2009 Breeders’ Cup Picks and Analysis for Friday, November 6 Races at Santa Anita
by Kenneth Strong of Predictem.com
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Breeder’s Cup picks are always tough. There’s always a huge longshot somewhere in the mix to mess us up.
We’re trying a few different angles this year and one of them will be the medication angle, at least when looking for longshots. With the stiffer medication rules and processes in place some of the trainers who
normally rack up big numbers can’t cut it on Breeders’ Cup Day. So we downgraded a few of their horses and upgraded the chances of a few of the Europeans, who normally run without medication but who can now use Lasix etc. Will it
work? Who knows. But we’ll be hoping! Especially for a monster longshot!
2009 Breeders’ Cup Marathon Picks and Analysis for Race 3, Santa Anita
1. Mastery 2. Father Time 3. Nite Light 4. Longshots – Everyone Else – This could be an ALL race on your multi-race wagers.
Mastery is the class of the field. If he runs his race he wins. He won the St. Leger Stakes going a mile and 13/16ths, he gets Lasix and top jock Dettori and he has hot trainer bin Suroor Saeed in his corner. If Mastery doesn’t fire it will be well worth noting, as bin Suroor Saeed has a number of horses in this years Breeders’ Cup.
Father Time finished fourth to Mastery in his last and also gets Lasix. He also is classier than the locals with his best effort.
Black Astor will try to steal the race and could very well do so at long odds if he can set a slow enough pace, but we think Nite Light
will take a round out of him at some point and set the race up for the ralliers.
If the big guns fail to fire, this race becomes wide open and every other horse in here actually has a chance to win. Might be best used as an ALL leg on your
multi-race exotic wagers.
2009 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies TURF Picks and Analysis for Race 4, Santa Anita
1. House of Grace 2. Tapitsfly 3. Smart Seattle 4. Longshots – Rose Catherine, Jungle Tale, La Nez
House of Grace made her debut on the turf at Saratoga this summer and smoked a decent field. She came right back to win on Pro Ride in her next start, defeating two of today’s rivals in Smart Seattle and Hatheer. She looks like a horse
that is better on turf, she comes into the race a perfect 2-for-2 and appears to be sitting on a huge race. We’re not sold on trainer McPeek, but he has had some success at the Breeders’ Cup.
Tapistfly is a risky pick for second, as wedon’t know if she’ll run as well with other speed like Rose Catherine in the race. If she can press and pounce however she should be the first to make a serious bid in the stretch. Smart Seattle has lost to Tapitsfly and she also blew a two
length lead in the stretch in her last (albeit on Pro Ride not Turf) to lose to House of Grace. She may be still learning however and can’t be counted out. Rose Catherine looks like the speed of the speed coming off a wire-to-wire victory going
six furlongs on the turf, but if she doesn’t get a clear lead she might just help set the race up for some longshot closers.
Jungle Tale is a sleeper with lower numbers who has overcome trouble in her last two starts.
European Lillie Langtry could outclass this field but she doesn’t get Lasix so we’re downgrading her chances at an unattractive short price.
Junia Tepzia is 2-for-2 in Italy and could be any kind, but remains a wildcard that could be used on deep tickets.
Lisa’s Kitten was impressive winning her last after trouble, but draws the tough wide post.
La Nez looks like a decent rallier but has never run on turf.
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2009 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Picks and Analysis
Race 5, Santa Anita
1. Always a Princess 2. Blind Luck 3. Bickersons 4. Connie and Michael
Always a Princess has hot and proven Breeders’ Cup winning trainer Bob Baffert in her corner and also gets top Pro Ride
jockey Gomez. Additionally, she has a running style change that intrigues us and a bullet work to follow. In her first start she was squeezed at the break and rallied from well back to win. In her next start, the Grade 1 Oak Leaf, she forced the pace
and opened up before succumbing late to one of today’s rivals, Blind Luck.
Based on the bullet work we’re thinking she’ll improve off that race and turn the tables today. Blind Luck is the logical choice off her Oak Leaf win, but we’re still not sure how trainer Hollendorfer’s horses will run in the Breeders’ Cup races. Bickersons finished a decent third in the Oak Leaf in her first start overPro Ride, has two sharp works coming into the race, is making her third start of the layoff and gets a positive rider switch to Rosario.Lots to like at a big price.
