John Hancock Eyes Perfect Record in 2025 Louisiana Derby (G2) | Race Picks & Analysis

2025 Louisiana Derby (G2) Picks and Analysis

Fair Grounds, Race 12, Saturday, March 22, 2025

Purse: $1,000,000 Surface: Dirt Distance: 1 3/16-Miles Post Time: 5:42 p.m. CT

Kentucky Derby Points: 100-50-25-15-10

Louisiana Derby Picks

• John Hancock
• Caldera
• Built
• Chunk of Gold

Louisiana Derby Longshots

Vassimo, Hypnus

Louisiana Derby Analysis

Undefeated speedster John Hancock will try to stretch his perfect record to 3-for-3 as he faces his toughest challenge yet in Saturday’s Louisiana Derby. After an impressive front-running victory in the Sam F. Davis Stakes in just his second career start, he’ll now see if he can take his big heart to the next level on the Triple Crown trail.

In the Sam F. Davis, John Hancock showed grit after being headed by Owen Almighty in the stretch, fighting back to secure victory. That form has since been flattered, as Owen Almighty returned to capture the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) in his start.

While the speed-favoring Tampa surface certainly played to his strengths, John Hancock demonstrated rating ability early before unleashing his speed when needed. Drawing the rail for the Louisiana Derby, the Constitution colt should have little trouble establishing position under top jockey Flavien Prat.

His pedigree suggests the added distance won’t be an issue, as he’s a half-brother to Ashland Stakes (G1) winner Speech. It’s also worth noting that Constitution sired last year’s Louisiana Derby winner, Catching Freedom – and Prat was aboard for that victory too.

At 1 3/16-miles, the Louisiana Derby stands is the longest of all North American Kentucky Derby qualifying races, providing a serious stamina test for Triple Crown hopefuls. The race carries significant weight with 100-50-25-15-10 Kentucky Derby qualifying points distributed to the top five finishers.

Caldera is an intriguing entrant for Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas following a game nose defeat in the Sunland Derby. He was five-wide into the first turn in the Sunland Derby, remained wide throughout, and made an impressive move on the final turn to take command from Getaway Card before being headed by that one in mid-stretch, but was coming back again at the wire and missed by the slimmest of margins.

While Getaway Card disappointed in his next start in the Virginia Derby, the winner of that race was American Promise – another Lukas trainee. If there’s one thing Lukas excels at, it’s getting a horse fit for a peak performance. A repeat of his Sunland Derby effort would make Caldera a win contender here.

Built might be flying under the radar despite solid credentials. Three starts back, he captured the Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds with a wire-to-wire performance. He followed that with a grinding stretch effort to seize the lead late in the Lecomte Stakes (G3), only to be caught in the final strides by rallying favorite Disco Time.

In his most recent outing, Built tracked from the outside and made a run at lone speed Magnitude in the Risen Star, but that one skipped away from the field at 43-1. Built tired late to finish third, a head behind fellow Louisiana Derby entrant Chunk of Gold. Notably, jockey Jose Ortiz likely had several options for this race and chose Built over Tiztastic and Furio. The addition of blinkers could also stimulate a big effort.

Chunk of Gold put in a solid performance in the Risen Star Stakes (G2), finishing second behind runaway lone speed Magnitude, and passing proven stakes performer Built late. The 92 Beyer Speed Figure earned in that effort stamps him as a contender here with a likely better pace scenario this time around.

Tiztastic comes in off a fifth-place finish in the Rebel Stakes (G2) against tough competitor Coal Battle after running third in the Southwest Stakes (G3). While he’ll certainly make a late run, he hasn’t shown the explosive stretch kick needed to win at this level. A minor award may be his ceiling, but top jockey Joel Rosario takes the mount for the first time, which gives his chances a boost.

Yinzer steps up dramatically after breaking his maiden at Fair Grounds going 1 1/16 miles last time out. Although he’s shown early speed in recent starts, he did display off-the-pace ability earlier in his career. The class raise might be too steep here against more seasoned stakes competitors, particularly with John Hancock likely controlling the early tempo.

Vassimo looked impressive winning his first two career starts at Gulfstream Park and Tampa Bay Downs before fading in his stakes debut when tracking loose leader Magnitude from the inside in the Risen Star. His effort was odd, in that he dropped back between horses on the final turn looking like he might continue backing up, but jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. got him motivated, shifted him outside for the stretch run, and rallied decently to finish fourth. The performance suggested inexperience rather than lack of ability. With Ortiz staying aboard, the addition of blinkers, and competitive Beyer figures, Vassimo represents a live longshot for exotic wagers.

Furio has shown early speed in all three lifetime starts but appears overmatched against this caliber of competition. While he might contest the early pace briefly, he seems unlikely to maintain that position past the final turn.

Instant Replay enters off a dominant allowance victory over Furio going 1 1/16-miles, and the 92 Beyer Figure he earned in that race ranks with the top numbers in this field. Trainer Brad Cox wins at an impressive 30% clip with horses making their second start off a 30-60 day layoff and maintains a 28% win rate with jockey Florent Geroux, who has been aboard for all five of the colt’s career starts. He could get a piece of the superfecta with his best race, but we still like others better.

Hypnus broke his maiden impressively first time out at Fair Grounds going 1 1/16 miles in sloppy conditions before finishing seventh, beaten seven lengths, in the Rebel Stakes (G2) with a better-than-it-looked effort. He saved ground in that race but had to wait mildly on the final turn, and had uncomfortable trouble between horses in early stretch. He finally made up ground late when moved to the outside.

With just two lifetime starts, this Into Mischief colt out of Starlet Stakes (G1) winner Dream Tree appears to have some upside. His relative inexperience might be offset by his raw talent, making him an intriguing longshot for exotic wagers.

The play is John Hancock to wire the field with Flavien Prat in the irons. We’ll bet him win-place and use him at the top and bottom of exactas with Caldera, Built, Vassimo, and Hypnus. For trifectas and superfectas, we’ll wheel him first and second with those horses and ALL in the third and fourth positions.

Go Johnny Go!