2024 Belmont Stakes Picks & Indepth Analysis
Sierra Leone the Logical Choice in 156th Belmont Stakes. One More Chance for Dornoch.
Event: Belmont Stakes Race 12, Saratoga Race Course, Saturday, June 8, 2024
Grade 1, Age: 3-Year-Olds, Distance: 1 1/4 Miles, Surface: Dirt, Purse: $2 MillionAn ultra-competitive field of 10 is set for the 156th running of the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga this Saturday and Kentucky Derby runner-up Sierra Leone (9/5) is the logical morning-line favorite. Oddly, the horse that beat Sierra Leone in the Kentucky Derby, Mystic Dan (5-1), isn’t even the second choice. That honor went to Mindframe (7/2). And Preakness Stakes winner Seize the Grey (8-1) would certainly have to be considered an overlay at those morning-line odds. Our favorite loser, Dornoch (15-1), is also back in the fray after two terrible trips in the Blue Grass (G1) and Kentucky Derby, and we’ll be using him one more time as a longshot, so let’s get to it!
Belmont Stakes Picks
- Sierra Leone
- Seize the Grey
- Mystik Dan
- Resilience
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Belmont Stakes Longshots
- Dornoch
- Honor Marie
- Antiquarian
Belmont Stakes Analysis
Seize the Grey’s (8-1) front-running victory in the Preakness Stakes might be better than it looks even though he was the lone speed. His race before that in the Pat Day Mile was much more impressive from a running style perspective when he dueled for the lead through fast fractions, dropped back on the final turn, and came charging home between horses for the win. His versatile running style should help him in the Belmont, as he may not get the lead by himself as he did in the Preakness. His works have been solid, including a 6-furlong move in 1:13, and trainer D. Wayne Lukas has won this race four times.
Resilience (10-1) skipped the Preakness to recharge after a commendable sixth in the Kentucky Derby, where he made a wide move in the stretch but couldn’t sustain it. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott is legitimately one of the best trainers in the world, and he didn’t get there on inflated numbers. Resilience has been working very well, he has a pedigree that leans towards stamina, and he could be ready for a peak effort for a trainer who won this race with Drosselmeyer in 2010. A contested pace would help set up his late run.
Mystik Dan (3-1) is trained by Ken McPeek, who pulled off a big upset in the Belmont Stakes with Sarava in 2002. Mystik Dan got a perfect inside trip under jockey Brian Hernandez to win the Kentucky Derby and came back to finish a good second behind lone speed Seize the Grey in the Preakness. He’ll be close to the pace again and should give a good account of himself when the running starts, if his last two races haven’t taken too much out of him.
The Wine Steward (15-1) has finished second, beaten less than a length in each of his last three races, the Breeders Futurity, the Lexington Stakes, and the Peter Pan. He brings heart to the table but never quite seems to have enough to get by the winner. In his last start, he was beaten by fellow Belmont entrant Antiquarian, but he’s making his third start off the layoff and could be ready to run one of his best races. He’s never won over a route of ground, but his sire won the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and jockey Manny Franco won this race in 2020. The price will be right.
Antiquarian (12-1) won the Peter Pan over The Wine Steward in his last start, and his trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Belmont Stakes four times. He’ll also be ridden by Hall of Famer John Velazquez, who has won the Belmont twice. He’s been working strongly and could still improve, but this is the toughest field he’s faced yet.
Dornoch (15-1) has had two brutal trips in a row in the Blue Grass and the Kentucky Derby from inside posts, and he now draws the middle slot six. Before those two disastrous races he’d looked excellent, especially last year when winning the Remsen Stakes (G2). Saez won the Belmont with Essential Quality in 2021, but he certainly didn’t give Dornoch anywhere close to a chance to win in his last two races. If he were on the outside, we’d give him more of a shot, as he could surely avoid trouble from a wide post, right? This horse can run, and we’ll be using him one more time as our best longshot, hoping Saez gets him a clean trip near the lead and gives him a chance to finally show what he can do. We’re not sure he’s good enough, but his last two races are in no way indicative of his talent.
Protective (20-1) is still a maiden, and we’re not sure why he’s been entered here by trainer Todd Pletcher. Maybe he knows something we don’t. Protective has run well against fellow Belmont runners Resilience, Antiquarian, and The Wine Steward, finishing third in both the Wood Memorial and the Peter Pan. Still, he never looked like he was going to win either one of those races. He does have the pedigree to handle the distance, and he has been working well, but…
Honor Marie (12-1) is a bit of a sleeper in here, trained by Whit Beckman, a former assistant to Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown. He had a tough trip in the Kentucky Derby, where he got shuffled back and had no room to run. He’s been working well and has a similar running style to favourite Sierra Leone. He’ll be coming from well back, but if he can get some pace to run at and the track isn’t totally favoring speed, he has a longshot chance.
Sierra Leone (9-5) lost the Kentucky by a nose after lugging in and bumping through the stretch. He gets an equipment change and a solid new rider change to Flavien Prat for the Belmont and is the most logical winner. And he might not even need a pace to run into. He’s two noses away from being undefeated in his five-race career, he’s already proven at the distance, and his workouts say he’s ready. All systems go.
Mindframe (7-2) is unbeaten in two starts and steps up in class after two impressive wins. His morning-line odds seem too low but he does have top jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the saddle and he might just be this good. His Beyer figures say he’s good enough, and Ortiz has won the Belmont Stakes twice, but it’s tough to win these kinds of races without being battle-hardened. If he improves again, he’s got a shot.
The race sets up with any number of horses on the lead, although we’re thinking Dornoch is going to send for sure. How else can Saez keep him out of trouble? Seize the Grey could also go early, as could The Wine Steward and Mind Frame, yet none of these horses actually need the lead to win. Still, they should be battling at some point, with Resilience, Mystik Dan, and Antiquarian right behind them. Protective, Honor Marie, and Sierra Leone will likely bring up the rear early and hope the second flight goes after the first flight on the turn for home.
The possibility of a bid battle in late turn and early stretch should set the race up for the three closers, but if the track is favoring speed their late runs could be compromised. There are times when ralliers just can’t gain ground in the stretch at Saratoga, no matter what the pace scenario is.
If the track is playing fair, we’ll be betting Sierra Leone to win and place if we can get 5/2 or better, and we’ll also wheel him top and bottom in the exactas. We’ll also be taking what could be our final shot on Dornoch at a big price with a smaller win-place bet and an exactor wheel up and down with all.
Saratoga is the Graveyard of Favourites, right?