Betting Against the Favorite: La Prevoyante Stakes Picks

LA PREVOYANTE STAKES PICKS AND ANALYSIS

Race 9, Woodbine, Saturday, December 14, 2024
1-1/16 MILES (Tapeta), Purse: $100,000

LA PREVOYANTE STAKES PICKS

1. No.6 Hurricane Clair

2. No.4 War Painter

3. No.5 Fashionably Fab

4. No.3 Tito’s Calling

LA PREVOYANTE STAKES ANALYSIS

The La Prevoyante Stakes on Saturday at Woodbine presents an intriguing opportunity to take a stand against morning-line even money favorite Fashionably Fab, who showed concerning signs in her recent Maple Leaf Stakes (G3) effort. While she holds a clear class edge based on Beyer figures and back class, there are reasons to be skeptical at a short price.

Fashionably Fab looked particularly vulnerable in late stretch last out, though she did move early in that longer race against better horses. The question becomes: was it the early move, the added distance, or potential regression that caused her to tire?

Hurricane Clair lost a heartbreaker to War Painter in the Ashbridges Bay in her last start after saving ground and making a determined run between rivals. The Martin Drexler trainee appears to be peaking at the right time and has leading rider Sahin Civaci in the saddle. Her career-best 81 Beyer was recorded on the turf, but we’re thinking she could be ready to improve on that number on the synthetic based on her most recent start, and Drexler, currently third in the trainer standings, knows how to win the big ones.

War Painter enters in peak form after a professional victory in the restricted Ashbridges Bay, where she showcased impressive acceleration late between horses despite racing wide throughout. Her 80 Beyer at the distance proves she belongs, and her tactical style should work well in a race lacking clear early speed. Second-leading trainer Kevin Attard has her razor sharp, and she gets a jockey switch to second-leading rider Rafael Hernandez.

Talk to Ya Later closed ground willingly in her latest, an allowance try at today’s distance, but couldn’t quite get to the winner, who got the jump on her into the stretch. A career-best 85 Beyer figure on the synthetic gives her a chance if she can find that number again.

Tito’s Calling merits consideration after finishing third in this race last year with an 85 Beyer. Her closing kick could prove potent if a pace battle develops. Forthfiveseventy had to work through traffic last time before finishing with interest, and while just a notch below these on the Beyer scale, she should be used underneath in the superfectas and trifectas.

While Fashionably Fab could easily dominate on class or go wire-to-wire against this bunch, her recent regression and short price make her worth betting against. War Painter and Hurricane Clair appear ready for peak efforts, with both showing the tactical ability to work out ideal trips and getting Woodbine’s top two riders.

We’ll bet both to win, box them in exactas, and play additional exactas with both over and under each other and Fashionably Fab. For insurance, we’ll also wheel them both up and down with all runners in $1 exactas.

Time to beat the chalk.