2025 Tampa Bay Derby Predictions: Hill Road to Win

Tampa Bay Downs, Race 11 | Saturday, March 8, 2025
Grade 3 | Purse: $400,000 | 1 1/16 Miles | Dirt | 3-Year-Olds
Kentucky Derby Points: 50-25-15-10-5

Tampa Bay Derby Picks

• #3 Hill Road (4-1)
• #1 Owen Almighty (5-1)
• #7 Patch Adams (2-1)
• #2 Chancer McPatrick (8-5)

Flyer Superfecta Longshot #5 Filoso

Tampa Bay Derby Analysis

Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby presents a fascinating clash between emerging talents. The 1 1/16-mile contest has drawn a compact but quality field of seven 3-year-olds, with multiple storylines converging in this pivotal Kentucky Derby prep. Two-time Grade 1 winner Chancer McPatrick makes his much-anticipated 3-year-old debut with blinkers added, while Breeders’ Cup Juvenile third-place finisher Hill Road returns for new trainer Chad Brown. The intriguing local hope Owen Almighty brings proven speed and Tampa form, and the highly regarded Patch Adams seeks redemption after a somewhat disappointing effort in the Southwest Stakes.

#3 Hill Road (4-1) offers compelling value and has been expertly prepared by Chad Brown since transferring to his barn after a surprising third-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. That effort was exceptional considering he shipped from Europe after only two turf starts and rallied strongly to finish behind Citizen Bull and Gaming. He didn’t really get rolling until very late in that race after trailing to the final turn, but he should be closer against these horses, and he now has a dirt race under his belt. His pedigree (by Quality Road out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare) suggests he’ll excel with added distance, and his natural closing style suits what should be a contested pace scenario. Brown adds blinkers, which should help keep him focused, and his steady series of works signals readiness for his 3-year-old debut. This Quality Road colt seems poised to take a major step forward while flying somewhat under the radar alongside his more celebrated stablemate. And his odds should be decent.

#1 Owen Almighty (5-1) brings the critical home-track advantage after two solid efforts over the Tampa surface. His second-place finish in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, when he pressed the pace throughout before falling a half-length short to John Hancock, demonstrates his compatibility with this track and distance. He gave it everything he had in that race, so we know he’s a tryer, and his speed makes him even more dangerous. The son of Speightstown possesses tactical speed that should allow top jock Irad Ortiz, Jr. to secure an advantageous position from the rail. His connections have indicated he’s not Kentucky Derby bound, and that makes him even more dangerous in this spot, as they’ll be fully committed to winning here rather than using it as a stepping stone.

#2 Chancer McPatrick (8-5) commands respect as a two-time Grade 1 winner at two, capturing the Hopeful and Champagne Stakes with impressive late runs. His disappointing sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and his tendency to drop back early raises questions, but the son of McKinzie returns with blinkers added, and that could put him closer early. The pace wasn’t fast in the Juvenile and it takes him time to get rolling, so he was disadvantaged in that race. And this race also represents a significant class drop. His workout pattern indicates fitness, but his deep-closing style could be compromised if the pace isn’t heated enough. If the equipment change proves effective, his class and closing kick make him formidable, but at short odds, we’d rather play his stablemate Hill Road.

#7 Patch Adams (2-1) enters with considerable potential after a somewhat disappointing fourth-place effort in the Southwest Stakes after bobbling a bit at the start. Before that, he delivered a dazzling 10 1/2-length maiden win at Churchill Downs that produced a field-best Beyer Speed Figure of 98. That figure towers over his competitors, and trainer Brad Cox excels with developing 3-year-olds. This son of Into Mischief should secure a favorable stalking position under the rider switch back to Florent Geroux, who won on him two starts ago. His Southwest rider Flavien Prat moves to Chancer McPatrick. He is a tryer, but at short odds we’d rather play a horse that might have more upside at a better price. Not out of the question for the exacta.

#4 Brodeur (15-1) has won his last two starts, most recently a 1 1/16-mile allowance at Oaklawn Park. The son of Nyquist has natural early speed that could make him a pace factor. He gives you the impression he wants to win and he does have solid early speed, but he’ll probably face serious pace pressure from Owen Almighty and Irad Ortiz, Jr. It really looks like those two will be dueling in this race for at least six furlongs, which wouldn’t bode well for either one of them.

#6 Naughty Rascal (20-1) has longshot potential for local connections based on the pace scenario, but in his last race, the Sam F. Davis, he had no horse after tracking a battle between the two favorites from the outside to late on the final turn. He did make a move on them, but when unable to keep going with them into the stretch he gave up the ghost to finish sixth beaten 13 lengths. He had previously been elevated to first in the Pasco Stakes after Owen Almighty’s disqualification, but was well back of that horse in the Sam F. Davis. Samy Camacho, who memorably won this race in 2020 aboard 49-1 longshot King Guillermo, is aboard today. At huge odds, he’s worth including in the bottom rungs of your superfectas.

#5 Filoso (15-1) returns from a lengthy layoff after a disappointing sixth in the Kentucky Jockey Club last November. He looked good breaking his maiden at Saratoga going a mile in his second lifetime start, and then came back to finish third in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland and sixth in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs, while appearing to race greenly in both those races. He does have a bit of hidden talent, and if he has improved and matured as a 3-year-old, he actually could rally into the superfecta as a longshot. The addition of blinkers might help him and stop him from dropping too far back early, as he did in his last two races.

Pace Scenario

Expect Brodeur and Owen Almighty to establish the early pace, with Naughty Rascal and potentially Patch Adams sitting close. Chancer McPatrick and Hill Road will be rallying from farther back, though both could position themselves closer with the addition of blinkers. The pace projects as honest but not suicidal, favoring horses with tactical positioning. If one of the two speed horses clears to the led and sets a slow pace, they could go a long way. On paper neither looks like they will get loose, but stranger things have happened.

Value Assessment

Hill Road represents the best combination of ability and value at his 4-1 morning line. His impressive Breeders’ Cup Juvenile effort against top company and steady preparation by Chad Brown suggests he’s sitting on a big effort, and we really liked the way he finished late in that race. Owen Almighty also offers solid value at 5-1 given his proven affinity for Tampa’s surface, his tactical speed and top jock Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the saddle. At likely short prices, both Chancer McPatrick and Patch Adams appear slightly underlaid, though each possesses the raw talent to justify their odds.

The home track advantage for Owen Almighty cannot be underestimated at Tampa Bay Downs, and while favorites Chancer McPatrick and Patch Adams bring impressive credentials, both face meaningful questions they must answer to justify their short prices.

If the track maintains its typical profile, tactical speed should be advantageous, benefiting Owen Almighty and potentially setting the stage for Hill Road to deliver a perfectly timed rally. Watch the tote board carefully – significant support for Hill Road would further validate his chances, while any drift in Chancer McPatrick’s price could signal concerns about his readiness.

We’ll play Hill Road to win and place, and use him in the exactas over Owen Almighty, Chancer McPatrick and Patch Adams. We’ll also play Hill Road first and second in our trifectas and superfectas with those three horses and take ALL in the third and fourth legs.

Good Luck!