Coal Battle logical in Smarty Jones, Mo Quality could outrun odds
Smarty Jones Stakes Picks and Analysis
Race 9, Oaklawn Park, Saturday, January 4, 2025
1 1/16 Miles | Purse: $250,000 | Kentucky Derby Points: 10-5-3-2-1
Smarty Jones Stakes Picks
- #8 Coal Battle (9/2)
- #6 Hot Property (8/5)
- #1 Kale’s Angel (2-1)
Smarty Jones Stakes Longshots
- #5 Mo Quality (5-1)
- #3 Optical (12-1)
Smarty Jones Stakes Analysis
Opening the Kentucky Derby prep season at Oaklawn Park, the Smarty Jones Stakes brings together an exciting mix of established stakes performers and emerging talent. The 1 1/16-mile test drew a field of eight newly-turned three-year-olds seeking qualifying points toward the Run for the Roses.
Coal Battle brings a perfect 3-for-3 record on dirt into his Oaklawn debut, most recently capturing the Remington Springboard Mile with an impressive late rally. The son of Coal Front has shown remarkable development for trainer Lonnie Briley, improving his Beyer Speed Figures with each start while demonstrating an affinity for two-turn racing. His tactical style should play well in a race that projects to have honest fractions, and jockey Vargas has been aboard him for all three of his victories.
Hot Property emerges as a leading contender from the powerhouse Brad Cox stable with jockey Flavien Prat in to ride. Prat and Cox teamed up to win this race in 2023 with Victory Information. The son of Medaglia d’Oro was an impressive debut winner at Fair Grounds in his only lifetime start on November 24, showing both tactical speed and stamina while prevailing by 3 ¾-lengths at this distance. While he’ll need to improve his speed figures to contend with the top selection, his running style and connections suggest more development is forthcoming.
BET ON HORSES
(Use Your Credit Card)
Win, place, and show, exactas, trifectas, superfectas and more! Plus grab a 50% deposit bonus!
Kale’s Angel merits consideration after a dominant 5 3/4-length romp in the local Advent Stakes, earning the field’s top last-out Beyer Speed Figure. The Peter Miller trainee faces two key questions—stretching out from 5 ½-furlongs and carrying his speed against stronger competition. His pedigree suggests the added ground is within reach, and Miller wins at an 11 percent clip with sprint-to-route moves. The rail draw should allow jockey Ramon Vazquez to establish favorable early position, and he could steal it if he gets loose early and slows down the pace.
Mo Quality represents an improving contender making his stakes and two-turn debut. The Chris Davis trainee took a solid step forward and was visually impressive when graduating at Churchill Downs going six furlongs on November 24, and his pedigree suggests the added distance will suit. Junior Alvarado retains the mount on a colt who could be poised for another forward move.
The race projects to feature honest fractions with Kale’s Angel likely to show speed from the rail and Hot Property possessing natural early foot. Mo Quality and Hot Gunner could also be forwardly placed, potentially creating a favorable setup for mid-pack runners like Coal Battle.
We’ll be hoping for a pace battle on the turn to set the race up for Coal Battle, and we’ll play him to win, but we’ll also place a smaller win bet on Mo Quality and box those two in the exacta. We’ll also play Coal Battle over Hot Property and Kale’s Angel, and take a few smaller exactas with Mo Quality over those two.
We don’t expect to make a huge profit on this race, but it should be decent if we hit it just right, especially if Coal Battle and Mo Quality can run 1-2.
Go get ‘em!