2024 Malibu Stakes Preview & Analysis & Picks

Malibu Stakes Analysis

The Malibu Stakes (G1) highlights a fantastic opening day of racing on Thursday, December 26 at Santa Anita that features six stakes on an 11-race card.

Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan is the 5/2 morning line favourite in the Malibu, but he comes into the race off a six-month layoff so we’ll be taking a shot against him. While the return of a classic winner commands attention, several intriguing contenders could shake up the outcome, including Breeders’ Cup Sprint runner-up Bentornato and a trio of improving Bob Baffert trainees, most notably Imagination.

The pace scenario appears primed for fireworks. Bentornato and Raging Torrent seem destined for an early battle, with both showing consistent front-running tendencies. Breaking from the rail, Bentornato will likely be sent hard by Luis Saez to establish position on or near the lead, while Frankie Dettori aboard Raging Torrent will almost certainly send his front-end loving mount too. If either of these two get loose they could go all the way, so make sure to keep that in mind in your multi-race tickets.

On paper it looks like a duel between these two early, with Santa Anita Derby runner-up Imagination sitting just off the front runners. He’ll make his move in mid to late turn and these three should be gunning it into the lane. The projected pace battle should set the race up for our play in the race, Santa Anita Derby winner Stronghold, who has been listed at 8-1 on the morning line. He should probably be 5-1.

Stronghold hasn’t run since finishing second in the Pennsylvania Derby on September 21. Prior to that he was second in the Indiana Derby. With better trips he probably could have won both those races. He’s fresh, he’s been working well, and he’ll give you everything he has in the stretch with the right trip. He outdueled Imagination to win the Santa Anita Derby by a neck in April, and we could see a similar finish here.

The primary question surrounding Mystik Dan is his fitness following a six-month layoff. While trainer Ken McPeek has prepared him methodically at Fair Grounds, including a gate work to sharpen his speed, this salty field presents a stiff challenge for his return. His tactical speed should allow him to secure a reasonably good position behind the early leaders, but value will be hard to find at his likely odds. He’s also never run at Santa Anita. He does have a turn of foot that could make him a winner here if he handles the track and gets a dream trip, but he’ll need both to win this at a short price.

Of the longer prices, Winterfell enters following three consecutive wins against lesser on the East Coast. Now back with trainer Bob Baffert, his improving form and closing style could make him dangerous if the pace collapses. The lightly raced Pilot Commander showed promise when he finished second to the talented Muth in the San Vicente way back in January, and he could also be in the catbird seat behind the duelers and make a bid into the stretch. Senior Officer ships in from Churchill Downs after breaking his maiden and finishing second in a rich N1X allowance race. He could improve, but these are much tougher than what he’s been facing.

Both speed horses Bentornato and Raging Torrent have cracked the 100-Beyer mark, as has Mystik Dan, which is another reason those three horses will take a ton of money, but with Stronghold listed 8-1 and Imagination at 12-1, we’ll be looking for them to make us some money.

We’ll take Stronghold to win and place and use him over Bentornato, Raging Torrent, Imagination and Mystik Dan in the exacta, reversing the exactas for a smaller amount, and really hoping for a Stronghold–Imagination exacta.

Let’s cash some tickets!