Breeders’ Cup Picks and Analysis for Saturday, November 2, 2024

Are you ready! Today is Breeders’ Cup Saturday and money will be flying everywhere, hopefully into our pockets. There are some very tricky races today, but we think we’ve got them figured out as good as anyone, with a few longshots and a few potential keys in the multi-race wagers. And don’t forget to put the “Forgotten Euros” on some of your tickets!

Go get ’em!

Race 4 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint Picks

1. Ways and Means
2. Frost at Dawn
3. Pleasant
4. Society

Longshots: Soul of an Angel, Scylla

Morning-line favorite Ways and Means is clearly the horse to beat. One Magic Philly is 2-for-2 at Del Mar and looks like another dangerous horse at a price for trainer Phil D’ Amato. Pleasant is a talented Bob Baffert trainee moving up in class, but she did coast home in her latest victory and will probably improve again. Baffert ran first, second, and fourth in the Juvenile on Friday, and this horse will likely be primed and ready, too. Frost At Dawn looks like a live longshot switching from turf to dirt with a dirt pedigree, a sharp trainer, and some hidden European class. She also gets a switch to top jockey Frankie Dettori. Society has the numbers to win this if she can get an unfettered trip on or near the lead, but we think she could have company from either One Magic Filly or Pleasant, which would set the race up for Ways and Means. Scylla has top trainer Bill Mott in her corner and could rally to finish in the Superfecta. Soul of an Angel likely needs a fast-contested pace to win this, but she could also make it into the Superfecta with a perfect trip.

Race 5 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint Picks

1. Star of Mystery
2. Bradsell
3. Cogburn
4. Motorious

Longshots: Believing, Starlust, Ag Bullet, Big Invasion, Big Evs

Star of Mystery goes for the top Breeders’ Cup team of trainer, Charlie Appleby and William Buick. He also had trouble in his last race and would have won. He would not be a surprise winner at a nice price and this race might just set up perfectly for him. European Bradsell has both class and talent, but he’ll have to overcome the widest post at a short price. Morning-line favorite Cogburn can win the sprint but he’ll have to overcome a tough post.

Motorious is 3-for-3 over the Del Mar turf and yet another Phil D’Amato trainee with a chance from a good inside post. His best race is good enough and he had a terrible trip when finishing fifth, beaten only 1 ½-lengths in this race last year. European Believing is a classy European filly who could also surprise based on both her company lines and her inside post. She’s finished a close second twice and third once behind Bradsell in her last three starts, all Group 1 races going today’s distance, and top jockey Ryan Moore is back in the saddle today. She also fits the” Forgotten Euro” angle. Big Invasion gets a rider switch to Frankie Dettori and may have been pointed for this race. He’s a must-use in multi-race wagers at a nice price. Ag Bullet and Big Evs have chances that reflect their morning line odds in a very tough race, but they are not impossible. Starlust is another who fits the Forgotten Euro angle. He had severe trouble in his last race behind Bradsell and Believing, but his very best race puts him in the photo with these at a huge price. Two starts ago he was beaten only a head by Believing and ¾-lengths behind Bradsell, finishing third in the Group 1 Nunthorpe at today’s distance.

Race 6 Breeders’ Cup Distaff Picks

1. Thorpedo Anna
2. Raging Sea
3. Candied
4. Awesome Result

Thorpedo Anna will be one of the most favoured horses in the Breeders’ Cup, and she could very well win, but she does come into this off two tough races. Is she vulnerable? If so, Raging Sea has a chance at the upset but will need some pace to run at. Candied could be a live longshot with blinkers on and a rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr. Japanese runner Awesome Result is 7-for-7 and now steps up in class. She’s a mystery horse with a strong dirt pedigree and is worth using if you’re looking beyond Thorpedo Anna in this race.

Race 7 Breeders’ Cup Turf Picks

1. Rebel’s Romance
2. Shahryar
3. Jayarebe
4. Emily Upjohn

Longshots: Luxembourg, Wingspan, Far Bridge

Morning-line favorite Rebel’s Romance is a logical choice who would not be a surprise for top connections Charles Appleby and William Buick. Longshot Japanese runner Shahryar had trouble in this race last year and finished third beaten 1¼-lengths to one of the best horses in the world, Auguste Rodin. With a clean trip, he’s the horse to beat. . Jayarebe is an improving 3-year-old with a nice form who always gives his best. Two starts ago he finished second beaten only two lengths by European star Economics in a Group 2 in France. Emily Upjohn has lost to Rebel’s Romance in the past but is capable with a good trip and the rider switch to Frankie Dettori, who won two Group 1 races on her in 2023, will help her. Far Bridge can finish fast and has to be used off two Grade 1 wins in a row, but he is another that will need a perfect trip. Wingspan fits the “Forgotten Euro” angle as do Luxembourg fits the same angle, also at a nice price, with jockey Ryan Moore and trainer Aiden O’Brien

Race 8 Breeders’ Cup Classic Picks

1. City of Troy
2. Forever Young
3. Newgate
4. Fierceness

Longshots: ALL

The Classic may just be the toughest race in the Breeders’ Cup this year. We’ll use City of Troy and Forever Young on our main multi-race tickets but will also have a few tickets with ALL on them.

