2007 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Betting Odds and Handicapping Analysis
by Horse Handicapper Kenneth Strong of Predictem.com
9th Race, Monmouth Park, Friday, October 26
2-Year-Olds, 1 Mile, Turf, Purse $1 Million
2007 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Betting Analysis
Wagering Key: Win-Place-Show, Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta, Daily Double
What a great new race to add to the Breeders’ Cup slate. Full of top European entries with a smattering of solid North American runners, this may be the best betting race on the Friday card at Monmouth Park.
We’re looking for athletic runners that have already won a stake and that can also handle the tight turf course at Monmouth. Also keep in mind that this will be the first time many of the Europeans have had to go around two turns to win a race. First looks say the Europeans have the edge in class and fitness but that doesn’t mean to say the American runners are out of it. Far from it.
Among the European shippers, possible favorite ACHILL ISLAND comes into the race off a good second place finish in the Royal Lodge-G2 at Ascot, the same race that produced 2004 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Wilco, and his trainer Aiden OBrien has already won two Breeders Cup races with shippers. Hell also be ridden by top rider Johnny Murtagh. If you’re searching for a horse who knows how to travel you’ll want to take a close look at stretch-out sprinter STRIKE THE DEAL. A game sort with a beautiful pedigree that says he should get the distance, this youngster has run at seven different tracks and comes into the Juvenile Turf off a second place finish in the Middle Park Stakes-G1 at Newmarket, the same prep race that Johannesburg used to win the 2001 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Another plus is the rider, Frankie Dettori. DOMESTIC FUND may be the speediest of the Euros and comes into the race off a second-place finish in the Beresford Stakes-G2 at the Curragh.
Among the Americans, the Bill Mott trained PRUSSIAN could be favored when the bell rings. The Danzig colt is a perfect 2-for-2 over the turf and pressed early pace rivals while rating nicely before drawing out to win the one-mile Summer Stakes-G3 at Woodbine in workmanlike fashion. GIO PONTI is also enticing at a perfect 2-for-2 on the turf with the ability sit just off of a possible fast pace. CHEROKEE TRIANGLE is another who can sit just off the pace and based on his recent 11-length win in the Sunday Silence at Louisiana Downs he may be coming into his own at just the right time.
Looking for a real longshot? How about TEXAS FEVER, who has only raced (and won his last two including the Kentucky Cup Juvenile-G3) on Polytrack despite a good turf pedigree. He’s also got some breeding class, being out of a mare that is a 3/4 sister to Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus. And he gets Gomez! Yeah baby!
Below follow the early entries with morning line odds. Check back Thursday for our final selections.
2007 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Entries and Morning Line Betting Odds
1 Your Round 30-1
2 Cannonball 50-1
3 The Leopard 8-1
4 Cherokee Triangle 10-1
5 Strike the Deal 9-2
6 Gio Ponti 8-1
7 Nownownow 10-1
8 Achill Island (IRE) 7-2
9 Prussian 3-1
10 Preachin Man 50-1
11 Texas Fever 30-1
12 Domestic Fund (IRE) 5-1