cody’s Wish has turned into a professional racehorse for trainer Bill Mott, winning his last three in a row and coming into this race off a lifetime best in the Forego (G1) at Saratoga. He’s coming into this race off a two-month layoff but can fire fresh and he’s 5/5 at the distance. Laurel River comes into this race off a similar layoff and a perfect trip win in the Pat O’Brien (G2) at Del Mar. He’s 2/2 at the distance for top trainer Bob Baffert and he should be the first to make a solid bid in the stretch. Cyberknife figures on class, having lost to Breeders’ Cup Classic entrants Taiba and Epicenter in his last two, but we’re wondering if he might be over the top. His best race gives him a shot at the win.

Longshots: 1. Slow Down Andy, 4. Law Professor

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Race 6 – Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf Picks

3. Nashwa

4. Above the Curve

5. Tuesday

11. In Italian

The first leg of the Pick 6 on Saturday. Nashwa is the logical choice on class and probably should have won her last start in the Prix de l’Opera Longines (G1) in France for trainer John Gosden, who has won five Breeders’ Cup races. Above the Curve finished a nose behind Nashwa in the Prix de l’Opera and gets the services of Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez, as jockey Ryan Moore moves to Tuesday, who also comes out of the Prix de l’Opera, where she finished sixth. The latter may be better on firm turf, and even if it rains on Saturday, the turf should be firmer than what’s she’s been running over. The top three are the class of the race, while In Italian looks like the speed of the speed and will try to clear early and steal the race under jockey Joel Rosario for trainer Chad Brown.

Longshots: 1. Lady Speightspeare, 9. Rougir, 12. Moira

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Race 7 – Qatar Racing Breeders’ Cup Sprint Picks

9. Jackie’s Warrior

6. Elite Power

5. Aloha West

Last year Jackie’s Warrior dueled through suicidal fractions as the heavy favourite in this race and justifiably tired, with Aloha West rallying to pick up the pieces. We don’t see that happening this year. Jackie’s Warrior should get a reasonably clear lead by himself, slow the pace down and have lots left for the ralliers. Elite Power has won four in a row for trainer Bill Mott and comes into this race in great form off a win in the Vosburgh (G2) at Aqueduct. He also gets Irad Ortiz, Jr. for the first time, and he might just give Jackie’s Warrior all he can handle in the stretch. All systems go. Aloha West should rally for a share, but would need an all-out duel to win, and that doesn’t appear likely this year.

Longshots: 2. Kimari, 3. O Besos, 4. American Theorem

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Race 8 – FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile Picks

4. Modern Games

14. Domestic Spending

13. Kinross

3. Dreamloper

Modern Games looked dynamite winning the Woodbine Mile (G1) two starts ago and came back to finish second in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (G1) at Ascot. The horses he faced in his last start were better than these and his trainer Charles Appleby is 6-for-11 at the Breeders’ Cup. Domestic Spending is an exceptionally good horse coming off a long layoff for trainer Chad Brown. He’d probably like more distance, but if he’s ready to roll he can make the win photo here. Kinross has won four in a row and is clearly one of the best horses in Europe going seven furlongs, if not the best. He stretches out to a mile here and there’s a chance he could outclass these late under Frankie Dettori if he takes to the added furlong. Dreamloper won the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp (Gr. 1) in France in her last outing, she has a quick turn of foot and she looks like she’s rounding into form beautifully.

Longshots: 6. Ivar, 5. Smooth Like Straight, 10, Order of Australia, 11. Annapolis

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Race 9 – Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff Picks

1. Malathaat

6. Nest

4. Clairiere

8. Society

Malathaat finished a good closing third beaten only half a length in this race last year and she’s coming into this year’s rendition off two nice wins, the last in the Spinster (G1) at this track and distance under Hall of Famer John Velasquez. She’ll need her best to defeat stablemate Nest, who comes into this race off three straight wins including a 9 ¾-length romp in the Beldame (G2) at Aqueduct in her last under the only jockey who has ever ridden her, Irad Ortiz, Jr. This could turn into a real battle down the stretch, unless Society opens up early, sets a slow pace and steals it. We think she’ll get just enough pressure to set it up for the top two, with Clairiere also rallying late, and she has defeated Malathaat in two of her last three starts.

Longshot: Blue Stripe

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Race 10 – Longines Breeders Cup Turf Picks

7. Nations Pride

4. Broome

11. Mishriff

2. War Like Goddess

5. Rebel’s Romance

Trainer Charles Appleby holds a hot hand in this race with Nations Pride and Rebel’s Romance. The former has won his last two starts in North America including the Jockey Club Derby Invitational (G3) at Aqueduct in his last, but he has a quicker turn of foot than his stablemate and that might make all the difference when the running starts. Rebel’s Romance has won his last three starts including two Group 1 races in Germany, but jockey William Buick, who was on Rebel’s Romance for his last win, moves over to Nations Pride for this race. Broome finished a strong second to Yibir (trained by Appleby) in this race last year under jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. and he could run another big race this year. Broome comes into this race off an eighth-place finish in the Prix l’Arc de Triomphe over a deep, boggy course, as does Mishriff, who finished thirteenth in the same race. A classy multiple Group 1 winner, Mishriff gets blinkers on and Frankie Dettori, and he could be ready for a wake-up. On his best day, he’s good enough to win this. War Like Goddess will get a class test here despite winning three of her last four including the Turf Classic (G1) going this distance on the turf at Aqueduct. She’s 2/2 over the Keeneland turf course and top trainer Bill Mott and jockey Joel Rosario will give her every shot to win. The question is whether her best race is good enough.

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Race 11 – Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic Picks

4. Flightline

6. Epicenter

5. Taiba

5. Hot Rod Charlie

2. Life Is Good

The final leg of Saturday’s Pick 6 is the race everyone has been waiting for, the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic and the Secretariat crowning of undefeated #4 Flightline, whose last race was fast enough to win every Breeders’ Cup Classic ever run. But Flightline is facing better horses than he’s ever faced before here and this bunch won’t stop in their tracks like the rivals he’s been romping away from so far. He’s going to have to get by Life Is Good and then hold off the closers, and that won’t be easy, unless he really is another Secretariat.

Life is Good sizzled on the front end to win the Breeders’ Cup Mile last year and he’s likely going to be in front again here. He doesn’t really look like he wants to go the 1 ¼-miles of the Classic, but you never know. If he does take a round out of Flightline, Hot Rod Charlie, Epicenter and Taiba will be ready to pounce. Hot Rod Charlie will make his usual solid bid, but Epicenter and Taiba look to be the two most probable winners if Flightline falters. And if an all-out battle develops turning in the stretch, maybe Rich Strike will come flying late and nail them all. He did seem to wake up in his last.

We’ll take Flightline on top but will also have another ticket with All in this race, just in case.

Good Luck!