City of Troy looks like the best horse for top connections, but will he handle the switch from turf to dirt? He doesn’t need the lead, but he can win on the lead, as he finds more in his races when other horses come to him. The team of Ryan Moore and Aidan O’Brien think he can win, and it’s hard to argue with their success rate at the Breeders’ Cup, but the Classic is one race that has escaped them. City of Troy is also quite likely the fittest horse in the race, and he’s 6-for-7 lifetime. Must use.

Of the three Japanese runners in the Classic — Forever Young, Derma Sotogake (Blinkers On today), and Ushba Tesoro — we’ll focus mainly on Forever Young, knowing the other two could make the photo with their very best races. Forever Young has proven himself a tough International horse against top competition, and he probably would have won the Kentucky Derby this spring without trouble. Newgate (Blinkers On today) could be dangerous as a fresh horse at a big price for trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Frankie Dettori. Sierra Leone will be the pick of many, but he just never seems to get there. He’ll need a strong pace to close into at a less than enticing price. Fierceness is an in-and-outer with enough talent to win, but will he show up? He has to be used on your spread tickets. Tapit Trice is another horse that needs to show up with his best race, which may or may not be good enough to win this. Next has been winning easily over marathon horses and now gets a severe class and talent test. If you can find a horse to single confidently here, lucky you. If City of Troy shows up, he’s best.

Race 9 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf Picks

1. Cinderella’s Dream
2. War Like Goddess
3. Moira
4. Anisette

Longshots: Full Count Felicia, Hang the Moon, Content, Soprano

Cinderella’s Dream will probably be our best single of the day based on class, talent, and connections. If she doesn’t fire, War Like Goddess looks like a solid second choice, but she is definitely beatable. Moira has competitive numbers and will rally late. Anisette will love the distance. Hang the Moon is in good form for trainer Phil D’Amato. Content is off form and will likely go off at much longer odds than her 6-1 morning line. In that case, she fits the “Forgotten Euro” angle for top connections Aidan O’Brien and Frankie Dettori. Soprano is another Forgotten Euro who could finish in the Superfecta. And finally, what about lone speeder Full Count Felicia, who opened up by 19 lengths in the EP Taylor at Woodbine in her last race and held on to win? Seems like a must-use longshot flyer. She also gets a rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr. Catch me if you can!

Race 10 Breeders’ Cup Sprint Picks

1. Nakatomi
2. Don Frankie
3. Mullikin
4. Raging Torrent

Longshots: Gun Pilot, Meta Max

The Sprint appears to be loaded with speed this year, and we’ll be keeping it simple by playing primarily closers, including Nakatomi and longshot flyer Don Frankie. Mullikin can stay close to the speed and pounce, but can he hold off the closers late? Raging Torrent has a shot at a price, and if you go deep in this race, make sure to include Gun Pilot simply on running style and Japanese runner Meta Max. Very tough race to narrow down a solid selection.

Race 11 Breeders’ Cup Mile Picks

1. Notable Speech
2. Carl Spackler
3. Ramatuelle
4. Porta Fortuna

Longshots: Goliad, Diego Velazquez

Notable Speech looks like the classiest horse in the Mile and has top connections William Buick and Charles Appleby in his corner. He might even be a key for some. Carl Spackler comes to play every race but has to overcome wide post 12. European filly Ramatuelle has enough class to win the Mile and could get a great trip from Post 1. Porta Fortuna is also capable of winning this on her best day, but she will likely be an underlay off three wins in a row. Goliad is a potential lone speed play with Carl Spackler marooned out wide, and could prove tough to catch if he opens a lonely lead. Diego Velazquez comes into the Mile off Group 3, and Group 2 wins in Ireland. He could give a good account of himself with the right kind of trip.

Race 12 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile Picks

1. Mufasa
2. Domestic Product
3. Post Time
4. Muth

We’ll probably take a chance on longshot Mufasa in the Dirt Mile and hope he gets a perfect trip. There appears to be quite a bit of speed in the race, and it could set up for a horse from just off the pace. Domestic Product is a logical play coming into the race in good form. Post Time looks like an interesting longshot who will be underbet, but he would also need a dream trip. Interestingly, Irad Ortiz, Jr. takes off Mufasa to ride Skippylongstocking, who drew the widest post. The mystery horse in the field is Muth, who is trained by Bob Baffert. He’s run two or three races in his career that are good enough to win this, but in his last start he was beaten over 15 lengths. Which Muth will show up?

Good Luck!