Arkansas Derby Picks: Coal Battle vs. Cornucopian & Expert Analysis

Arkansas Derby (G1) | Oaklawn Park, Race 13 | Saturday, March 29, 2025

Purse: $1.5 million | Distance: 1 1/8 Miles | Surface: Dirt

Post Time: 6:48 p.m. CT | Kentucky Derby Points: 100–50–25–15–10

Arkansas Derby Picks

1. Coal Battle
2. Cornucopian
3. Sandman

Arkansas Derby Longshots

Publisher, Bestfriend Rocket, First Division

Arkansas Derby Analysis

On paper, the Arkansas Derby looks like a two-horse race between meat-and-potatoes get-the-job-done Coal Battle and sizzling blueblood maiden breaker Cornucopian. Coal Battle has won four stakes in a row while receiving little respect from the bettors, except for us! In his last three starts, he’s been sent off at odds of 7-1, 4-1, 12-1. We cashed big on him when he won the Rebel Stakes (G2) in his last start and we’re sticking with him, as we have in his last three.

Cornucopian is a Bob Baffert-trained apparent monster who just broke his maiden at Oaklawn Park, going six furlongs and earning by far the top Beyer Speed Figure in the field with a 101. The $1.1 million colt is loaded with talent and does have a stamina pedigree, but can he stretch out to 1 1/8-miles and handle this major class raise? And will he rate? He wired his field in his only start but now faces a few other proven speed horses. Still, especially if the track is favoring speed, he could open up early and run away from the field at a short price.

Knowing all the above, we’re still going to stick with Coal Battle and hope that Cornucopian has issues up front. Cornucopian just has too many questions to answer at a terribly short price. We’re hoping the bettors pound him at the windows, which will drive up the odds on Coal Battle.

Below is our horse-by-horse analysis.

Brereton’s Baytown is the longest shot on the board for good reason. He’s winless in stakes company and exits an eighth-place finish in the Rebel Stakes, where he trailed by over 20 lengths early and merely passed tired horses late. His top Beyer Speed Figures don’t stack up against the big figs some of his rivals have posted. A win here would be shocking, and while he could pick up a minor check in a pace meltdown, he’s best left off serious tickets.

First Division is the kind of horse that doesn’t look flashy on paper but might be sitting on a breakout. He’s by 2019 Arkansas Derby winner Omaha Beach and has shown steady improvement in three local starts. Most recently, he ran a game second to Bestfriend Rocket in a $200,000 allowance race at Oaklawn Park, recovering from a poor start and finishing strongly. He still needs to jump forward on speed figures to contend, but a career-best effort could get him into the trifecta.

Publisher is still a maiden, which might scare off some bettors, but don’t let that fool you. This colt has back class. He’s hit the board in five of six starts and has quietly put together two solid efforts in Derby points preps at Oaklawn. He ran into traffic in the Rebel yet closed well to finish fourth, beaten just under four lengths. Blinkers go on, which suggests trainer Steve Asmussen is aiming for more focus early. With a clean trip and a step forward, Publisher has a chance to pull off a big upset or land underneath in exotics at a square price.

Bestfriend Rocket has a pedigree that screams stamina. By Curlin, out of a Noble Causeway mare, with Tapit further back. After two lackluster starts in New York, he thrived on the Maryland circuit last fall and won nicely in his first start for Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas at Oaklawn earlier this month. That race was visually solid, but the figures were modest. He’s trending the right way and could be sitting on another good effort, but he’ll need to improve substantially to keep up with the top-tier runners here.

Speed King shocked bettors with a front-running win in the Southwest Stakes at 14-1, but then flopped in the Rebel, fading to 10th after not making the lead. That regression raises questions: did he bounce, or was the pace scenario unfavorable? With Cornucopian in the field, there’s a high chance he’ll have company up front again. If he clears off, he could try to steal it, but more likely he gets hooked early and folds late. Pass unless the track is speed-favoring and he floats way up in price.

Sandman is one of the most reliable horses in the field. He’s yet to have his breakout win, but he’s been competitive in every start at Oaklawn and his best figures put him in the money here. He’s generally a deep closer by Tapit, who seems to relish more distance, and the extra sixteenth of a mile here could help. What’s concerning is the projected pace, it may not be fast enough for his late kick unless the leaders go crazy. Still, he’s a strong trifecta anchor and a viable win play if the odds are 4-1 or better.

Monet’s Magic has done some nice work at Oaklawn but looks a cut below the top contenders. He beat Holy Bull winner Burnham Square in a maiden last fall and has won twice around two turns, but his best speed figures are in the mid-80s. That said, he’s shown some grit in stretch duels and picks up Luan Machado, who just won the Jeff Ruby. He’s not impossible underneath, but a win would be surprising.

Coal Battle enters off back-to-back wins in the Smarty Jones and Rebel, and he’s done it in different ways, on the lead and from just off the pace. That versatility, along with his last race Beyer Speed Figure of 91, makes him a major threat. What’s interesting is that he doesn’t need the points. He’s already in the Derby field. So trainer Lonnie Briley may not have him fully cranked. Still, he’s 5-for-5 on dirt, handles the track, and owns the field’s best dirt form. He’s a must-use in every pool.

Cornucopian has just one start under his belt, but what a debut it was. The Into Mischief colt broke like a rocket in a six-furlong maiden sprint at Oaklawn, faced early pressure, and still drew away by nearly six lengths with a sparkling 1101 Beyer Speed Figure. He galloped out like a horse begging for two turns and is bred top and bottom to run all day. But this is a gigantic ask, nine furlongs, stakes company, a tougher pace, and second career start. He’s the most talented runner here but also the riskiest. You’ll need to decide if the price justifies the risk.

We’ll bet Coal Battle to win and place and box him in the exacta with Cornucopian, but we’re also going to wheel Coal Battle first and second in our trifectas and superfectas with ALL, and hope that Cornucopian fades. The main angle? Coal Battle knows where the wire is and loves to win. As do we.