Connie and Michael will try to steal the race and might just be good enough to do so after scorching a95 Beyer Figure in her debut going seven furlongs.
Looking for longshots? Biofuel has a tough wide post, but did run a huge raceto win the Grade 3 Mazarine at Woodbine in her last with an impressive sweeping move and has worked well since.
Zilva fits the angleof running well on the class raise in the Alcibiades in her last and could get a perfect rail trip.
2009 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare TURF Picks and Analysis for Race 6, Santa Anita
1. Forever Together 2. Midday 3. Rutherienne 4. Longshot – Maram
Forever Together won this race last year and can do so again if she runs a similar race. And there’s no real reason to think she won’t. She makes her third start off the layofffor top trainer Jonathan Sheppard and has probably been pointing to this race all along. Her performance in her prep race for this,the same race she prepped in last year at Keeneland, wasn’t as good as last year’s winning effort, but it came over soft turf andshe was closing late. Appears set for a peak effort.
There is a slight chance that European shipper Midday is classier than this bunch.She comes into the race off a third place finish in the Grade 1 Prix de L’Opera for top trainer Henry Cecil and she gets first timeLasix, which could spell big improvement over already good form.
Rutherienne comes to battle every time she goes to post and can neverbe underestimated, but we’re wondering if she’ll be as effective at 1 1/4 miles.
Magical Fantasy will be well bet off four stakes winsin a row, three of them Grade 1s, but we’re not convinced she’s been beating anything in those races and we’ll take a stand against herin the win spot at a short price. We will however, be using her on some spreads in multi-race exotic tickets.
Maram is our longshot inhere. The winner of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at Santa Anita, she’s a neck away from being a perfect 5-for-5. We’renot sure if she’s seasoned enough to tackle these ladies at this stage of her career as she makes her second start off the layoffbut her trainer Chad Brown appears capable.
2009 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint Picks and Analysis Race 7, Santa Anita
1. Ventura 2. Informed Decision 3. Sara Louise 4. Longshots – Free Flying Soul, Only Green, Evita Argentina
Ventura is the defending champion in this race and there’s no reason to think she can’t repeat in 2009. She’ll be favored and rightlyso off her big win in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile over the turf in her last. It was the perfect prep for this race and it will take a huge effortby one of her rivals to defeat her and her rider/trainer team of Gomez and Frankel.
You can’t be faulted if you like secondchoice Informed Decision, trained by Jonathan Sheppard and coming into this race off two good wins in a row in graded company. We justdon’t think she can outkick Ventura at her best.
Sara Louise has the numbers to put her in the exactor and trainer bin Suroor Saeed in hercorner, but she has never raced on Pro Ride.
If the top pair fail to fire, she has an upset chance as do longshots Free Flying Soul, whowill try to steal the race, European Only Green, who gets first time Lasix, and Evita Argentina who has some class to go with her strongrecord of 3-1-0 from six starts at the distance.
2009 Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic Picks and Analysis Race 8, Santa Anita
1. Life is Sweet 2. Music Note 3. Careless Jewel 4. Longshot – Rainbow View
Everyone is jumping all over favorite Careless Jewel as the lone speed in this race but we’ll be taking a stand against her withhopes that someone can pressure her before the stretch. If they don’t she could be long gone.
Life is Sweet is an intriguing longshot with sharp trainer John Shirreffs in her corner and jockey Gomez in the saddle. She makes her second start off the layoff and is2-for-2 at Santa Anita at the distance, has some sharp works and appears to be coming into this race in perfect shape. At 8-1 she’s wortha shot.
Music Note finished third to super horse Zenyatta the last time she raced at Santa Anita, certainly no disgrace, and shecomes into this race off a victory in the Grade 1 Beldame for trainer bin Suroor Saeed at this distance at Belmont. Again, someone will likelyhave to take a round out of Careless Jewel at some point in order to set this race up for our top two picks. We’re hoping maybe Lethal Heatmight take a run at Careless Jewel early. Longshot players might want to include European Rainbow View on their tickets on the angle of firsttime Lasix for sharp trainer John Gosden.
Good Luck with the wagers!